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Barranquilla v America de Cali

Barranquilla
0–4Full time
America de Cali

Copa Colombia · THU 22 OCT · Estadio Romelio Martinez

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 04:05
Barranquilla 0–4 America de Cali AMERICA DE CALI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said America de Cali win72%
The market said71%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.119
The market’s Brier score0.128

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 23 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said America de Cali win at 72%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: America de Cali was 72% before kick-off and our model makes it 72% now. 0–0 · 9–18–72
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Barranquilla v America de Cali
  4. 8′America de Cali find the net on 7′. 0–0 · 10–20–70
  5. 8′We published America de Cali at 72%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 2–7–90
  6. 8′⚽ GOAL · 7' Barranquilla 0–1 America de Cali
  7. 8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' America de Cali win: 72% at kick-off, 90% now
  8. 25′We published America de Cali at 72%. Our model now makes it 89%. 0–1 · 2–8–89
  9. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 2–9–89
  10. 32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Barranquilla
  11. 33′PENALTY MISSED · 32' Y. Guzman · America de Cali
  12. 34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' America de Cali
  13. 38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Barranquilla
  14. 39′🟨 YELLOW · 39' America de Cali
  15. 44′T. Angel scores for America de Cali on 43′. 0–1 · 2–9–89
  16. 44′We published America de Cali at 72%. Our model now makes it 98%. 0–2 · 0–1–98
  17. 44′⚽ GOAL · 43' Barranquilla 0–2 America de Cali · T. Angel
  18. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' America de Cali win: 72% at kick-off, 98% now
  19. 45′We published America de Cali at 72%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  20. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Barranquilla 0–3 America de Cali
  21. 45′HALF-TIME Barranquilla 0–3 America de Cali
  22. 45′SECOND HALF Barranquilla 0–3 America de Cali
  23. 46′America de Cali ahead on 45′ through E. Tortolero. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  24. 47′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  25. 50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' America de Cali · On: J. Palacios · Off: E. Tortolero
  26. 50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' America de Cali · On: M. Mina · Off: L. Quinones
  27. 60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Barranquilla
  28. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Barranquilla · On: S. Borja · Off: M. Pino
  29. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' America de Cali · On: J. A. Camacho Anchico · Off: Y. Guzman
  30. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' America de Cali · On: C. Amu · Off: Y. Quintero
  31. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' America de Cali · On: M. Torres · Off: M. Mina
  32. 69′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  33. 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Barranquilla 0–4 America de Cali
  34. 70′T. Angel scores for America de Cali on 69′ — 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  35. 80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Barranquilla
  36. 90′Full time, 0–4. We called America de Cali at 72% — that one lands. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  37. FTFULL TIME Barranquilla 0–4 America de Cali
  38. FTBarranquilla 0–4 America de Cali · America de Cali win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

America de Cali are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Barranquilla 9%, draw 18%, America de Cali 72%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Barranquilla v America de CaliBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Barranquilla win9%
Draw18%
America de Cali win72%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 01:30

RoundQuarter-finals

VenueEstadio Romelio Martinez

Line-ups

Barranquilla

America de Cali

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Barranquilla

America de Cali

4Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · the Colombian Primera B

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera A

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Barranquilla

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Guerra Navarro

9 M. Pino

7 D. Torres

31 D. A. Mendoza Benitez

21 A. Orozco

23 P. Oviedo

36 J. Navia

30 L. Gomez

4 E. Herazo

8 M. Bolivar

10 Ortiz Javier

Coach · Dayron Perez

Substitutes

33 · D. Mosquera

3 · O. Cassiani

15 · S. Borja

11 · J. Munoz

27 · N. Uribe

20 · J. Cortez

18 · J. Lozano

16 · M. Agamez

America de Cali

Formation not confirmed

1 Jean

17 J. Lucumi

3 D. Rosero

24 C. Tovar

30 O. Bertel

18 Y. Quintero

15 R. Carrascal

23 L. Quinones

10 Y. Guzman

77 E. Tortolero

21 T. Angel

Coach · David Gonzalez

Substitutes

12 · J. Montoya

2 · M. Torres

14 · M. Mina

22 · N. Hernandez

29 · C. Amu

7 · J. Murillo

36 · J. A. Camacho Anchico

88 · J. Palacios

Our number · america de cali winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off
72% The market71%
Us72%
Market71%

We make America de Cali a 72% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 0.6–2.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Barranquilla v America de Cali0.65 – 2.18
Form · Copa Colombia this season · since 22 JulyW0 D3 L0 · W2 D1 L0
The market · America de Cali win71% · ours 72%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
65%70%75% 15 OCT 04:3322 OCT 01:14
Our probability · America de Cali win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 71% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Barranquilla win9%11%−2
Draw18%18%0
America de Cali win72%71%+1
Over 2.5 goals54%63%−9
Both teams to score43%53%−10
Over 1.5 goals78%82%−4
Over 3.5 goals31%43%−12
Barranquilla or draw28%29%−1
Barranquilla clean sheet11%––
America de Cali clean sheet52%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 14.1%
0123450 6.2 12.7 14.1 10.2 5.6 2.41 3.6 8.6 9.1 6.6 3.6 2 2.7 2.9 2.1 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Barranquilla down, America de Cali across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Copa Colombia this season · since 22 July

BARRANQUILLA

DDD2–2 · 3–3 · 1–1

AMERICA DE CALI

WDW2–1 · 1–1 · 4–1