Santa Ana v Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC prediction · Liga de Ascenso

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 22:30

Santa Ana 2–1 Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC SANTA ANA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Santa Ana win~~47%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.414

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.389

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Santa Ana win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Santa Ana was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–25–28
1′KICK-OFF Santa Ana v Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
13′Santa Ana find the net on 12′. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–17–11
13′We published Santa Ana at 47%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–17–11
13′⚽ GOAL · 12' Santa Ana 1–0 Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Santa Ana win: 47% at kick-off, 72% now
19′A goal for Santa Ana on 19′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 90–7–3
19′We published Santa Ana at 47%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–0 · 90–7–3
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Santa Ana 2–0 Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Santa Ana win: 47% at kick-off, 90% now
45′HALF-TIME Santa Ana 2–0 Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
46′SECOND HALF Santa Ana 2–0 Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
50′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 2–0 · 94–5–1
52′We published Santa Ana at 47%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Santa Ana win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
82′We published Santa Ana at 47%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
86′Santa Ana score on 86′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
86′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Santa Ana 3–0 Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
87′GOAL DISALLOWED · 87' Santa Ana
92′Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC score on 90′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 97–3–0
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Santa Ana 2–1 Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
FTFULL TIME Santa Ana 2–1 Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
FTSanta Ana 2–1 Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC · Santa Ana win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Santa Ana are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Santa Ana 47%, draw 25%, Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 28%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Santa Ana v Pitbulls Santa Barbara FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Santa Ana win47%

Draw25%

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC win28%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueEstadio de Piedades

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Santa Ana

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC

8Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga de Ascenso

Last match: 13 Oct · Liga de Ascenso

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Santa Ana	11	+9	24
4	Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC	11	+5	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · santa ana winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market49%

Us47%

~~Market~~49%

We make Santa Ana a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Santa Ana v Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC~~1.67 – 1.22

~~Form · last six in Liga de Ascenso this season · since 13 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 24 v 20~~3 v 4

~~The market · Santa Ana win~~49% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Santa Ana win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Santa Ana win	47%	49%	−2
Draw	25%	25%	0
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC win	28%	26%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	55%	57%	−2
Both teams to score	56%	59%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	78%	79%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	33%	37%	−4
Santa Ana or draw	72%	74%	−2
Santa Ana clean sheet	30%	–	–
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.3 6.7 4.2 1 9.2 11.4 6.7 2.8 2 7.7 9.1 5.5 2.3 3 4.3 5.1 3.1 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Santa Ana down, Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,481 Liga de Ascenso matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga de Ascenso matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 79 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.60 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Santa Ana at home: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Santa Ana, 1.22 for Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.60

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~PIT 2–0 SAN · PIT 2–1 SAN · SAN 1–2 PIT · SAN 0–0 PIT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga de Ascenso this season · since 13 Sept

SANTA ANA

WLLWWW2–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 5–0

PITBULLS SANTA BARBARA FC

WWLDDD3–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aserri FC	21	+1	32
2	ADR Jicaral	10	+13	24
3	Santa Ana	11	+9	24
4	Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC	11	+5	20
5	Quepos Cambute	10	+7	19
6	Cariari Pococi	12	0	16
7	AD Carmelita	11	+6	15
8	Municipal Grecia	9	+3	15
9	Guadalupe FC	12	−3	15
10	Futbol Consultants Moravia	12	0	13
11	AD Sarchí	9	−4	11
12	CS Uruguay	12	−16	9
13	Santa Cruz FC	11	−12	6
14	AD Cofutpa	9	−9	4