Municipal Grecia v AD Cofutpa prediction · Liga de Ascenso

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Municipal GreciaDrawAD Cofutpa

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 01:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Municipal Grecia 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Municipal Grecia are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Municipal Grecia 51%, draw 23%, AD Cofutpa 26%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Municipal Grecia v AD CofutpaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Municipal Grecia win51%

Draw23%

AD Cofutpa win26%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 01:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Municipal Grecia

AD Cofutpa

7Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga de Ascenso

Last match: 20 Oct · Liga de Ascenso

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Municipal Grecia	10	+1	15
13	AD Cofutpa	10	−8	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · municipal grecia winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 21 Oct 00:10 · locked at kick-off

51% The market62%

Us51%

~~Market~~62%

We make Municipal Grecia a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Municipal Grecia v AD Cofutpa~~1.82 – 1.23

~~Form · last six in Liga de Ascenso this season · since 8 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 15 v 7~~8 v 13

~~The market · Municipal Grecia win~~62% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Municipal Grecia win The market, margin stripped

Published at 52%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Municipal Grecia win	51%	62%	−11
Draw	23%	23%	0
AD Cofutpa win	26%	16%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	58%	54%	+4
Both teams to score	58%	51%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	80%	76%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	36%	33%	+3
Municipal Grecia or draw	74%	84%	−10
Municipal Grecia clean sheet	30%	–	–
AD Cofutpa clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.3 5.7 3.6 1 8.5 10.7 6.4 2.7 2 7.8 9.3 5.7 2.4 3 4.8 5.6 3.5 4 2.2 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Municipal Grecia down, AD Cofutpa across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,485 Liga de Ascenso matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga de Ascenso matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.6% of games this season, across 83 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.22 goals a meeting; 3 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Municipal Grecia at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). AD Cofutpa away: 0.83 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.82 goals for Municipal Grecia, 1.23 for AD Cofutpa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.22

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 9

~~Both scored~~6 of 9

~~Last meetings~~ADC 0–0 MUN · MUN 1–1 ADC · ADC 0–2 MUN · ADC 0–2 MUN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga de Ascenso this season · since 8 Sept

MUNICIPAL GRECIA

DDLWDL0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–2

AD COFUTPA

DLLWLW0–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aserri FC	22	+1	33
2	Santa Ana	12	+10	27
3	ADR Jicaral	10	+13	24
4	Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC	12	+4	20
5	Quepos Cambute	11	+6	19
6	AD Carmelita	12	+6	16
7	Cariari Pococi	12	0	16
8	Municipal Grecia	10	+1	15
9	Guadalupe FC	12	−3	15
10	AD Sarchí	10	−2	14
11	Futbol Consultants Moravia	12	0	13
12	CS Uruguay	12	−16	9
13	AD Cofutpa	10	−8	7
14	Santa Cruz FC	11	−12	6