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Guadalupe FC v Cariari Pococi

Guadalupe FC

1–0Full time

Cariari Pococi

Liga de Ascenso · SAT 17 OCT · Estadio Coyella Fonseca

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 05:01

Guadalupe FC 1–0 Cariari Pococi GUADALUPE FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Guadalupe FC win~~45%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.447

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.389

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Guadalupe FC win at 45%.
1′KICK-OFF Guadalupe FC v Cariari Pococi
2′Little has changed for our model: Guadalupe FC 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–25–29
45′SECOND HALF Guadalupe FC 0–0 Cariari Pococi
46′HALF-TIME Guadalupe FC 0–0 Cariari Pococi
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Guadalupe FC win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Guadalupe FC win 35%)
50′We said Guadalupe FC at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Guadalupe FC 1–0 Cariari Pococi
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Guadalupe FC win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Guadalupe FC win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 19%)
50′GOAL DISALLOWED · 50' Guadalupe FC
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Guadalupe FC win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Guadalupe FC win 35%)
51′A goal for Guadalupe FC on 50′. 0–0 · 34–41–24
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Guadalupe FC win: 45% at kick-off, 34% now
54′We said Guadalupe FC at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–43–24
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.9 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 33–44–23
63′We said Guadalupe FC at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–51–21
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Guadalupe FC win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
71′We said Guadalupe FC at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–60–17
76′We said Guadalupe FC at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–67–14
80′We said Guadalupe FC at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–75–11
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Guadalupe FC win: 45% at kick-off, 14% now
84′We said Guadalupe FC at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–7
85′We said Guadalupe FC at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 1–0 · 93–6–0
85′⚽ GOAL · 50' Guadalupe FC 1–0 Cariari Pococi
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Guadalupe FC win: 45% at kick-off, 93% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Guadalupe FC win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 6%)
86′Guadalupe FC score on 85′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 94–6–0
88′We said Guadalupe FC at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Guadalupe FC win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
94′1–0 at the end. Our 45% on Guadalupe FC comes in. 1–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Guadalupe FC 1–0 Cariari Pococi
FTGuadalupe FC 1–0 Cariari Pococi · Guadalupe FC win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Guadalupe FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Guadalupe FC 45%, draw 25%, Cariari Pococi 30%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Guadalupe FC v Cariari PocociBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Guadalupe FC win45%

Draw25%

Cariari Pococi win30%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 02:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueEstadio Coyella Fonseca

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Guadalupe FC

Cariari Pococi

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga de Ascenso

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga de Ascenso

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Cariari Pococi	11	+1	16
9	Guadalupe FC	11	−4	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · guadalupe fc winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 16 Oct 23:05 · locked at kick-off

45% The market49%

Us45%

~~Market~~49%

We make Guadalupe FC a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Guadalupe FC v Cariari Pococi~~1.61 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in Liga de Ascenso this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 16~~9 v 6

~~The market · Guadalupe FC win~~49% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Guadalupe FC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Guadalupe FC win	45%	49%	−4
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Cariari Pococi win	30%	25%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	54%	54%	0
Both teams to score	56%	57%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	77%	77%	0
Over 3.5 goals	32%	34%	−2
Guadalupe FC or draw	70%	75%	−5
Guadalupe FC clean sheet	30%	–	–
Cariari Pococi clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.5 7.0 4.5 1 9.1 11.6 6.9 2.9 2 7.4 8.9 5.5 2.3 3 4.0 4.8 3.0 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Guadalupe FC down, Cariari Pococi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,478 Liga de Ascenso matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga de Ascenso matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.6% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Guadalupe FC at home: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Cariari Pococi away: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Guadalupe FC, 1.24 for Cariari Pococi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CAR 3–3 GUA · GUA 0–0 CAR · CAR 3–1 GUA · CAR 3–1 GUA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga de Ascenso this season · since 6 Sept

GUADALUPE FC

LLLDWW0–1 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 2–0

CARIARI POCOCI

LWDLLW0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aserri FC	20	0	29
2	ADR Jicaral	10	+13	24
3	Santa Ana	11	+9	24
4	Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC	11	+5	20
5	Quepos Cambute	10	+7	19
6	Cariari Pococi	11	+1	16
7	AD Carmelita	11	+6	15
8	Municipal Grecia	9	+3	15
9	Guadalupe FC	11	−4	12
10	AD Sarchí	9	−4	11
11	Futbol Consultants Moravia	11	−2	10
12	CS Uruguay	11	−14	9
13	Santa Cruz FC	10	−11	6
14	AD Cofutpa	9	−9	4