Santa Fe v Fortaleza FC prediction · Copa Colombia

After 90 minutesGraded 11 Oct 22:30

Santa Fe 2–2 Fortaleza FC SANTA FE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Santa Fe win~~58%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.920

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.862

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 2–2, the score after 90 minutes. Santa Fe won 9–8 on penalties.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Santa Fe win at 58%.
0′⚽ GOAL · 123' Santa Fe 2–2 Fortaleza FC · J. Medina Obando
0′⚽ GOAL · 123' Santa Fe 2–2 Fortaleza FC · N. Bustos
0′⚽ GOAL · 124' Santa Fe 2–2 Fortaleza FC · D. Ramirez
0′⚽ GOAL · 124' Santa Fe 2–2 Fortaleza FC · J. Torres
0′⚽ GOAL · 125' Santa Fe 2–2 Fortaleza FC · J. Solis
0′⚽ GOAL · 125' Santa Fe 2–2 Fortaleza FC · H. Rodallega
0′⚽ GOAL · 126' Santa Fe 2–2 Fortaleza FC · J. Salas
0′⚽ GOAL · 126' Santa Fe 2–2 Fortaleza FC · I. R. Scarpeta Silgado
0′⚽ GOAL · 127' Santa Fe 2–2 Fortaleza FC · T. Wilke
0′⚽ GOAL · 127' Santa Fe 2–2 Fortaleza FC · K. D. Toscano Bassa
0′⚽ GOAL · 128' Santa Fe 2–2 Fortaleza FC
0′PENALTY MISSED · 129' L. Pico · Fortaleza FC
0′⚽ GOAL · 129' Santa Fe 2–2 Fortaleza FC · H. Palacios
1′Much as we predicted: Santa Fe was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 59–24–17
22′20′ and it is 1–0: H. Rodallega on the scoresheet for Santa Fe. 1–0 · 83–13–4
42′Fortaleza FC ahead on 42′ through T. Wilke. 1–1. 1–1 · 46–38–16
47′Fortaleza FC ahead on 42′ through T. Wilke. 1–1. 1–1 · 44–40–16
61′56′ and it is 2–2: F. Pulicastro on the scoresheet for Fortaleza FC. 2–2 · 35–52–13
70′56′ and it is 2–2: F. Pulicastro on the scoresheet for Fortaleza FC. 2–2 · 27–62–11
82′We said Santa Fe at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 2–2 · 13–81–6
82′J. Medina Obando scores for Fortaleza FC on 120′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 59–24–17
82′J. Torres scores for Santa Fe on 120′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 59–24–17
82′120′ and it is 2–2: J. Solis on the scoresheet for Fortaleza FC. 2–2 · 59–24–17
–OUR NUMBER MOVES UP Santa Fe win: 58% at kick-off, 59% now
–THE CALL SWINGS Santa Fe win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Draw 24%)
–OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN Santa Fe win: 58% at kick-off, 13% now
–THE CALL SWINGS Draw is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Santa Fe win 13%)
FTFULL TIME Santa Fe 2–2 Fortaleza FC
FTSanta Fe 2–2 Fortaleza FC after 90 minutes, as graded · Santa Fe win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Santa Fe win58%

Draw26%

Fortaleza FC win16%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 20:00

Line-ups

Santa Fe

Fortaleza FC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Santa Fe

Fortaleza FC

16Days since last match135

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Fortaleza FC	4	+2	5
17	Santa Fe	2	+2	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Santa Fe

Formation not confirmed

12 W. Asprilla

13 H. Palacios

3 V. Moreno

15 I. R. Scarpeta Silgado

32 C. Mafla

6 K. D. Toscano Bassa

19 N. Bustos

16 D. Torres

14 L. Palacios

11 H. Rodallega

10 A. Zapata

Coach · Jose Lopez Fierro

Substitutes

1 · A. Mosquera

18 · E. Olivera

7 · J. Torres

43 · J. Caicedo

17 · M. Lovera

9 · F. Fagundez

25 · E. Rodriguez

39 · C. Portocarrero

77 · J. Obrian

Fortaleza FC

Formation not confirmed

1 W. Barlasina

6 Y. Diaz

5 J. Medina Obando

2 A. Copete

4 E. Cabezas

7 I. Montano

14 L. Pico

28 S. Vivas

29 T. Wilke

30 J. Solis

19 F. Pulicastro

Coach · Diego Arias

Substitutes

12 · C. Santander

3 · D. Ramirez

15 · S. Cuero

16 · J. Cajares

13 · B. Mejia

8 · S. Navarro

10 · J. Velasquez

25 · J. Garcia

24 · J. Salas

9 · J. Herrera

Our number · santa fe winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

58% The market54%

Us58%

~~Market~~54%

We make Santa Fe a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · santa fe win The market, margin stripped

Published at 59%, 58% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Santa Fe win	58%	54%	+5
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Fortaleza FC win	16%	19%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	44%	45%	−1
Both teams to score	44%	47%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	70%	69%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	23%	25%	−2
Santa Fe or draw	84%	81%	+3
Santa Fe clean sheet	47%	–	–
Fortaleza FC clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.0%

0123450 9.7 6.0 2.6 1 14.0 11.8 4.2 2 12.2 9.2 3.5 3 6.8 5.1 4 2.9 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Santa Fe down, Fortaleza FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,524 Primera A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.3% of games this season, across 327 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.75 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Santa Fe at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Fortaleza FC away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Santa Fe, 0.76 for Fortaleza FC. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~SAN 2–2 FOR · FOR 1–1 SAN · FOR 1–2 SAN · SAN 3–0 FOR

Form · last six in Copa Colombia

SANTA FE

DWWLWW2–2 · 1–0 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

FORTALEZA FC

DDLDDD2–2 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Cali	5	+5	12
2	Millonarios	5	+9	11
3	Independiente Medellin	5	+5	11
4	Llaneros	5	+5	10
5	Atletico Nacional	3	+7	9
6	Once Caldas	3	+7	9
7	Internacional de Bogota	3	+3	9
8	Deportivo Pereira	5	−1	8
9	America de Cali	3	+4	7
10	Alianza Valledupar	5	+2	7
11	Real Cundinamarca	5	+1	7
12	Popayan	4	0	7
13	Águilas Doradas	4	+3	6
14	Chico	4	+3	5
15	Fortaleza FC	4	+2	5
16	Leones FC	4	−1	5
17	Santa Fe	2	+2	4
18	Jaguares	4	+1	4
19	Quindio	3	0	4
20	Bucaramanga	4	+1	3
21	Barranquilla	3	0	3
22	Deportes Tolima	2	0	3
23	Deportivo Pasto	3	−1	3
24	Cucuta	4	−1	3
25	Orsomarso	4	−2	3
26	Bogota FC	2	−2	3
27	Junior	2	0	2
28	Patriotas	4	−3	2
29	Real Cartagena	2	−1	1
30	Union Magdalena	2	−2	1
31	Ind. Yumbo	4	−8	1
32	Depor FC	4	−14	1
33	Internacional Palmira	2	−2	0
34	Tigres FC	2	−4	0
35	Envigado	2	−6	0
36	Real Santander	4	−12	0