CS Uruguay v Guadalupe FC prediction · Liga de Ascenso

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 23:31

CS Uruguay 1–2 Guadalupe FC GUADALUPE FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Guadalupe FC win~~40%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.541

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.389

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Guadalupe FC win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Guadalupe FC 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 36–24–40
1′KICK-OFF CS Uruguay v Guadalupe FC
45′HALF-TIME CS Uruguay 1–0 Guadalupe FC
46′CS Uruguay find the net on 45′. 1–0. 1–0 · 67–22–11
46′⚽ GOAL · 45' CS Uruguay 1–0 Guadalupe FC
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Guadalupe FC win: 40% at kick-off, 11% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' CS Uruguay win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Guadalupe FC win 35%)
46′SECOND HALF CS Uruguay 1–0 Guadalupe FC
47′We said Guadalupe FC at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 1–0 · 67–22–11
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Guadalupe FC win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
51′A goal for Guadalupe FC on 50′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 29–39–32
51′⚽ GOAL · 50' CS Uruguay 1–1 Guadalupe FC
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Guadalupe FC win: 40% at kick-off, 32% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was CS Uruguay win 68%)
52′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–1 · 29–40–31
55′Guadalupe FC score on 55′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 7–21–72
55′We said Guadalupe FC at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–2 · 7–21–72
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' CS Uruguay 1–2 Guadalupe FC
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Guadalupe FC win: 40% at kick-off, 72% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Guadalupe FC win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 41%)
61′We said Guadalupe FC at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–2 · 6–20–75
71′We said Guadalupe FC at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Guadalupe FC win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
78′We said Guadalupe FC at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 1–13–85
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Guadalupe FC win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
84′We said Guadalupe FC at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 1–2 · 0–8–91
89′We said Guadalupe FC at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
FTFULL TIME CS Uruguay 1–2 Guadalupe FC
FTCS Uruguay 1–2 Guadalupe FC · Guadalupe FC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Guadalupe FC just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: CS Uruguay 36%, draw 24%, Guadalupe FC 40%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on CS Uruguay v Guadalupe FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

CS Uruguay win36%

Draw24%

Guadalupe FC win40%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 21:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CS Uruguay

Guadalupe FC

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga de Ascenso

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Guadalupe FC	12	−3	15
12	CS Uruguay	12	−16	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · guadalupe fc winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

40% The market49%

Us40%

~~Market~~49%

We make Guadalupe FC a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · CS Uruguay v Guadalupe FC~~1.50 – 1.61

~~Form · last six in Liga de Ascenso this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 15~~12 v 9

~~The market · Guadalupe FC win~~49% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Guadalupe FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CS Uruguay win	36%	24%	+12
Draw	24%	27%	−3
Guadalupe FC win	40%	49%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	59%	50%	+9
Both teams to score	61%	53%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	81%	72%	+9
Over 3.5 goals	38%	30%	+8
CS Uruguay or draw	60%	51%	+9
CS Uruguay clean sheet	21%	–	–
Guadalupe FC clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 5.1 7.1 5.8 3.2 1 6.6 10.8 8.3 4.5 2 5.1 7.8 6.1 3.3 3 2.6 3.9 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CS Uruguay down, Guadalupe FC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,485 Liga de Ascenso matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga de Ascenso matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.6% of games this season, across 83 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 7 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CS Uruguay at home: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Guadalupe FC away: 2.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for CS Uruguay, 1.61 for Guadalupe FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~GUA 0–1 CSU · CSU 1–3 GUA · GUA 2–1 CSU · GUA 3–0 CSU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga de Ascenso this season · since 12 Sept

CS URUGUAY

LLDDLL0–1 · 0–6 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–5 · 0–2

GUADALUPE FC

LLDWWW1–2 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aserri FC	22	+1	33
2	Santa Ana	12	+10	27
3	ADR Jicaral	10	+13	24
4	Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC	12	+4	20
5	Quepos Cambute	11	+6	19
6	AD Carmelita	12	+6	16
7	Cariari Pococi	12	0	16
8	Municipal Grecia	10	+1	15
9	Guadalupe FC	12	−3	15
10	AD Sarchí	10	−2	14
11	Futbol Consultants Moravia	12	0	13
12	CS Uruguay	12	−16	9
13	AD Cofutpa	10	−8	7
14	Santa Cruz FC	11	−12	6