Tanganyika v Saint-Luc prediction · Ligue 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

TanganyikaDrawSaint-Luc

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Tanganyika 50%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tanganyika are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tanganyika 50%, draw 29%, Saint-Luc 21%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Tanganyika v Saint-LucBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Tanganyika win50%

Draw29%

Saint-Luc win21%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tanganyika

Saint-Luc

10Days since last match10

Last match: 20 Oct · Ligue 1 (Congo DR)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Tanganyika	1	+1	3
13	Saint-Luc	1	−2	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tanganyika winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Tanganyika a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tanganyika v Saint-Luc~~1.38 – 0.77

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 20 Oct~~W1 D0 L0 · W0 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 0~~2 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tanganyika win	50%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Saint-Luc win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	36%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	63%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Tanganyika or draw	79%	–	–
Tanganyika clean sheet	47%	–	–
Saint-Luc clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.5%

0123450 12.7 8.6 3.5 1 15.5 12.6 4.7 2 10.9 8.2 3.2 3 5.1 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tanganyika down, Saint-Luc across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,595 Ligue 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tanganyika at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Saint-Luc away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Tanganyika, 0.77 for Saint-Luc. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~TAN 2–2 SAI · SAI 0–2 TAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 20 Oct

TANGANYIKA

W2–1

SAINT-LUC

L0–2

The table

2026/27 · Super Ligue · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Simba	1	+2	3
2	Tanganyika	1	+1	3
3	Don Bosco	1	0	1
4	Malole	1	0	1
5	Saint Eloi Lupopo	1	0	1
6	Sanga Balende	1	0	1
7	AS New Soger	1	0	1
8	CS Manika	1	0	1
9	TP Mazembe	0	0	0
10	Lubumbashi Sport	0	0	0
11	Butras	0	0	0
12	Blessing	1	−1	0
13	Saint-Luc	1	−2	0