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Yunnan Yukun v Chongqing Tongliang Long

Yunnan Yukun
1–1Full time
Chongqing Tongliang Long

Super League · SAT 17 OCT · Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35
Yunnan Yukun 1–1 Chongqing Tongliang Long YUNNAN YUKUN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Yunnan Yukun win50%
The market said55%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.898
The market’s Brier score0.938

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 21 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Yunnan Yukun win at 50%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Yunnan Yukun was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–24–26
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Yunnan Yukun v Chongqing Tongliang Long
  4. 34′Yunnan Yukun ahead on 34′ through Cleber. 1–0. 1–0 · 75–17–8
  5. 34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Yunnan Yukun 1–0 Chongqing Tongliang Long · Cleber
  6. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Yunnan Yukun win: 50% at kick-off, 75% now
  7. 35′We published Yunnan Yukun at 50%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–8
  8. 35′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 75–17–8
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Yunnan Yukun 1–0 Chongqing Tongliang Long
  10. 46′SECOND HALF Yunnan Yukun 1–0 Chongqing Tongliang Long
  11. 53′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Chongqing Tongliang Long · On: Wu Yongqiang · Off: Liang Weipeng
  12. 53′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Chongqing Tongliang Long · On: Liu Mingshi · Off: He Xiaoqiang
  13. 56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Caio Vinicius · Yunnan Yukun
  14. 63′We published Yunnan Yukun at 50%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
  15. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Yunnan Yukun win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
  16. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Yunnan Yukun · On: Zhang Chenliang · Off: Yang Zihao
  17. 74′We published Yunnan Yukun at 50%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
  18. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Chongqing Tongliang Long · On: Zhang Yingkai · Off: Wei Suowei
  19. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Chongqing Tongliang Long · On: Du Yuezheng · Off: Xiang Yuwang
  20. 81′We published Yunnan Yukun at 50%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
  21. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Yunnan Yukun win: 50% at kick-off, 90% now
  22. 83′G. Cimpanu scores for Chongqing Tongliang Long on 82′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 12–80–8
  23. 83′We said Yunnan Yukun at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 1–1 · 12–80–8
  24. 83′Yunnan Yukun have had 16 attempts to 4 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 12–80–8
  25. 83′⚽ GOAL · 82' Yunnan Yukun 1–1 Chongqing Tongliang Long · G. Cimpanu (penalty)
  26. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Yunnan Yukun win: 50% at kick-off, 12% now
  27. 83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Draw is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Yunnan Yukun win 12%)
  28. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Chongqing Tongliang Long · On: Ruan Qilong · Off: L. Dimata
  29. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Yunnan Yukun win: 50% at kick-off, 10% now
  30. 86′We said Yunnan Yukun at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–85–6
  31. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Yunnan Yukun · On: J. Saeter · Off: Abdusalam Bunyamin
  32. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Yunnan Yukun · On: Han Zilong · Off: Xu Xin
  33. FTFULL TIME Yunnan Yukun 1–1 Chongqing Tongliang Long
  34. FTYunnan Yukun 1–1 Chongqing Tongliang Long · Yunnan Yukun win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Yunnan Yukun are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Yunnan Yukun 50%, draw 24%, Chongqing Tongliang Long 26%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Yunnan Yukun v Chongqing Tongliang LongBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Yunnan Yukun win50%
Draw24%
Chongqing Tongliang Long win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:35

RoundMatchday 28

VenueYuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium

Line-ups

Yunnan Yukun

4-1-4-1

Chongqing Tongliang Long

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Yunnan Yukun

Chongqing Tongliang Long

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · the Chinese Super League

Last match: 11 Oct · the Chinese Super League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Yunnan Yukun27−338
9Chongqing Tongliang Long27−532

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Yunnan Yukun

4-1-4-1

23 Wang Zhifeng

3 Tsui Wang-Kit

33 A. Burca

2 Hu Ruibao

21 Yang Zihao

8 Xu Xin

39 Abdusalam Bunyamin

10 A. Ionita II

34 Caio Vinicius

11 O. Taty Maritu

9 Cleber

Coach · Jordi Vinyals

Substitutes

1 · Bao Yaxiong

24 · Yu Jianxian

5 · Shi Ke

27 · Han Zilong

26 · Zhang Chenliang

16 · Zhang Xiangshuo

6 · Zhao Yuhao

30 · J. Saeter

17 · Sun Xuelong

22 · Duan Liuyu

7 · Ye Chugui

36 · Fei Ernanduo

Chongqing Tongliang Long

Formation not confirmed

1 Yao Haoyang

37 Wei Suowei

4 Yue Ruijie

33 Lucao

26 He Xiaoqiang

9 G. Cimpanu

10 I. Amadou

16 Zhang Zhixiong

18 Liang Weipeng

11 L. Dimata

7 Xiang Yuwang

Coach · –

Substitutes

25 · Yerzat Yerjet

31 · Wu Zitong

6 · Jin Pengxiang

38 · Ruan Qilong

3 · Zhang Yingkai

24 · Liu Mingshi

27 · Wu Yongqiang

21 · Liu Jiale

19 · Du Yuezheng

17 · Ng Yu-Hei

15 · Chen Chunxin

Our number · yunnan yukun winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
50% The market55%
Us50%
Market55%

We make Yunnan Yukun a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Yunnan Yukun v Chongqing Tongliang Long1.85 – 1.29
Form · last six in Super League this season · since 8 AugW3 D1 L2 · W0 D3 L3
Table places · points 38 v 325 v 9
The market · Yunnan Yukun win55% · ours 50%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60%65% 11 OCT 04:0117 OCT 12:15
Our probability · Yunnan Yukun win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Yunnan Yukun win50%55%−5
Draw24%23%+1
Chongqing Tongliang Long win26%22%+4
Over 2.5 goals60%60%0
Both teams to score60%60%0
Over 1.5 goals82%81%+1
Over 3.5 goals38%39%−1
Yunnan Yukun or draw74%78%−4
Yunnan Yukun clean sheet28%––
Chongqing Tongliang Long clean sheet17%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%
0123450 5.3 5.2 3.7 1 7.7 10.8 6.5 2.8 2 7.4 9.2 5.8 2.5 3 4.5 5.6 3.6 4 2.2 2.7 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Yunnan Yukun down, Chongqing Tongliang Long across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023
Goals a meeting1.67
Over 2.51 of 6
Both scored3 of 6
Last meetingsYUN 1–0 CHO · CHO 0–0 YUN · CHO 3–2 YUN · YUN 1–1 CHO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League this season · since 8 Aug

YUNNAN YUKUN

WWDLWL1–0 · 3–1 · 3–3 · 0–6 · 5–0 · 1–7

CHONGQING TONGLIANG LONG

LDLDLD2–3 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Chengdu Better City27+2052
2Dalian Zhixing27043
3Beijing Guoan27+1941
4Shandong Luneng27+338
5Yunnan Yukun27−338
6Qingdao Youth Island27−538
7SHANGHAI SIPG27+936
8Shanghai Shenhua27+1234
9Chongqing Tongliang Long27−532
10Tianjin Teda28+631
11Hangzhou Greentown27031
12Sichuan Jiuniu27−1129
13Henan Jianye28−328
14Shenyang Urban27−1326
15Wuhan Three Towns27−722
16Qingdao Jonoon27−2214

The competition's standings before kick-off.