CS Manika v Malole prediction · Ligue 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CS ManikaDrawMalole

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · CS Manika 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CS Manika are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: CS Manika 47%, draw 33%, Malole 20%. Over 2.5 goals 26%, both teams to score 31%.

The AI’s read on CS Manika v MaloleBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

CS Manika win47%

Draw33%

Malole win20%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CS Manika

Malole

9Days since last match10

Last match: 21 Oct · Ligue 1 (Congo DR)

Last match: 20 Oct · Ligue 1 (Congo DR)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Malole	1	0	1
8	CS Manika	1	0	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cs manika winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make CS Manika a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.6, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 19%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · CS Manika v Malole~~1.12 – 0.63

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 20 Oct~~W0 D1 L0 · W0 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 1 v 1~~8 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CS Manika win	47%	–	–
Draw	33%	–	–
Malole win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	26%	–	–
Both teams to score	31%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	52%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	10%	–	–
CS Manika or draw	80%	–	–
CS Manika clean sheet	54%	–	–
Malole clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.8%

0123450 18.3 10.5 3.5 1 18.8 12.4 3.8 2 10.8 6.7 2.1 3 4.1 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CS Manika down, Malole across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,593 Ligue 1 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CS Manika at home: 1.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Malole away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for CS Manika, 0.63 for Malole. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CSM 1–0 MAL · MAL 0–0 CSM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 20 Oct

CS MANIKA

D0–0

MALOLE

D1–1

The table

2026/27 · Super Ligue · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Simba	1	+2	3
2	Tanganyika	1	+1	3
3	Don Bosco	1	0	1
4	Malole	1	0	1
5	Saint Eloi Lupopo	1	0	1
6	Sanga Balende	1	0	1
7	AS New Soger	1	0	1
8	CS Manika	1	0	1
9	TP Mazembe	0	0	0
10	Lubumbashi Sport	0	0	0
11	Butras	0	0	0
12	Blessing	1	−1	0
13	Saint-Luc	1	−2	0