Simba v AS New Soger prediction · Ligue 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SimbaDrawAS New Soger

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Simba 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Simba are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Simba 51%, draw 30%, AS New Soger 20%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Simba v AS New SogerBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Simba win51%

Draw30%

AS New Soger win20%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Simba

AS New Soger

10Days since last match10

Last match: 20 Oct · Ligue 1 (Congo DR)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · simba winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Simba a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Simba v AS New Soger~~1.33 – 0.70

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 20 Oct~~W1 D0 L0 · W0 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 3 v 1~~1 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Simba win	51%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
AS New Soger win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	33%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	60%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
Simba or draw	80%	–	–
Simba clean sheet	50%	–	–
AS New Soger clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.8%

0123450 14.0 8.9 3.3 1 16.8 12.5 4.3 2 11.4 7.8 2.8 3 5.1 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Simba down, AS New Soger across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,593 Ligue 1 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Simba at home: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). AS New Soger away: 0.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Simba, 0.70 for AS New Soger. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SIM 1–0 ASN · ASN 0–1 SIM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 20 Oct

SIMBA

W2–0

AS NEW SOGER

D0–0

The table

2026/27 · Super Ligue · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Simba	1	+2	3
2	Tanganyika	1	+1	3
3	Don Bosco	1	0	1
4	Malole	1	0	1
5	Saint Eloi Lupopo	1	0	1
6	Sanga Balende	1	0	1
7	AS New Soger	1	0	1
8	CS Manika	1	0	1
9	TP Mazembe	0	0	0
10	Lubumbashi Sport	0	0	0
11	Butras	0	0	0
12	Blessing	1	−1	0
13	Saint-Luc	1	−2	0