FC Renaissance v Céleste prediction · Ligue 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FC RenaissanceDrawCéleste

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Céleste 36%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Céleste just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Renaissance 32%, draw 32%, Céleste 36%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on FC Renaissance v CélesteBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

FC Renaissance win32%

Draw32%

Céleste win36%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Renaissance

Céleste

196Days since last match5

Last match: 12 Apr · Ligue 1 (Congo DR)

Last match: 20 Oct · Ligue 1 (Congo DR)

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Céleste	1	0	1
10	FC Renaissance	0	0	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · céleste winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Céleste a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.0, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Renaissance v Céleste~~0.97 – 1.04

~~Table places · points 0 v 1~~10 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Céleste win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Renaissance win	32%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Céleste win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	33%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	60%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
FC Renaissance or draw	64%	–	–
FC Renaissance clean sheet	36%	–	–
Céleste clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 14.2%

0123450 14.2 13.3 7.2 2.6 1 12.4 13.7 6.8 2.4 2 6.3 6.4 3.3 3 2.1 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Renaissance down, Céleste across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,593 Ligue 1 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Renaissance at home: 0.50 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Céleste away: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.97 goals for FC Renaissance, 1.04 for Céleste. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~FCR 0–5 CEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 20 Oct

FC RENAISSANCE

No matches in our record yet.

CÉLESTE

D1–1

The table

2026/27 · Super Ligue · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Anges Verts	1	+2	3
2	Étoile du Congo	1	+1	3
3	FC Mk de Kinshasa	1	0	1
4	Céleste	1	0	1
5	Dauphins Noirs	1	0	1
6	Rangers	1	0	1
7	Vita Club	0	0	0
8	Maniema Union	0	0	0
9	Etoile de Kivu	0	0	0
10	FC Renaissance	0	0	0
11	Novakin	0	0	0
12	JSK	1	−1	0
13	New Jack	1	−2	0