Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.1

Home › Football › Copa Colombia › Internacional de Bogota v Llaneros

Back
Colombia flag

Internacional de Bogota v Llaneros

Internacional de Bogota
4–1Full time
Llaneros

Copa Colombia · FRI 16 OCT · Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 02:30
Internacional de Bogota 4–1 Llaneros INTERNACIONAL DE BOGOTA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Internacional de Bogota win44%
The market said48%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.473
The market’s Brier score0.414

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 30 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Internacional de Bogota win at 44%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Internacional de Bogota 44% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–28–28
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Internacional de Bogota v Llaneros
  4. 17′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Llaneros
  5. 21′We said Internacional de Bogota at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–25–59
  6. 21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Internacional de Bogota 0–1 Llaneros
  7. 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Internacional de Bogota win: 44% at kick-off, 16% now
  8. 21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Llaneros win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Internacional de Bogota win 16%)
  9. 22′Llaneros ahead on 21′ through N. Ospina. 0–1. 0–1 · 16–25–59
  10. 28′We said Internacional de Bogota at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
  11. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Internacional de Bogota win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
  12. 29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Internacional de Bogota
  13. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 14–25–61
  14. 32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Internacional de Bogota 1–1 Llaneros
  15. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Internacional de Bogota win: 44% at kick-off, 38% now
  16. 33′R. Julio scores for Internacional de Bogota on 32′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 38–37–25
  17. 36′We said Internacional de Bogota at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 2–1 · 75–18–6
  18. 36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Internacional de Bogota 2–1 Llaneros
  19. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Internacional de Bogota win: 44% at kick-off, 75% now
  20. 36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Internacional de Bogota win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Llaneros win 6%)
  21. 37′36′: F. Bone on the scoresheet for Internacional de Bogota, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 76–18–6
  22. 38′3 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 76–18–6
  23. 39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Internacional de Bogota
  24. 39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' J. Castro · Internacional de Bogota
  25. 45′HALF-TIME Internacional de Bogota 2–1 Llaneros
  26. 51′SECOND HALF Internacional de Bogota 2–1 Llaneros
  27. 53′We said Internacional de Bogota at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 3–1 · 96–3–0
  28. 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Internacional de Bogota 3–1 Llaneros
  29. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Internacional de Bogota win: 44% at kick-off, 96% now
  30. 54′Internacional de Bogota find the net on 53′. 3–1. 3–1 · 96–3–0
  31. 55′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 96–3–0
  32. 56′We said Internacional de Bogota at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
  33. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Internacional de Bogota · On: M. Angel Amaya Pena · Off: M. Pernia
  34. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Llaneros · On: Kelvin Osorio · Off: M. Sierra
  35. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Llaneros · On: F. Castaneda · Off: J. Castilla
  36. 65′Y. Mena scores for Llaneros on 64′. 3–1 · 98–2–0
  37. 66′GOAL DISALLOWED · 64' Y. Mena · Llaneros
  38. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Llaneros · On: D. Mantilla · Off: B. Chury
  39. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Internacional de Bogota · On: J. Caballero · Off: F. Bone
  40. 76′We said Internacional de Bogota at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  41. 76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Internacional de Bogota 4–1 Llaneros
  42. 77′J. Caballero scores for Internacional de Bogota on 76′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  43. 78′5 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  44. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Llaneros · On: L. Marimon · Off: J. Contreras
  45. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Llaneros · On: E. Pardo · Off: J. Medranda
  46. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Internacional de Bogota · On: D. Duarte · Off: F. Sanguinetti
  47. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Internacional de Bogota · On: R. Manjarres · Off: C. Dajome
  48. 90′4–1 at the end. Our 44% on Internacional de Bogota comes in. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  49. FTFULL TIME Internacional de Bogota 4–1 Llaneros
  50. FTInternacional de Bogota 4–1 Llaneros · Internacional de Bogota win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Internacional de Bogota are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Internacional de Bogota 44%, draw 29%, Llaneros 27%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Internacional de Bogota v LlanerosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Internacional de Bogota win44%
Draw29%
Llaneros win27%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 00:00

RoundQuarter-finals

VenueEstadio Metropolitano de Techo

Line-ups

Internacional de Bogota

Llaneros

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Internacional de Bogota

Llaneros

5Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · Primera A

Last match: 10 Oct · Primera A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026 · Round 1 - Group B

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Llaneros4+59

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Internacional de Bogota

Formation not confirmed

1 W. Farinez

20 J. Castro

2 C. Vivas

26 A. Irazoque

25 R. Julio

8 D. S. Victoria Palacios

5 L. Vasquez

13 M. Pernia

10 F. Bone

7 F. Sanguinetti

11 C. Dajome

Coach · Ricardo Valino

Substitutes

12 · J. Carrasco

6 · M. Angel Amaya Pena

9 · D. Duarte

14 · M. Santamaria

18 · E. Arboleda

22 · S. Girado

23 · J. Caballero

24 · R. Manjarres

32 · J. Palomeque

Llaneros

Formation not confirmed

22 R. Romana Garavito

2 H. H. Mena Posada

21 F. Meza

94 J. Medranda

99 J. Castilla

8 J. Ramirez

6 M. Sierra

10 N. Ospina

14 B. Chury

70 J. Contreras

17 Y. Mena

Coach · Alberto Sandoval Galindo Wilmer

Substitutes

12 · J. Loaiza

4 · J. Pertuz

26 · D. Quintero

31 · E. Pardo

33 · Kelvin Osorio

34 · K. Rincon

19 · D. Mantilla

35 · F. Castaneda

11 · L. Marimon

Our number · internacional de bogota winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off
44% The market48%
Us44%
Market48%

We make Internacional de Bogota a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Internacional de Bogota v Llaneros1.34 – 0.98
Form · Copa Colombia this season · since 7 MayW3 D0 L0 · W3 D1 L1
The market · Internacional de Bogota win48% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 10 OCT 04:0215 OCT 23:40
Our probability · Internacional de Bogota win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Internacional de Bogota win44%48%−4
Draw29%28%+1
Llaneros win27%24%+3
Over 2.5 goals41%47%−6
Both teams to score47%51%−4
Over 1.5 goals68%71%−3
Over 3.5 goals21%27%−6
Internacional de Bogota or draw73%76%−3
Internacional de Bogota clean sheet38%––
Llaneros clean sheet27%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%
0123450 10.8 8.8 4.8 1 12.2 13.7 6.3 2.1 2 8.7 8.5 4.2 3 3.9 3.8 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Internacional de Bogota down, Llaneros across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.52 of 6
Both scored3 of 6
Last meetingsINT 3–2 LLA · LLA 1–1 INT · INT 2–1 LLA · LLA 1–0 INT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Copa Colombia this season · since 7 May

INTERNACIONAL DE BOGOTA

WWW1–0 · 2–1 · 2–1

LLANEROS

WLWWD3–0 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Round 1 - Group B
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Millonarios4+910
2Llaneros4+59
3Chico4+35
4Patriotas4−32
5Depor FC4−141

The competition's standings before kick-off.