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Quepos Cambute v AD Sarchí

Quepos Cambute

2–1Full time

AD Sarchí

Liga de Ascenso · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 22:30

Quepos Cambute 2–1 AD Sarchí QUEPOS CAMBUTE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Quepos Cambute win~~54%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.322

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.247

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Quepos Cambute win at 54%.
2′Much as we predicted: Quepos Cambute was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–24–22
22′A goal for Quepos Cambute on 19′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 78–15–7
43′We published Quepos Cambute at 54%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–16–5
45′A goal for Quepos Cambute on 19′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–16–5
64′Quepos Cambute find the net on 64′. 2–1. 2–1 · 83–15–2
72′Quepos Cambute find the net on 64′. 2–1. 2–1 · 86–12–1
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Quepos Cambute win: 54% at kick-off, 83% now
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Quepos Cambute win: 54% at kick-off, 86% now
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Quepos Cambute win: 54% at kick-off, 86% now
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Quepos Cambute win: 54% at kick-off, 83% now
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Quepos Cambute win: 54% at kick-off, 83% now
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Quepos Cambute win: 54% at kick-off, 86% now
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Quepos Cambute win: 54% at kick-off, 83% now
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Quepos Cambute win: 54% at kick-off, 86% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Quepos Cambute win: 54% at kick-off, 83% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Quepos Cambute win: 54% at kick-off, 86% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Quepos Cambute win: 54% at kick-off, 86% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Quepos Cambute win: 54% at kick-off, 83% now
85′We published Quepos Cambute at 54%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Quepos Cambute win: 54% at kick-off, 83% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Quepos Cambute win: 54% at kick-off, 86% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Quepos Cambute win: 54% at kick-off, 95% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Quepos Cambute win: 54% at kick-off, 86% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Quepos Cambute win: 54% at kick-off, 95% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Quepos Cambute win: 54% at kick-off, 86% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Quepos Cambute win: 54% at kick-off, 95% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Quepos Cambute win: 54% at kick-off, 95% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Quepos Cambute win: 54% at kick-off, 86% now
FTFULL TIME Quepos Cambute 2–1 AD Sarchí
FTQuepos Cambute 2–1 AD Sarchí · Quepos Cambute win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Quepos Cambute win54%

Draw24%

AD Sarchí win22%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 20:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Quepos Cambute

AD Sarchí

8Days since last match14

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Quepos Cambute	9	+6	16
10	AD Sarchí	8	−3	11

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · quepos cambute winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

54% The market59%

Us54%

~~Market~~59%

We make Quepos Cambute a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · quepos cambute win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Quepos Cambute win	54%	59%	−6
Draw	24%	23%	+1
AD Sarchí win	22%	18%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	54%	55%	−1
Both teams to score	54%	52%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	77%	77%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	35%	−2
Quepos Cambute or draw	78%	82%	−5
Quepos Cambute clean sheet	35%	–	–
AD Sarchí clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 6.5 5.9 3.3 1 10.1 11.1 5.7 2.1 2 9.1 9.4 5.0 3 5.5 5.6 3.0 4 2.5 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Quepos Cambute down, AD Sarchí across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,473 Liga de Ascenso matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga de Ascenso matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.7% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

17 previous meetings, 2.65 goals a meeting; 9 of 17 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Quepos Cambute at home: 1.83 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). AD Sarchí away: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.79 goals for Quepos Cambute, 1.06 for AD Sarchí. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

17 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.65

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 17

~~Both scored~~11 of 17

~~Last meetings~~ADS 1–1 QUE · QUE 2–0 ADS · ADS 2–2 QUE · ADS 1–3 QUE

Form · last six in Liga de Ascenso

QUEPOS CAMBUTE

DWLWWL1–1 · 3–0 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–1

AD SARCHÍ

DLWLWL1–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 2–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aserri FC	17	+3	27
2	Santa Ana	11	+9	24
3	ADR Jicaral	9	+10	21
4	Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC	10	+5	19
5	Quepos Cambute	9	+6	16
6	AD Carmelita	11	+6	15
7	Municipal Grecia	8	+3	14
8	Cariari Pococi	10	0	13
9	Guadalupe FC	11	−4	12
10	AD Sarchí	8	−3	11
11	CS Uruguay	11	−14	9
12	Futbol Consultants Moravia	9	−4	7
13	Santa Cruz FC	9	−8	6
14	AD Cofutpa	9	−9	4