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CS Uruguay v Santa Ana

CS Uruguay

0–5Full time

Santa Ana

Liga de Ascenso · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 23:31

CS Uruguay 0–5 Santa Ana CS URUGUAY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CS Uruguay win~~38%

~~The market said~~30%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.600

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.487

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said CS Uruguay win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: CS Uruguay 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–24–37
1′KICK-OFF CS Uruguay v Santa Ana
2′Little has changed for our model: CS Uruguay 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–25–37
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' CS Uruguay 0–1 Santa Ana
45′HALF-TIME CS Uruguay 0–1 Santa Ana
46′SECOND HALF CS Uruguay 0–1 Santa Ana
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' CS Uruguay 0–2 Santa Ana
54′🟥 RED CARD · 53' CS Uruguay
58′⚽ GOAL · 57' CS Uruguay 0–3 Santa Ana
65′⚽ GOAL · 66' CS Uruguay 0–3 Santa Ana
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' CS Uruguay 0–4 Santa Ana
76′⚽ GOAL · 45' CS Uruguay 0–4 Santa Ana
76′⚽ GOAL · 51' CS Uruguay 0–4 Santa Ana
76′🟥 RED CARD · 53' CS Uruguay
76′⚽ GOAL · 57' CS Uruguay 0–4 Santa Ana
76′⚽ GOAL · 66' CS Uruguay 0–4 Santa Ana
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' CS Uruguay 0–5 Santa Ana
89′⚽ GOAL · 88' CS Uruguay 0–5 Santa Ana
FTFULL TIME CS Uruguay 0–5 Santa Ana
FTCS Uruguay 0–5 Santa Ana · CS Uruguay win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

CS Uruguay win38%

Draw25%

Santa Ana win37%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 21:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cs uruguay winPublished 10 Oct 21:03

38% The market30%

Us38%

~~Market~~30%

We make CS Uruguay a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cs uruguay win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CS Uruguay win	38%	30%	+8
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Santa Ana win	37%	43%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	57%	51%	+6
Both teams to score	60%	56%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	80%	75%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	35%	31%	+4
CS Uruguay or draw	63%	57%	+6
CS Uruguay clean sheet	23%	–	–
Santa Ana clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 5.7 7.2 5.6 2.8 1 7.3 11.4 8.1 4.1 2 5.7 8.2 6.0 3.0 3 2.9 4.2 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CS Uruguay down, Santa Ana across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,471 Liga de Ascenso matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga de Ascenso matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.7% of games this season, across 69 played.

Head to head

17 previous meetings, 3.18 goals a meeting; 10 of 17 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CS Uruguay at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Santa Ana away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for CS Uruguay, 1.49 for Santa Ana. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

17 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.18

~~Over 2.5~~10 of 17

~~Both scored~~9 of 17

~~Last meetings~~SAN 3–1 CSU · SAN 5–3 CSU · CSU 4–1 SAN · CSU 0–2 SAN

Form · last six in Liga de Ascenso

CS URUGUAY

WWLLDD1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–6 · 1–1 · 2–2

SANTA ANA

WWLLWW2–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aserri FC	17	+3	27
2	ADR Jicaral	9	+10	21
3	Santa Ana	10	+4	21
4	Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC	10	+5	19
5	Quepos Cambute	9	+6	16
6	AD Carmelita	10	+8	15
7	Municipal Grecia	8	+3	14
8	Cariari Pococi	10	0	13
9	AD Sarchí	8	−3	11
10	Guadalupe FC	10	−6	9
11	CS Uruguay	10	−9	9
12	Futbol Consultants Moravia	9	−4	7
13	Santa Cruz FC	9	−8	6
14	AD Cofutpa	9	−9	4