Aserri FC v AD Carmelita prediction · Liga de Ascenso

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 20:31

Aserri FC 1–1 AD Carmelita ASERRI FC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Aserri FC win~~40%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.789

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.758

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Aserri FC win at 40%.
0′KICK-OFF Aserri FC v AD Carmelita
1′Much as we predicted: Aserri FC was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–28–33
36′PENALTY MISSED · 34' AD Carmelita
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Aserri FC win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Aserri FC 0–0 AD Carmelita
46′SECOND HALF Aserri FC 0–0 AD Carmelita
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Aserri FC win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
51′Aserri FC find the net on 51′. 0–0 · 30–45–26
51′We published Aserri FC at 40%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–20–6
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Aserri FC 1–0 AD Carmelita
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Aserri FC win: 40% at kick-off, 74% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Aserri FC win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 20%)
52′We published Aserri FC at 40%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–6
65′We published Aserri FC at 40%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Aserri FC win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
71′A goal for AD Carmelita on 71′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 20–63–17
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Aserri FC 1–1 AD Carmelita
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Aserri FC win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Draw is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Aserri FC win 20%)
72′We said Aserri FC at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–65–16
72′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–1 · 19–65–16
78′We said Aserri FC at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–74–12
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Aserri FC win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
83′We said Aserri FC at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–83–8
90′We said Aserri FC at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME Aserri FC 1–1 AD Carmelita
FTAserri FC 1–1 AD Carmelita · Aserri FC win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Aserri FC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Aserri FC 40%, draw 28%, AD Carmelita 33%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Aserri FC v AD CarmelitaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Aserri FC win40%

Draw28%

AD Carmelita win33%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aserri FC

AD Carmelita

1Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga de Ascenso

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga de Ascenso

4Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aserri fc winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 02:39 · locked at kick-off

40% The market40%

Us40%

~~Market~~40%

We make Aserri FC a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aserri FC v AD Carmelita~~1.31 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in Liga de Ascenso this season · since 7 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 32 v 15~~1 v 7

~~The market · Aserri FC win~~40% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Aserri FC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aserri FC win	40%	40%	0
Draw	28%	29%	−1
AD Carmelita win	33%	31%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	45%	49%	−4
Both teams to score	50%	54%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	71%	72%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	24%	29%	−5
Aserri FC or draw	67%	69%	−2
Aserri FC clean sheet	32%	–	–
AD Carmelita clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.1 9.5 5.7 2.3 1 10.7 12.9 7.3 2.9 2 7.2 8.2 4.8 3 3.2 3.6 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aserri FC down, AD Carmelita across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,481 Liga de Ascenso matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga de Ascenso matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 79 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.29 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aserri FC at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). AD Carmelita away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Aserri FC, 1.17 for AD Carmelita. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.29

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~ADC 1–2 ASE · ASE 0–0 ADC · ADC 2–2 ASE · ADC 1–1 ASE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga de Ascenso this season · since 7 Sept

ASERRI FC

LWLDDW0–1 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 2–1

AD CARMELITA

LDWWWL1–2 · 1–1 · 6–0 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aserri FC	21	+1	32
2	ADR Jicaral	10	+13	24
3	Santa Ana	11	+9	24
4	Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC	11	+5	20
5	Quepos Cambute	10	+7	19
6	Cariari Pococi	12	0	16
7	AD Carmelita	11	+6	15
8	Municipal Grecia	9	+3	15
9	Guadalupe FC	12	−3	15
10	Futbol Consultants Moravia	12	0	13
11	AD Sarchí	9	−4	11
12	CS Uruguay	12	−16	9
13	Santa Cruz FC	11	−12	6
14	AD Cofutpa	9	−9	4