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Cariari Pococi v Futbol Consultants Moravia

Cariari Pococi

1–0Full time

Futbol Consultants Moravia

Liga de Ascenso · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 05:00

Cariari Pococi 1–0 Futbol Consultants Moravia CARIARI POCOCI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cariari Pococi win~~44%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.473

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.505

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cariari Pococi win at 44%.
1′KICK-OFF Cariari Pococi v Futbol Consultants Moravia
2′Little has changed for our model: Cariari Pococi 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–26–30
3′Little has changed for our model: Cariari Pococi 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–27–30
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Cariari Pococi 1–0 Futbol Consultants Moravia
45′HALF-TIME Cariari Pococi 1–0 Futbol Consultants Moravia
46′SECOND HALF Cariari Pococi 1–0 Futbol Consultants Moravia
90′🟥 RED CARD · 91' Futbol Consultants Moravia
FTFULL TIME Cariari Pococi 1–0 Futbol Consultants Moravia
FTCariari Pococi 1–0 Futbol Consultants Moravia · Cariari Pococi win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Cariari Pococi win44%

Draw27%

Futbol Consultants Moravia win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 02:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cariari pococi winPublished 11 Oct 02:31

44% The market42%

Us44%

~~Market~~42%

We make Cariari Pococi a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cariari pococi win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cariari Pococi win	44%	42%	+2
Draw	27%	27%	0
Futbol Consultants Moravia win	29%	31%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	48%	52%	−4
Both teams to score	52%	56%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	73%	75%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	26%	31%	−4
Cariari Pococi or draw	71%	69%	+1
Cariari Pococi clean sheet	33%	–	–
Futbol Consultants Moravia clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.2 8.2 4.9 1 10.5 12.5 6.9 2.7 2 7.9 8.7 4.9 3 3.9 4.3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cariari Pococi down, Futbol Consultants Moravia across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,471 Liga de Ascenso matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga de Ascenso matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.7% of games this season, across 69 played.

Head to head

21 previous meetings, 2.90 goals a meeting; 14 of 21 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cariari Pococi at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Futbol Consultants Moravia away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Cariari Pococi, 1.14 for Futbol Consultants Moravia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

21 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~14 of 21

~~Both scored~~12 of 21

~~Last meetings~~FUT 0–1 CAR · CAR 0–1 FUT · FUT 0–1 CAR · FUT 3–1 CAR

Form · last six in Liga de Ascenso

CARIARI POCOCI

DLWDLL1–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1

FUTBOL CONSULTANTS MORAVIA

LLLWWL0–1 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aserri FC	17	+3	27
2	ADR Jicaral	9	+10	21
3	Santa Ana	10	+4	21
4	Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC	10	+5	19
5	Quepos Cambute	9	+6	16
6	AD Carmelita	10	+8	15
7	Municipal Grecia	8	+3	14
8	Cariari Pococi	10	0	13
9	AD Sarchí	8	−3	11
10	Guadalupe FC	10	−6	9
11	CS Uruguay	10	−9	9
12	Futbol Consultants Moravia	9	−4	7
13	Santa Cruz FC	9	−8	6
14	AD Cofutpa	9	−9	4