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Atletico Nacional v Independiente Medellin

Atletico Nacional
3–2Full time
Independiente Medellin

Copa Colombia · THU 15 OCT · Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 05:30
Atletico Nacional 3–2 Independiente Medellin ATLETICO NACIONAL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Atletico Nacional win56%
The market said53%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.286
The market’s Brier score0.331

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 42 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Atletico Nacional win at 56%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Atletico Nacional was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–23–20
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Atletico Nacional v Independiente Medellin
  4. 12′11′ and it is 1–0: Atletico Nacional have scored. 1–0 · 80–14–6
  5. 12′⚽ GOAL · 11' Atletico Nacional 1–0 Independiente Medellin
  6. 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Atletico Nacional win: 56% at kick-off, 80% now
  7. 13′We published Atletico Nacional at 56%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–14–6
  8. 18′GOAL DISALLOWED · 18' Atletico Nacional
  9. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Atletico Nacional win: 56% at kick-off, 53% now
  10. 24′24′ and it is 1–0: C. Haydar on the scoresheet for Atletico Nacional. 1–0 · 80–14–6
  11. 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Atletico Nacional 1–0 Independiente Medellin · C. Haydar
  12. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Atletico Nacional win: 56% at kick-off, 80% now
  13. 25′23′ and it is 1–0: C. Haydar on the scoresheet for Atletico Nacional. 1–0 · 80–14–6
  14. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 80–15–5
  15. 39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' J. Campuzano · Atletico Nacional
  16. 41′Atletico Nacional find the net on 41′. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–4–1
  17. 41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Atletico Nacional 2–0 Independiente Medellin
  18. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Atletico Nacional win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
  19. 42′We published Atletico Nacional at 56%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
  20. 45′HALF-TIME Atletico Nacional 2–0 Independiente Medellin
  21. 46′SECOND HALF Atletico Nacional 2–0 Independiente Medellin
  22. 53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Independiente Medellin · On: E. Mena Perea · Off: D. Catano
  23. 56′Atletico Nacional ahead on 42′ through F. Fabra. 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
  24. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Atletico Nacional · On: J. Rengifo · Off: M. Uribe
  25. 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Atletico Nacional 2–1 Independiente Medellin · A. Martegani
  26. 64′A. Martegani scores for Independiente Medellin on 63′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 84–14–2
  27. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Atletico Nacional win: 56% at kick-off, 84% now
  28. 65′We published Atletico Nacional at 56%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
  29. 65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Atletico Nacional 3–1 Independiente Medellin
  30. 66′65′ and it is 3–1: A. Roman on the scoresheet for Atletico Nacional. 3–1 · 98–2–0
  31. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Atletico Nacional win: 56% at kick-off, 98% now
  32. 67′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 98–2–0
  33. 67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Independiente Medellin
  34. 67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' D. Moreno · Independiente Medellin
  35. 70′Independiente Medellin find the net on 70′. 3–2. 3–2 · 86–12–1
  36. 70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Atletico Nacional 3–2 Independiente Medellin
  37. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Atletico Nacional win: 56% at kick-off, 86% now
  38. 71′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 87–12–1
  39. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Atletico Nacional · On: N. Rodriguez · Off: E. Cardona
  40. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Atletico Nacional · On: J. Zapata · Off: J. Campuzano
  41. 78′We published Atletico Nacional at 56%. Our model now makes it 90%. 3–2 · 90–9–1
  42. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Independiente Medellin · On: D. Moreno · Off: H. Loboa
  43. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Independiente Medellin · On: Yony Gonzalez · Off: C. Lucumi
  44. 81′GOAL DISALLOWED · 11' C. Haydar · Atletico Nacional
  45. 81′🟨 YELLOW · 38' J. Campuzano · Atletico Nacional
  46. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Independiente Medellin · On: E. Mena Perea · Off: D. Catano
  47. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Atletico Nacional · On: J. Rengifo · Off: M. Uribe
  48. 81′🟨 YELLOW · 66' D. Moreno · Independiente Medellin
  49. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Atletico Nacional · On: N. Rodriguez · Off: E. Cardona
  50. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Atletico Nacional · On: J. Zapata · Off: J. Campuzano
  51. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Independiente Medellin · On: D. Moreno · Off: H. Loboa
  52. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Independiente Medellin · On: Yony Gonzalez · Off: C. Lucumi
  53. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Atletico Nacional · On: K. Parra Atehortua · Off: J. Rodriguez
  54. 86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Independiente Medellin
  55. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Atletico Nacional · On: M. Casco · Off: S. Velasquez
  56. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Atletico Nacional win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
  57. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 86' L. Escorcia · Independiente Medellin
  58. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Independiente Medellin · On: K. Klinger · Off: J. Montano
  59. FTFULL TIME Atletico Nacional 3–2 Independiente Medellin
  60. FTAtletico Nacional 3–2 Independiente Medellin · Atletico Nacional win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atletico Nacional are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atletico Nacional 56%, draw 24%, Independiente Medellin 19%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Atletico Nacional v Independiente MedellinBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 15 Oct 02:00 · locked at kick-off

