Aserri FC v Santa Cruz FC

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Aserri FC win at 46%.
2. 4′Little has changed for our model: Aserri FC 46% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–27–28
3. 4′KICK-OFF Aserri FC v Santa Cruz FC
4. 14′A goal for Aserri FC on 12′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 73–18–10
5. 14′⚽ GOAL · 12' Aserri FC 1–0 Santa Cruz FC
6. 14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Aserri FC win: 46% at kick-off, 73% now
7. 16′We said Aserri FC at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–18–10
8. 25′Santa Cruz FC are down to ten from 24′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 73–18–8
9. 25′🟥 RED CARD · 24' Santa Cruz FC
10. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 74–18–8
11. 36′We said Aserri FC at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
12. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Aserri FC win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
13. 45′HALF-TIME Aserri FC 1–0 Santa Cruz FC
14. 46′SECOND HALF Aserri FC 1–0 Santa Cruz FC
15. 61′We said Aserri FC at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
16. 63′Santa Cruz FC score on 63′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 27–53–19
17. 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Aserri FC 1–1 Santa Cruz FC
18. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Aserri FC win: 46% at kick-off, 27% now
19. 63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Aserri FC win 27%)
20. 64′We said Aserri FC at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 27–54–19
21. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Aserri FC win: 46% at kick-off, 26% now
22. 72′We said Aserri FC at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 1–1 · 21–64–15
23. 74′We said Aserri FC at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–67–14
24. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Aserri FC win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
25. 82′Aserri FC find the net on 79′. 2–1. 2–1 · 92–8–0
26. 82′⚽ GOAL · 79' Aserri FC 2–1 Santa Cruz FC
27. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Aserri FC win: 46% at kick-off, 92% now
28. 82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Aserri FC win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 8%)
29. 83′We said Aserri FC at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–1 · 93–7–0
30. 83′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 93–7–0
31. 86′We said Aserri FC at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
32. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Aserri FC win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
33. FTFULL TIME Aserri FC 2–1 Santa Cruz FC
34. FTAserri FC 2–1 Santa Cruz FC · Aserri FC win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.