Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC v Aserri FC prediction · Liga de Ascenso

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 05:57

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 2–2 Aserri FC PITBULLS SANTA BARBARA FC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC win~~52%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.868

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.843

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–25–23
1′KICK-OFF Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC v Aserri FC
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
45′SECOND HALF Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 0–0 Aserri FC
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 1–0 Aserri FC
62′⚽ GOAL · 63' Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 1–0 Aserri FC
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 2–0 Aserri FC
79′⚽ GOAL · 80' Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 2–0 Aserri FC
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 2–1 Aserri FC
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 2–1 Aserri FC
94′⚽ GOAL · 94' Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 2–2 Aserri FC
FTFULL TIME Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 2–2 Aserri FC
FTPitbulls Santa Barbara FC 2–2 Aserri FC · Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 01:30 · locked at kick-off

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC win52%

Draw26%

Aserri FC win23%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 02:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC

Aserri FC

10Days since last match1

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aserri FC	18	+3	28
5	Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC	10	+5	19

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pitbulls santa barbara fc winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 01:30 · locked at kick-off

52% The market50%

Us52%

~~Market~~50%

We make Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · pitbulls santa barbara fc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC win	52%	50%	+1
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Aserri FC win	23%	23%	0
Over 2.5 goals	46%	51%	−4
Both teams to score	48%	53%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	72%	73%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	25%	31%	−6
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC or draw	77%	77%	0
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC clean sheet	39%	–	–
Aserri FC clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.2%

0123450 8.6 7.3 3.6 1 12.2 12.0 5.6 2 9.8 9.1 4.4 3 5.3 4.9 2.3 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC down, Aserri FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,477 Liga de Ascenso matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga de Ascenso matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.0% of games this season, across 75 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 1.20 goals a meeting; 0 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Aserri FC away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC, 0.95 for Aserri FC. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.20

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~ASE 1–1 PIT · PIT 0–0 ASE · ASE 1–0 PIT · ASE 1–0 PIT

Form · last six in Liga de Ascenso

PITBULLS SANTA BARBARA FC

WWWLDD2–1 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 2–2

ASERRI FC

DWLWLD1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aserri FC	18	+3	28
2	ADR Jicaral	10	+13	24
3	Santa Ana	11	+9	24
4	Quepos Cambute	10	+7	19
5	Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC	10	+5	19
6	Cariari Pococi	11	+1	16
7	AD Carmelita	11	+6	15
8	Municipal Grecia	9	+3	15
9	Guadalupe FC	11	−4	12
10	AD Sarchí	9	−4	11
11	CS Uruguay	11	−14	9
12	Futbol Consultants Moravia	10	−5	7
13	Santa Cruz FC	10	−11	6
14	AD Cofutpa	9	−9	4