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CS Cartagines v Deportivo Saprissa

CS Cartagines
1–0Full time
Deportivo Saprissa

Primera División · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 20:31
CS Cartagines 1–0 Deportivo Saprissa CS CARTAGINES WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said CS Cartagines win37%
The market said30%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.599
The market’s Brier score0.740

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 31 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said CS Cartagines win at 37%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: CS Cartagines was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–26–37
  3. 1′KICK-OFF CS Cartagines v Deportivo Saprissa
  4. 33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Deportivo Saprissa
  5. 36′🟥 RED CARD · 36' Deportivo Saprissa
  6. 37′A red card for Deportivo Saprissa on 37′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 32–35–32
  7. 41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was CS Cartagines win 32%)
  8. 43′We published CS Cartagines at 37%. Our model now makes it 69%. 1–0 · 69–22–9
  9. 43′⚽ GOAL · 43' CS Cartagines 1–0 Deportivo Saprissa
  10. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' CS Cartagines win: 37% at kick-off, 69% now
  11. 43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' CS Cartagines win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 22%)
  12. 44′CS Cartagines score on 44′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 69–22–9
  13. 45′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 69–22–9
  14. 45′SECOND HALF CS Cartagines 1–0 Deportivo Saprissa
  15. 46′We published CS Cartagines at 37%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–22–9
  16. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' CS Cartagines
  17. 47′🟨 YELLOW · 34' H. Medford · Deportivo Saprissa
  18. 49′We published CS Cartagines at 37%. Our model now makes it 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
  19. 49′⚽ GOAL · 49' CS Cartagines 2–0 Deportivo Saprissa
  20. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' CS Cartagines win: 37% at kick-off, 92% now
  21. 50′CS Cartagines find the net on 50′. 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–1
  22. 51′HALF-TIME CS Cartagines 1–0 Deportivo Saprissa
  23. 52′GOAL DISALLOWED · 52' CS Cartagines
  24. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' CS Cartagines win: 37% at kick-off, 71% now
  25. 56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' CS Cartagines
  26. 61′We published CS Cartagines at 37%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
  27. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' CS Cartagines win: 37% at kick-off, 77% now
  28. 70′We published CS Cartagines at 37%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
  29. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Deportivo Saprissa · On: O. Sinclair · Off: A. Soto
  30. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 70' CS Cartagines · On: A. Mora · Off: G. M. Morera
  31. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Deportivo Saprissa · On: B. Hernandez · Off: L. Paradela
  32. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 70' CS Cartagines · On: G. Castro · Off: C. Montero
  33. 78′We published CS Cartagines at 37%. Our model now makes it 86%. 1–0 · 86–13–1
  34. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' CS Cartagines win: 37% at kick-off, 87% now
  35. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' CS Cartagines · On: J. Gaete · Off: D. Gonzalez Hernandez
  36. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' CS Cartagines · On: J. Cortes · Off: Tepa
  37. 85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' CS Cartagines
  38. 89′We published CS Cartagines at 37%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  39. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 89' CS Cartagines · On: D. Lopez · Off: A. Hernandez
  40. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' CS Cartagines win: 37% at kick-off, 97% now
  41. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Deportivo Saprissa · On: A. Rodriguez · Off: N. Williams
  42. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Deportivo Saprissa · On: D. Guzman · Off: S. Acuna
  43. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Deportivo Saprissa · On: J. Mora · Off: J. M. Azofeifa Rivas
  44. 95′Full time, 1–0. We called CS Cartagines at 37% — that one lands. 1–0 · 100–0–0
  45. FTFULL TIME CS Cartagines 1–0 Deportivo Saprissa
  46. FTCS Cartagines 1–0 Deportivo Saprissa · CS Cartagines win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with CS Cartagines just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: CS Cartagines 37%, draw 26%, Deportivo Saprissa 37%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on CS Cartagines v Deportivo SaprissaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

CS Cartagines win37%
Draw26%
Deportivo Saprissa win37%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 18:00

RoundApertura · matchday 12

Line-ups

CS Cartagines

Deportivo Saprissa

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CS Cartagines

Deportivo Saprissa

4Days since last match2

Last match: 14 Oct · Primera División (Costa Rica)

Last match: 16 Oct · Primera División (Costa Rica)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Deportivo Saprissa11+1524
2CS Cartagines11+821

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

CS Cartagines

Formation not confirmed

1 K. Briceno

12 J. Quiros

2 R. Cordero

4 L. A. Olivas Salcedo

20 D. Mesen

19 D. Gonzalez Hernandez

15 L. Flores

6 C. Montero

31 G. M. Morera

22 A. Hernandez

9 Tepa

Coach · Amarini Villatoro

Substitutes

33 · C. Moya

21 · J. Cortes

39 · M. Villalobos

27 · J. Mora

26 · B. Alfaro

30 · A. Mora

8 · D. Lopez

11 · L. Alfaro

13 · J. Gaete

16 · G. Castro

Deportivo Saprissa

Formation not confirmed

40 A. Madriz

17 G. G. Taylor Dosman

4 K. Waston

21 F. Escobar

22 J. M. Azofeifa Rivas

25 S. Acuna

28 G. Torres

20 M. Torres

26 A. Soto

23 L. Paradela

7 N. Williams

Coach · Hernan Medford

Substitutes

89 · M. Alvarez

3 · P. Arboine

5 · J. Mora

8 · D. Guzman

6 · O. Duarte

39 · A. Barahona

46 · D. Woodly

11 · B. Hernandez

24 · O. Sinclair

14 · A. Rodriguez

Our number · cs cartagines winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 00:10 · locked at kick-off
37% The market30%
Us37%
Market30%

We make CS Cartagines a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · CS Cartagines v Deportivo Saprissa1.38 – 1.38
Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 30 AugW4 D0 L2 · W4 D0 L2
Table places · points 21 v 242 v 1
The market · CS Cartagines win30% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
25%30%35%40% 12 OCT 04:0018 OCT 17:28
Our probability · CS Cartagines win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 37% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
CS Cartagines win37%30%+7
Draw26%31%−5
Deportivo Saprissa win37%39%−2
Over 2.5 goals52%48%+4
Both teams to score56%54%+2
Over 1.5 goals76%72%+4
Over 3.5 goals30%28%+2
CS Cartagines or draw63%61%+2
CS Cartagines clean sheet25%––
Deportivo Saprissa clean sheet25%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%
0123450 6.6 8.6 6.0 2.8 1 8.6 12.1 8.2 3.8 2 6.0 8.2 5.6 2.6 3 2.8 3.8 2.6 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+CS Cartagines down, Deportivo Saprissa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting3.10
Over 2.58 of 10
Both scored7 of 10
Last meetingsCSC 3–2 DEP · DEP 2–2 CSC · DEP 3–2 CSC · CSC 2–1 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 30 Aug

CS CARTAGINES

WWWLLW1–0 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 3–1

DEPORTIVO SAPRISSA

WWLWLW2–1 · 2–0 · 2–4 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 6–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Deportivo Saprissa11+1524
2CS Cartagines11+821
3Sporting San Jose11+420
4LD Alajuelense12+619
5San Carlos11−118
6Inter San Carlos12−318
7Puntarenas FC11−712
8Escorpiones Belén11−510
9Perez Zeledon11−109
10CS Herediano11−78

The competition's standings before kick-off.