Don Bosco v Malole prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 16:30

Don Bosco 1–1 Malole DON BOSCO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Don Bosco win~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.923

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Don Bosco are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Don Bosco 59%, draw 26%, Malole 16%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Don Bosco v MaloleBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Don Bosco win59%

Draw26%

Malole win16%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Don Bosco

Malole

122Days since last match181

Last match: 20 June · Ligue 1 (Congo DR)

Last match: 22 Apr · Ligue 1 (Congo DR)

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Don Bosco	0	0	0
11	Malole	0	0	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · don bosco winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Don Bosco a 59% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Don Bosco v Malole~~1.61 – 0.69

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~3 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Don Bosco win	59%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Malole win	16%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Don Bosco or draw	84%	–	–
Don Bosco clean sheet	51%	–	–
Malole clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.8%

0123450 10.9 6.7 2.5 1 15.8 11.3 3.8 2 12.8 8.6 3.0 3 6.9 4.6 4 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Don Bosco down, Malole across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,584 Ligue 1 matches up to 20 Jun 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Don Bosco at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Malole away: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Don Bosco, 0.69 for Malole. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~DON 4–2 MAL · MAL 0–2 DON · MAL 1–1 DON · DON 6–0 MAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season

DON BOSCO

No matches in our record yet.

MALOLE

No matches in our record yet.

The table

2026/27 · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	TP Mazembe	0	0	0
2	Saint Eloi Lupopo	0	0	0
3	Don Bosco	0	0	0
4	Saint-Luc	0	0	0
5	Sanga Balende	0	0	0
6	Lubumbashi Sport	0	0	0
7	AS New Soger	0	0	0
8	Simba	0	0	0
9	Blessing	0	0	0
10	Tanganyika	0	0	0
11	Malole	0	0	0
12	CS Manika	0	0	0
13	Butras	0	0	0