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AD Carmelita v Guadalupe FC

AD Carmelita

0–2Full time

Guadalupe FC

Liga de Ascenso · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 05:30

AD Carmelita 0–2 Guadalupe FC AD CARMELITA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said AD Carmelita win~~48%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.807

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.684

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AD Carmelita win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: AD Carmelita was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–24–28
1′KICK-OFF AD Carmelita v Guadalupe FC
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' AD Carmelita 0–1 Guadalupe FC
7′⚽ GOAL · 8' AD Carmelita 0–1 Guadalupe FC
20′Guadalupe FC find the net on 8′. 0–1. 0–1 · 21–24–55
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' AD Carmelita win: 48% at kick-off, 21% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Guadalupe FC win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was AD Carmelita win 21%)
40′We said AD Carmelita at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–25–60
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' AD Carmelita win: 48% at kick-off, 15% now
45′SECOND HALF AD Carmelita 0–2 Guadalupe FC
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' AD Carmelita 0–2 Guadalupe FC
47′⚽ GOAL · 48' AD Carmelita 0–2 Guadalupe FC
49′A goal for Guadalupe FC on 45′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 3–10–87
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' AD Carmelita win: 48% at kick-off, 3% now
56′We said AD Carmelita at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–10–87
FTFULL TIME AD Carmelita 0–2 Guadalupe FC
FTAD Carmelita 0–2 Guadalupe FC · AD Carmelita win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

AD Carmelita win48%

Draw24%

Guadalupe FC win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 03:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ad carmelita winPublished 10 Oct 03:01

48% The market39%

Us48%

~~Market~~39%

We make AD Carmelita a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ad carmelita win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AD Carmelita win	48%	39%	+9
Draw	24%	28%	−4
Guadalupe FC win	28%	33%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	56%	55%	+1
Both teams to score	57%	59%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	79%	77%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	34%	35%	−1
AD Carmelita or draw	72%	67%	+5
AD Carmelita clean sheet	30%	–	–
Guadalupe FC clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 6.0 6.3 4.2 1 8.7 11.2 6.7 2.8 2 7.6 9.0 5.6 2.4 3 4.3 5.2 3.2 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AD Carmelita down, Guadalupe FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,471 Liga de Ascenso matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga de Ascenso matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.7% of games this season, across 69 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AD Carmelita at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Guadalupe FC away: 2.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for AD Carmelita, 1.24 for Guadalupe FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~GUA 0–1 ADC

Form · last six in Liga de Ascenso

AD CARMELITA

LLDWWW1–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 6–0 · 1–0 · 3–0

GUADALUPE FC

DLLLDW3–3 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aserri FC	17	+3	27
2	ADR Jicaral	9	+10	21
3	Santa Ana	10	+4	21
4	Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC	10	+5	19
5	Quepos Cambute	9	+6	16
6	AD Carmelita	10	+8	15
7	Municipal Grecia	8	+3	14
8	Cariari Pococi	10	0	13
9	AD Sarchí	8	−3	11
10	Guadalupe FC	10	−6	9
11	CS Uruguay	10	−9	9
12	Futbol Consultants Moravia	9	−4	7
13	Santa Cruz FC	9	−8	6
14	AD Cofutpa	9	−9	4