Simba v Saint-Luc prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 17:01

Simba 2–0 Saint-Luc SIMBA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Simba win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.455

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Simba are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Simba 45%, draw 33%, Saint-Luc 22%. Over 2.5 goals 26%, both teams to score 33%.

The AI’s read on Simba v Saint-LucBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Simba win45%

Draw33%

Saint-Luc win22%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Simba

Saint-Luc

122Days since last match192

Last match: 20 June · Ligue 1 (Congo DR)

Last match: 11 Apr · Ligue 1 (Congo DR)

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Saint-Luc	0	0	0
8	Simba	0	0	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · simba winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Simba a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Simba v Saint-Luc~~1.11 – 0.67

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~8 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Simba win	45%	–	–
Draw	33%	–	–
Saint-Luc win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	26%	–	–
Both teams to score	33%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	53%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	11%	–	–
Simba or draw	78%	–	–
Simba clean sheet	51%	–	–
Saint-Luc clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.2%

0123450 17.7 11.0 3.9 1 18.2 12.7 4.2 2 10.2 6.7 2.3 3 3.9 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Simba down, Saint-Luc across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,584 Ligue 1 matches up to 20 Jun 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Simba at home: 0.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Saint-Luc away: 0.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.11 goals for Simba, 0.67 for Saint-Luc. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SIM 1–0 SAI · SAI 1–1 SIM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season

SIMBA

No matches in our record yet.

SAINT-LUC

No matches in our record yet.

The table

2026/27 · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	TP Mazembe	0	0	0
2	Saint Eloi Lupopo	0	0	0
3	Don Bosco	0	0	0
4	Saint-Luc	0	0	0
5	Sanga Balende	0	0	0
6	Lubumbashi Sport	0	0	0
7	AS New Soger	0	0	0
8	Simba	0	0	0
9	Blessing	0	0	0
10	Tanganyika	0	0	0
11	Malole	0	0	0
12	CS Manika	0	0	0
13	Butras	0	0	0