Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC v AD Carmelita prediction · Liga de Ascenso

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FCDrawAD Carmelita

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 01:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 47%, draw 26%, AD Carmelita 27%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC v AD CarmelitaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC win47%

Draw26%

AD Carmelita win27%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 01:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC

AD Carmelita

9Days since last match9

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga de Ascenso

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC	12	+4	20
9	AD Carmelita	12	+6	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pitbulls santa barbara fc winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC v AD Carmelita~~1.54 – 1.11

~~Form · last six in Liga de Ascenso this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 20 v 16~~4 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC win	47%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
AD Carmelita win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC or draw	73%	–	–
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC clean sheet	34%	–	–
AD Carmelita clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.7 7.7 4.4 1 10.7 12.1 6.5 2.5 2 8.4 9.0 4.9 3 4.3 4.7 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC down, AD Carmelita across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,488 Liga de Ascenso matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga de Ascenso matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.3% of games this season, across 86 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC at home: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). AD Carmelita away: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC, 1.11 for AD Carmelita. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~ADC 1–2 PIT · ADC 1–0 PIT · PIT 0–0 ADC · PIT 2–0 ADC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga de Ascenso this season · since 13 Sept

PITBULLS SANTA BARBARA FC

WLDDDL1–0 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 1–2

AD CARMELITA

DWWWLD1–1 · 6–0 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aserri FC	23	−4	33
2	Santa Ana	13	+8	27
3	ADR Jicaral	10	+13	24
4	Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC	12	+4	20
5	Quepos Cambute	11	+6	19
6	Municipal Grecia	11	+2	18
7	Guadalupe FC	13	−2	18
8	AD Sarchí	11	+3	17
9	AD Carmelita	12	+6	16
10	Futbol Consultants Moravia	13	+2	16
11	Cariari Pococi	12	0	16
12	CS Uruguay	13	−17	9
13	AD Cofutpa	11	−9	7
14	Santa Cruz FC	11	−12	6