Anges Verts v New Jack prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 18:31

Anges Verts 2–0 New Jack ANGES VERTS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Anges Verts win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.571

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Anges Verts are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Anges Verts 38%, draw 30%, New Jack 32%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Anges Verts v New JackBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 19:01 · locked at kick-off

Anges Verts win38%

Draw30%

New Jack win32%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Anges Verts

New Jack

186Days since last match186

Last match: 18 Apr · Ligue 1 (Congo DR)

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Anges Verts	0	0	0
10	New Jack	0	0	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · anges verts winFirst published 15 Oct 19:01 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Anges Verts a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Anges Verts v New Jack~~1.16 – 1.03

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~9 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Anges Verts win	38%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
New Jack win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Anges Verts or draw	68%	–	–
Anges Verts clean sheet	36%	–	–
New Jack clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 12.1 11.0 5.9 2.1 1 12.5 13.6 6.7 2.3 2 7.5 7.5 3.9 3 3.0 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Anges Verts down, New Jack across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,591 Ligue 1 matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Anges Verts at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). New Jack away: 0.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Anges Verts, 1.03 for New Jack. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ANG 0–0 NEW · NEW 0–0 ANG · ANG 3–1 NEW · NEW 1–0 ANG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season

ANGES VERTS

No matches in our record yet.

NEW JACK

No matches in our record yet.

The table

2026/27 · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Étoile du Congo	1	+1	3
2	FC Mk de Kinshasa	1	0	1
3	Céleste	1	0	1
4	Dauphins Noirs	1	0	1
5	Rangers	1	0	1
6	Vita Club	0	0	0
7	Maniema Union	0	0	0
8	Etoile de Kivu	0	0	0
9	Anges Verts	0	0	0
10	New Jack	0	0	0
11	FC Renaissance	0	0	0
12	Novakin	0	0	0
13	JSK	1	−1	0