Tatung v Kaohsiung prediction · Taiwan Football Premier League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

Tatung 1–1 Kaohsiung KAOHSIUNG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Kaohsiung win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.889

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kaohsiung win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Kaohsiung 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 38–23–39
1′KICK-OFF Tatung v Kaohsiung
11′A goal for Tatung on 11′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 62–21–17
11′We said Kaohsiung at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 1–0 · 62–21–17
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Tatung 1–0 Kaohsiung
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Kaohsiung win: 39% at kick-off, 17% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Tatung win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Kaohsiung win 17%)
24′We said Kaohsiung at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 64–22–14
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 65–22–13
45′HALF-TIME Tatung 1–0 Kaohsiung
46′We said Kaohsiung at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–22–9
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Kaohsiung win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
46′SECOND HALF Tatung 1–0 Kaohsiung
66′We said Kaohsiung at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 77–19–4
78′Kaohsiung score on 77′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 14–71–15
78′⚽ GOAL · 77' Tatung 1–1 Kaohsiung
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Kaohsiung win: 39% at kick-off, 15% now
78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Draw is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Tatung win 14%)
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Kaohsiung win: 39% at kick-off, 8% now
FTFULL TIME Tatung 1–1 Kaohsiung
FTTatung 1–1 Kaohsiung · Kaohsiung win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Kaohsiung just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Tatung 38%, draw 23%, Kaohsiung 39%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Tatung v KaohsiungBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Tatung win38%

Draw23%

Kaohsiung win39%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tatung

Kaohsiung

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Taiwan Football Premier League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kaohsiung winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Kaohsiung a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tatung v Kaohsiung~~1.41 – 1.45

~~Form · Taiwan Football Premier League this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D2 L0 · W2 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 5 v 7~~4 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tatung win	38%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Kaohsiung win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Tatung or draw	61%	–	–
Tatung clean sheet	25%	–	–
Kaohsiung clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.5 9.4 6.1 3.0 1 9.2 10.5 8.0 3.9 2 5.8 7.8 5.5 2.7 3 2.8 3.7 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tatung down, Kaohsiung across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 468 Taiwan Football Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Taiwan Football Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Tatung at home: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Kaohsiung away: 2.00 scored, 0.00 conceded (last 1).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Tatung, 1.45 for Kaohsiung. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Taiwan Football Premier League this season · since 13 Sept

TATUNG

WDD1–0 · 0–0 · 0–0

KAOHSIUNG

WWD5–2 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kaohsiung	3	+5	7
2	AC Taipei	3	+2	6
3	Taipower	3	+2	6
4	Tatung	3	+1	5
5	Hang Yuen	3	0	3
6	Taichung Futuro	3	−2	3
7	Tainan City	3	−2	2
8	Taichung Rock FC	3	−6	0