Aserri FC v AD Sarchí prediction · Liga de Ascenso

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Aserri FCDrawAD Sarchí

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 00:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Aserri FC 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Aserri FC just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Aserri FC 37%, draw 28%, AD Sarchí 35%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Aserri FC v AD SarchíBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Aserri FC win37%

Draw28%

AD Sarchí win35%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 00:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aserri FC

AD Sarchí

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga de Ascenso

4Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aserri fc winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

37% The market50%

Us37%

~~Market~~50%

We make Aserri FC a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aserri FC v AD Sarchí~~1.25 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in Liga de Ascenso this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 33 v 14~~1 v 10

~~The market · Aserri FC win~~50% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Aserri FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aserri FC win	37%	50%	−13
Draw	28%	25%	+3
AD Sarchí win	35%	24%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	44%	54%	−10
Both teams to score	49%	56%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	70%	77%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	23%	34%	−11
Aserri FC or draw	65%	76%	−11
Aserri FC clean sheet	31%	–	–
AD Sarchí clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.3 10.2 6.3 2.6 1 10.5 12.9 7.6 3.1 2 6.7 7.8 4.7 3 2.8 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aserri FC down, AD Sarchí across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,485 Liga de Ascenso matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga de Ascenso matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.6% of games this season, across 83 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aserri FC at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). AD Sarchí away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Aserri FC, 1.20 for AD Sarchí. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ADS 2–1 ASE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga de Ascenso this season · since 6 Sept

ASERRI FC

WLDDWD1–0 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1

AD SARCHÍ

WLWLLW2–1 · 0–4 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aserri FC	22	+1	33
2	Santa Ana	12	+10	27
3	ADR Jicaral	10	+13	24
4	Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC	12	+4	20
5	Quepos Cambute	11	+6	19
6	AD Carmelita	12	+6	16
7	Cariari Pococi	12	0	16
8	Municipal Grecia	10	+1	15
9	Guadalupe FC	12	−3	15
10	AD Sarchí	10	−2	14
11	Futbol Consultants Moravia	12	0	13
12	CS Uruguay	12	−16	9
13	AD Cofutpa	10	−8	7
14	Santa Cruz FC	11	−12	6