Cariari Pococi v Aserri FC prediction · Liga de Ascenso

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cariari Pococi are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cariari Pococi 47%, draw 27%, Aserri FC 26%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Cariari Pococi v Aserri FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Cariari Pococi win47%

Draw27%

Aserri FC win26%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 02:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cariari Pococi

Aserri FC

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga de Ascenso

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga de Ascenso

2Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cariari pococi winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

47% The market48%

Us47%

~~Market~~48%

We make Cariari Pococi a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cariari Pococi v Aserri FC~~1.46 – 1.00

~~Form · last six in Liga de Ascenso this season · since 24 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 16 v 33~~9 v 1

~~The market · Cariari Pococi win~~48% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cariari Pococi win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cariari Pococi win	47%	48%	−1
Draw	27%	27%	0
Aserri FC win	26%	25%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	44%	50%	−6
Both teams to score	48%	54%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	70%	73%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	23%	30%	−7
Cariari Pococi or draw	74%	75%	−1
Cariari Pococi clean sheet	37%	–	–
Aserri FC clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 9.2 8.4 4.3 1 12.2 12.5 6.1 2.1 2 9.1 8.8 4.4 3 4.5 4.3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cariari Pococi down, Aserri FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,487 Liga de Ascenso matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga de Ascenso matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.8% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cariari Pococi at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Aserri FC away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Cariari Pococi, 1.00 for Aserri FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ASE 1–1 CAR · ASE 2–2 CAR · CAR 2–2 ASE · CAR 3–0 ASE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga de Ascenso this season · since 24 Sept

CARIARI POCOCI

WDLLWL2–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–1

ASERRI FC

WLDDWD1–0 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aserri FC	22	+1	33
2	Santa Ana	13	+8	27
3	ADR Jicaral	10	+13	24
4	Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC	12	+4	20
5	Quepos Cambute	11	+6	19
6	Guadalupe FC	13	−2	18
7	AD Carmelita	12	+6	16
8	Futbol Consultants Moravia	13	+2	16
9	Cariari Pococi	12	0	16
10	Municipal Grecia	10	+1	15
11	AD Sarchí	10	−2	14
12	CS Uruguay	13	−17	9
13	AD Cofutpa	10	−8	7
14	Santa Cruz FC	11	−12	6