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Santa Cruz FC v ADR Jicaral

Santa Cruz FC

0–3Full time

ADR Jicaral

Liga de Ascenso · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 22:30

Santa Cruz FC 0–3 ADR Jicaral ADR JICARAL WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said ADR Jicaral win~~52%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.346

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.238

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said ADR Jicaral win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: ADR Jicaral 52% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 21–26–53
21′5′ and it is 0–1: ADR Jicaral have scored. 0–1 · 6–15–79
42′Santa Cruz FC are down to ten from 35′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 4–15–81
45′ADR Jicaral find the net on 45′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–96
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' ADR Jicaral win: 52% at kick-off, 81% now
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' ADR Jicaral win: 52% at kick-off, 96% now
57′Santa Cruz FC are down to ten from 35′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–2 · 0–2–98
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' ADR Jicaral win: 52% at kick-off, 96% now
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' ADR Jicaral win: 52% at kick-off, 81% now
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' ADR Jicaral win: 52% at kick-off, 98% now
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' ADR Jicaral win: 52% at kick-off, 98% now
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' ADR Jicaral win: 52% at kick-off, 81% now
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' ADR Jicaral win: 52% at kick-off, 81% now
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' ADR Jicaral win: 52% at kick-off, 98% now
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' ADR Jicaral win: 52% at kick-off, 98% now
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' ADR Jicaral win: 52% at kick-off, 81% now
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' ADR Jicaral win: 52% at kick-off, 98% now
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' ADR Jicaral win: 52% at kick-off, 81% now
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' ADR Jicaral win: 52% at kick-off, 81% now
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' ADR Jicaral win: 52% at kick-off, 98% now
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' ADR Jicaral win: 52% at kick-off, 98% now
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' ADR Jicaral win: 52% at kick-off, 81% now
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' ADR Jicaral win: 52% at kick-off, 81% now
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' ADR Jicaral win: 52% at kick-off, 98% now
65′ADR Jicaral find the net on 45′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' ADR Jicaral win: 52% at kick-off, 81% now
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' ADR Jicaral win: 52% at kick-off, 98% now
78′We said ADR Jicaral at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–99
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Santa Cruz FC 0–3 ADR Jicaral
FTFULL TIME Santa Cruz FC 0–3 ADR Jicaral
FTSanta Cruz FC 0–3 ADR Jicaral · ADR Jicaral win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Santa Cruz FC win21%

Draw27%

ADR Jicaral win52%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 20:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Santa Cruz FC

ADR Jicaral

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	ADR Jicaral	9	+10	21
13	Santa Cruz FC	9	−8	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · adr jicaral winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

52% The market60%

Us52%

~~Market~~60%

We make ADR Jicaral a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · adr jicaral win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Santa Cruz FC win	21%	16%	+5
Draw	27%	23%	+3
ADR Jicaral win	52%	60%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	42%	53%	−10
Both teams to score	45%	50%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	69%	76%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	22%	33%	−11
Santa Cruz FC or draw	48%	40%	+8
Santa Cruz FC clean sheet	22%	–	–
ADR Jicaral clean sheet	43%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.7%

0123450 10.0 13.7 10.6 5.4 2.1 1 7.6 12.2 8.8 4.5 2 3.5 5.1 3.8 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Santa Cruz FC down, ADR Jicaral across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,473 Liga de Ascenso matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga de Ascenso matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.7% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.60 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Santa Cruz FC at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). ADR Jicaral away: 0.67 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.86 goals for Santa Cruz FC, 1.52 for ADR Jicaral. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~ADR 4–1 SAN · ADR 0–0 SAN · SAN 1–1 ADR · SAN 2–2 ADR

Form · last six in Liga de Ascenso

SANTA CRUZ FC

LLWLLL1–4 · 1–2 · 4–0 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 0–1

ADR JICARAL

WWDDWW4–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aserri FC	17	+3	27
2	Santa Ana	11	+9	24
3	ADR Jicaral	9	+10	21
4	Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC	10	+5	19
5	Quepos Cambute	9	+6	16
6	AD Carmelita	11	+6	15
7	Municipal Grecia	8	+3	14
8	Cariari Pococi	10	0	13
9	Guadalupe FC	11	−4	12
10	AD Sarchí	8	−3	11
11	CS Uruguay	11	−14	9
12	Futbol Consultants Moravia	9	−4	7
13	Santa Cruz FC	9	−8	6
14	AD Cofutpa	9	−9	4