Lubumbashi Sport v Sanga Balende prediction · Ligue 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Lubumbashi SportDrawSanga Balende

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Lubumbashi Sport 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lubumbashi Sport are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lubumbashi Sport 40%, draw 33%, Sanga Balende 27%. Over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Lubumbashi Sport v Sanga BalendeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Lubumbashi Sport win40%

Draw33%

Sanga Balende win27%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lubumbashi Sport

Sanga Balende

214Days since last match9

Last match: 30 Mar · Ligue 1 (Congo DR)

Last match: 21 Oct · Ligue 1 (Congo DR)

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Sanga Balende	1	0	1
10	Lubumbashi Sport	0	0	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lubumbashi sport winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Lubumbashi Sport a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–0.8, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lubumbashi Sport v Sanga Balende~~1.04 – 0.80

~~Table places · points 0 v 1~~10 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lubumbashi Sport win	40%	–	–
Draw	33%	–	–
Sanga Balende win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	28%	–	–
Both teams to score	36%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	55%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	12%	–	–
Lubumbashi Sport or draw	73%	–	–
Lubumbashi Sport clean sheet	45%	–	–
Sanga Balende clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.9%

0123450 16.9 12.2 5.1 1 15.9 13.5 5.2 2 8.5 6.7 2.7 3 3.0 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lubumbashi Sport down, Sanga Balende across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,595 Ligue 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 1.44 goals a meeting; 2 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lubumbashi Sport at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Sanga Balende away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.04 goals for Lubumbashi Sport, 0.80 for Sanga Balende. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~1.44

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 9

~~Both scored~~2 of 9

~~Last meetings~~LUB 2–1 SAN · SAN 0–1 LUB · LUB 1–1 SAN · SAN 1–0 LUB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 21 Oct

LUBUMBASHI SPORT

No matches in our record yet.

SANGA BALENDE

D0–0

The table

2026/27 · Super Ligue · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Simba	1	+2	3
2	Tanganyika	1	+1	3
3	Don Bosco	1	0	1
4	Malole	1	0	1
5	Saint Eloi Lupopo	1	0	1
6	Sanga Balende	1	0	1
7	AS New Soger	1	0	1
8	CS Manika	1	0	1
9	TP Mazembe	0	0	0
10	Lubumbashi Sport	0	0	0
11	Butras	0	0	0
12	Blessing	1	−1	0
13	Saint-Luc	1	−2	0