CS Manika v Sanga Balende prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 17:01

CS Manika 0–0 Sanga Balende CS MANIKA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said CS Manika win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.678

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CS Manika are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: CS Manika 44%, draw 34%, Sanga Balende 22%. Over 2.5 goals 24%, both teams to score 31%.

The AI’s read on CS Manika v Sanga BalendeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

CS Manika win44%

Draw34%

Sanga Balende win22%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CS Manika

Sanga Balende

199Days since last match182

Last match: 5 Apr · Ligue 1 (Congo DR)

Last match: 22 Apr · Ligue 1 (Congo DR)

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Sanga Balende	0	0	0
10	CS Manika	0	0	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cs manika winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make CS Manika a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.6, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 19%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · CS Manika v Sanga Balende~~1.05 – 0.64

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~10 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CS Manika win	44%	–	–
Draw	34%	–	–
Sanga Balende win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	24%	–	–
Both teams to score	31%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	51%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	9%	–	–
CS Manika or draw	78%	–	–
CS Manika clean sheet	53%	–	–
Sanga Balende clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 19.3%

0123450 19.3 11.3 3.8 1 18.7 12.6 3.9 2 10.1 6.4 2.0 3 3.6 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CS Manika down, Sanga Balende across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,591 Ligue 1 matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CS Manika at home: 1.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Sanga Balende away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.05 goals for CS Manika, 0.64 for Sanga Balende. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CSM 0–0 SAN · SAN 2–1 CSM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season

CS MANIKA

No matches in our record yet.

SANGA BALENDE

No matches in our record yet.

The table

2026/27 · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Simba	1	+2	3
2	Tanganyika	1	+1	3
3	Don Bosco	1	0	1
4	Malole	1	0	1
5	Saint Eloi Lupopo	1	0	1
6	AS New Soger	1	0	1
7	TP Mazembe	0	0	0
8	Sanga Balende	0	0	0
9	Lubumbashi Sport	0	0	0
10	CS Manika	0	0	0
11	Butras	0	0	0
12	Blessing	1	−1	0
13	Saint-Luc	1	−2	0