AD Cofutpa v Quepos Cambute prediction · Liga de Ascenso

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 05:46

AD Cofutpa 1–0 Quepos Cambute QUEPOS CAMBUTE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Quepos Cambute win~~47%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.781

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.940

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Quepos Cambute win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Quepos Cambute 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 29–24–47
1′KICK-OFF AD Cofutpa v Quepos Cambute
17′🟨 YELLOW · 12' AD Cofutpa
17′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Quepos Cambute
45′HALF-TIME AD Cofutpa 0–0 Quepos Cambute
46′SECOND HALF AD Cofutpa 0–0 Quepos Cambute
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' Quepos Cambute win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+8' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Quepos Cambute win 38%)
54′We said Quepos Cambute at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 24–41–35
55′We said Quepos Cambute at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 24–42–34
56′Goalless on 56′ when we expected about 3.1 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 24–43–34
61′AD Cofutpa find the net on 61′. 1–0. 1–0 · 69–23–8
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' AD Cofutpa 1–0 Quepos Cambute
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Quepos Cambute win: 47% at kick-off, 8% now
61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' AD Cofutpa win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 47%)
62′We said Quepos Cambute at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 1–0 · 69–23–8
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Quepos Cambute win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
71′We said Quepos Cambute at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–20–4
87′AD Cofutpa have ten men and Quepos Cambute ten after the red cards. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 92–8–0
87′🟥 RED CARD · 87' AD Cofutpa
87′🟥 RED CARD · 87' Quepos Cambute
FTFULL TIME AD Cofutpa 1–0 Quepos Cambute
FTAD Cofutpa 1–0 Quepos Cambute · Quepos Cambute win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Quepos Cambute are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: AD Cofutpa 29%, draw 24%, Quepos Cambute 47%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on AD Cofutpa v Quepos CambuteBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

AD Cofutpa win29%

Draw24%

Quepos Cambute win47%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 03:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AD Cofutpa

Quepos Cambute

16Days since last match9

Last match: 4 Oct · Liga de Ascenso

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga de Ascenso

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Quepos Cambute	10	+7	19
14	AD Cofutpa	9	−9	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · quepos cambute winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market51%

Us47%

~~Market~~51%

We make Quepos Cambute a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AD Cofutpa v Quepos Cambute~~1.33 – 1.76

~~Form · last six in Liga de Ascenso this season · since 30 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 19~~14 v 5

~~The market · Quepos Cambute win~~51% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Quepos Cambute win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AD Cofutpa win	29%	22%	+7
Draw	24%	27%	−3
Quepos Cambute win	47%	51%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	59%	50%	+9
Both teams to score	60%	52%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	81%	72%	+9
Over 3.5 goals	37%	30%	+7
AD Cofutpa or draw	53%	49%	+4
AD Cofutpa clean sheet	18%	–	–
Quepos Cambute clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.2 7.9 7.1 4.2 1 5.9 10.7 9.0 5.3 2.4 2 4.1 6.9 5.9 3.5 3 3.1 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AD Cofutpa down, Quepos Cambute across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,484 Liga de Ascenso matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga de Ascenso matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.2% of games this season, across 82 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.40 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AD Cofutpa at home: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Quepos Cambute away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for AD Cofutpa, 1.76 for Quepos Cambute. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~QUE 3–0 ADC · QUE 3–1 ADC · ADC 2–1 QUE · ADC 5–0 QUE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga de Ascenso this season · since 30 Aug

AD COFUTPA

LDLLWL0–3 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 1–3

QUEPOS CAMBUTE

WLWWLW3–0 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aserri FC	22	+1	33
2	Santa Ana	12	+10	27
3	ADR Jicaral	10	+13	24
4	Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC	12	+4	20
5	Quepos Cambute	10	+7	19
6	AD Carmelita	12	+6	16
7	Cariari Pococi	12	0	16
8	Municipal Grecia	10	+1	15
9	Guadalupe FC	12	−3	15
10	AD Sarchí	10	−2	14
11	Futbol Consultants Moravia	12	0	13
12	CS Uruguay	12	−16	9
13	Santa Cruz FC	11	−12	6
14	AD Cofutpa	9	−9	4