New Jack v Etoile de Kivu prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 21:15

New Jack 0–0 Etoile de Kivu NEW JACK WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said New Jack win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.727

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

New Jack are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: New Jack 40%, draw 31%, Etoile de Kivu 29%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on New Jack v Etoile de KivuBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

New Jack win40%

Draw31%

Etoile de Kivu win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

New Jack

Etoile de Kivu

3Days since last match192

Last match: 21 Oct · Ligue 1 (Congo DR)

Last match: 15 Apr · Ligue 1 (Congo DR)

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Etoile de Kivu	0	0	0
13	New Jack	1	−2	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · new jack winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 00:10 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make New Jack a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · New Jack v Etoile de Kivu~~1.16 – 0.95

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~13 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · New Jack win

Published at 41%, 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
New Jack win	40%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Etoile de Kivu win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	63%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
New Jack or draw	71%	–	–
New Jack clean sheet	39%	–	–
Etoile de Kivu clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 13.0 11.0 5.5 1 13.5 13.5 6.2 2.0 2 8.1 7.5 3.6 3 3.2 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+New Jack down, Etoile de Kivu across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,593 Ligue 1 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

New Jack at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Etoile de Kivu away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for New Jack, 0.95 for Etoile de Kivu. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ETO 0–1 NEW · NEW 0–1 ETO · ETO 1–0 NEW

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 21 Oct

NEW JACK

L0–2

ETOILE DE KIVU

No matches in our record yet.

The table

2026/27 · Super Ligue · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Anges Verts	1	+2	3
2	Étoile du Congo	1	+1	3
3	FC Mk de Kinshasa	1	0	1
4	Céleste	1	0	1
5	Dauphins Noirs	1	0	1
6	Rangers	1	0	1
7	Vita Club	0	0	0
8	Maniema Union	0	0	0
9	Etoile de Kivu	0	0	0
10	FC Renaissance	0	0	0
11	Novakin	0	0	0
12	JSK	1	−1	0
13	New Jack	1	−2	0