Atletico Nacional win56%
Draw24%
Independiente Medellin win19%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 02:30

VenueEstadio Atanasio Girardot

Line-ups

Atletico Nacional

Independiente Medellin

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atletico Nacional

Independiente Medellin

7Days since last match3
2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Independiente Medellin428

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Atletico Nacional

Formation not confirmed

34 F. Armani

3 N. Parra

4 C. Haydar

6 A. Roman

33 S. Velasquez

21 J. Campuzano

26 F. Marin

8 M. Uribe

22 E. Cabrera

10 E. Cardona

23 J. Rodriguez

Coach · Lucas Gonzalez

Substitutes

25 · L. Marquinez

38 · J. Moreno

20 · M. Casco

80 · J. Zapata

19 · J. Rengifo

30 · K. Parra Atehortua

13 · N. Rodriguez

32 · E. Benitez

39 · E. Echeverria

Independiente Medellin

Formation not confirmed

25 E. Chaux

30 H. Palacios

39 L. Escorcia

5 J. Varela

18 F. Fabra

6 D. Moreno

16 H. Loboa

21 A. Martegani

10 D. Catano

32 C. Lucumi

20 J. Montano

Coach · Luis Perea

Substitutes

1 · S. Ichazo

4 · K. Mantilla

14 · B. Perlaza

11 · Yony Gonzalez

26 · E. Mena Perea

24 · N. Erazo

34 · K. Klinger

31 · D. Moreno

90 · E. Larrosa

Our number · atletico nacional winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 15 Oct 02:00 · locked at kick-off
56% The market53%
Us56%
Market53%

We make Atletico Nacional a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Atletico Nacional v Independiente Medellin1.83 – 0.98
Last six in Copa ColombiaW3 D2 L1 · W2 D2 L2
The market · Atletico Nacional win53% · ours 56%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60% 9 OCT 07:2614 OCT 04:57
Our probability · atletico nacional win The market, margin stripped

Published at 57%, 56% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Atletico Nacional win56%53%+3
Draw24%26%−1
Independiente Medellin win19%21%−2
Over 2.5 goals53%52%+1
Both teams to score53%54%−1
Over 1.5 goals78%74%+3
Over 3.5 goals31%30%+1
Atletico Nacional or draw81%79%+2
Atletico Nacional clean sheet38%––
Independiente Medellin clean sheet16%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%
0123450 6.8 5.2 2.9 1 10.3 11.4 5.3 2 10.0 9.7 4.8 3 6.1 6.0 2.9 4 2.8 2.8 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico Nacional down, Independiente Medellin across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

22 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting2.95
Over 2.511 of 22
Both scored15 of 22
Last meetingsIND 2–3 ATL · ATL 2–1 IND · IND 0–0 ATL · ATL 5–2 IND

Form · last six in Copa Colombia

ATLETICO NACIONAL

WWLDWD2–0 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–0

INDEPENDIENTE MEDELLIN

DWLDLW2–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Independiente Medellin428
2Fortaleza FC425
3Leones FC4-15
4Cucuta4-13
5Orsomarso4-23

The competition's standings.