AD Sarchí v Municipal Grecia prediction · Liga de Ascenso

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 20:31

AD Sarchí 2–0 Municipal Grecia AD SARCHÍ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said AD Sarchí win~~46%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.443

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.498

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AD Sarchí win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: AD Sarchí was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–25–29
1′KICK-OFF AD Sarchí v Municipal Grecia
8′AD Sarchí score on 7′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 71–17–12
8′⚽ GOAL · 7' AD Sarchí 1–0 Municipal Grecia
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' AD Sarchí win: 46% at kick-off, 71% now
9′We published AD Sarchí at 46%. Our model now makes it 71%. 1–0 · 71–17–11
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 73–18–9
38′PENALTY MISSED · 38' Municipal Grecia
44′We published AD Sarchí at 46%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–7
45′HALF-TIME AD Sarchí 1–0 Municipal Grecia
46′SECOND HALF AD Sarchí 1–0 Municipal Grecia
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' AD Sarchí win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
63′We published AD Sarchí at 46%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
75′We published AD Sarchí at 46%. Our model now makes it 86%. 1–0 · 86–13–1
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' AD Sarchí win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
81′A red card for Municipal Grecia on 80′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 90–9–1
81′🟥 RED CARD · 80' Municipal Grecia
82′We published AD Sarchí at 46%. Our model now makes it 91%. 1–0 · 91–8–0
87′AD Sarchí find the net on 87′. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' AD Sarchí 2–0 Municipal Grecia
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' AD Sarchí win: 46% at kick-off, over 99% now
88′We published AD Sarchí at 46%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME AD Sarchí 2–0 Municipal Grecia
FTAD Sarchí 2–0 Municipal Grecia · AD Sarchí win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

AD Sarchí are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: AD Sarchí 46%, draw 25%, Municipal Grecia 29%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on AD Sarchí v Municipal GreciaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

AD Sarchí win46%

Draw25%

Municipal Grecia win29%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AD Sarchí

Municipal Grecia

7Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga de Ascenso

Last match: 12 Oct · Liga de Ascenso

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Municipal Grecia	9	+3	15
11	AD Sarchí	9	−4	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ad sarchí winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 00:07 · locked at kick-off

46% The market42%

Us46%

~~Market~~42%

We make AD Sarchí a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AD Sarchí v Municipal Grecia~~1.59 – 1.21

~~Form · last six in Liga de Ascenso this season · since 30 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 15~~11 v 8

~~The market · AD Sarchí win~~42% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · AD Sarchí win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AD Sarchí win	46%	42%	+4
Draw	25%	28%	−3
Municipal Grecia win	29%	30%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	53%	51%	+2
Both teams to score	55%	55%	0
Over 1.5 goals	77%	74%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	31%	31%	0
AD Sarchí or draw	71%	70%	+1
AD Sarchí clean sheet	30%	–	–
Municipal Grecia clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.8 7.2 4.5 1 9.4 11.7 6.9 2.8 2 7.6 8.9 5.4 2.2 3 4.1 4.8 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AD Sarchí down, Municipal Grecia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,481 Liga de Ascenso matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga de Ascenso matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 79 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AD Sarchí at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Municipal Grecia away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for AD Sarchí, 1.21 for Municipal Grecia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MUN 1–0 ADS · ADS 1–1 MUN · MUN 1–0 ADS · MUN 1–3 ADS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga de Ascenso this season · since 30 Aug

AD SARCHÍ

LWLWLL0–1 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–2

MUNICIPAL GRECIA

WDDLWD1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aserri FC	21	+1	32
2	ADR Jicaral	10	+13	24
3	Santa Ana	11	+9	24
4	Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC	11	+5	20
5	Quepos Cambute	10	+7	19
6	Cariari Pococi	12	0	16
7	AD Carmelita	11	+6	15
8	Municipal Grecia	9	+3	15
9	Guadalupe FC	12	−3	15
10	Futbol Consultants Moravia	12	0	13
11	AD Sarchí	9	−4	11
12	CS Uruguay	12	−16	9
13	Santa Cruz FC	11	−12	6
14	AD Cofutpa	9	−9	4