Home › Football › Liga de Ascenso › Municipal Grecia v Aserri FC

Municipal Grecia v Aserri FC

Municipal Grecia

2–2Full time

Aserri FC

Liga de Ascenso · MON 12 OCT

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 04:09

Municipal Grecia 2–2 Aserri FC MUNICIPAL GRECIA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Municipal Grecia win~~50%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.865

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.820

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Municipal Grecia win at 50%.
1′Much as we predicted: Municipal Grecia was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–25–25
1′KICK-OFF Municipal Grecia v Aserri FC
6′Much as we predicted: Municipal Grecia was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–26–24
9′9′ and it is 0–1: Aserri FC have scored. 0–1 · 24–25–51
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Municipal Grecia 0–1 Aserri FC
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Municipal Grecia win: 50% at kick-off, 24% now
9′THE CALL SWINGS · 9' Aserri FC win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Municipal Grecia win 24%)
10′9′ and it is 0–1: Aserri FC have scored. 0–1 · 24–25–51
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Municipal Grecia win: 50% at kick-off, 49% now
10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Municipal Grecia win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Aserri FC win 24%)
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Municipal Grecia win: 50% at kick-off, 24% now
10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Aserri FC win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Municipal Grecia win 24%)
12′We said Municipal Grecia at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 23–25–52
13′We said Municipal Grecia at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 23–25–52
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Municipal Grecia win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Municipal Grecia win: 50% at kick-off, 21% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Municipal Grecia win: 50% at kick-off, 21% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Municipal Grecia win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
26′We said Municipal Grecia at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–26–55
27′We said Municipal Grecia at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–26–55
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 18–26–56
31′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 18–26–56
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Municipal Grecia win: 50% at kick-off, 16% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Aserri FC win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Municipal Grecia win 16%)
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Municipal Grecia win: 50% at kick-off, 16% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Aserri FC win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Municipal Grecia win 16%)
45′HALF-TIME Municipal Grecia 0–1 Aserri FC
46′SECOND HALF Municipal Grecia 0–1 Aserri FC
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Municipal Grecia 1–1 Aserri FC
67′⚽ GOAL · 66' Municipal Grecia 2–1 Aserri FC
90′⚽ GOAL · 94' Municipal Grecia 2–2 Aserri FC
FTFULL TIME Municipal Grecia 2–2 Aserri FC
FTMunicipal Grecia 2–2 Aserri FC · Municipal Grecia win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Municipal Grecia win50%

Draw26%

Aserri FC win24%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 01:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Municipal Grecia

Aserri FC

8Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aserri FC	17	+3	27
8	Municipal Grecia	8	+3	14

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · municipal grecia winPublished 12 Oct 01:00

50% The market46%

Us50%

~~Market~~46%

We make Municipal Grecia a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · municipal grecia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Municipal Grecia win	50%	46%	+4
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Aserri FC win	24%	27%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	49%	52%	−3
Both teams to score	51%	55%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	74%	74%	0
Over 3.5 goals	28%	32%	−4
Municipal Grecia or draw	76%	73%	+2
Municipal Grecia clean sheet	36%	–	–
Aserri FC clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 7.8 7.1 3.9 1 11.1 11.9 6.0 2.1 2 9.1 9.2 4.8 3 4.9 5.0 2.6 4 2.0 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Municipal Grecia down, Aserri FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,474 Liga de Ascenso matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga de Ascenso matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Municipal Grecia at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Aserri FC away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Municipal Grecia, 1.04 for Aserri FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ASE 3–2 MUN

Form · last six in Liga de Ascenso

MUNICIPAL GRECIA

LWDDLW2–3 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0

ASERRI FC

WDWLWL1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aserri FC	17	+3	27
2	Santa Ana	11	+9	24
3	ADR Jicaral	9	+10	21
4	Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC	10	+5	19
5	Quepos Cambute	9	+6	16
6	Cariari Pococi	11	+1	16
7	AD Carmelita	11	+6	15
8	Municipal Grecia	8	+3	14
9	Guadalupe FC	11	−4	12
10	AD Sarchí	8	−3	11
11	CS Uruguay	11	−14	9
12	Futbol Consultants Moravia	10	−5	7
13	Santa Cruz FC	9	−8	6
14	AD Cofutpa	9	−9	4