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Yunnan Yukun v Chongqing Tongliang Long
Yunnan Yukun
Chongqing Tongliang LongSuper League · SAT 17 OCT · Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Yunnan Yukun win at 50%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Yunnan Yukun was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–24–26
- 1′KICK-OFF Yunnan Yukun v Chongqing Tongliang Long
- 34′Yunnan Yukun ahead on 34′ through Cleber. 1–0. 1–0 · 75–17–8
- 34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Yunnan Yukun 1–0 Chongqing Tongliang Long · Cleber
- 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Yunnan Yukun win: 50% at kick-off, 75% now
- 35′We published Yunnan Yukun at 50%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–8
- 35′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 75–17–8
- 45′HALF-TIME Yunnan Yukun 1–0 Chongqing Tongliang Long
- 46′SECOND HALF Yunnan Yukun 1–0 Chongqing Tongliang Long
- 53′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Chongqing Tongliang Long · On: Wu Yongqiang · Off: Liang Weipeng
- 53′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Chongqing Tongliang Long · On: Liu Mingshi · Off: He Xiaoqiang
- 56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Caio Vinicius · Yunnan Yukun
- 63′We published Yunnan Yukun at 50%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
- 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Yunnan Yukun win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
- 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Yunnan Yukun · On: Zhang Chenliang · Off: Yang Zihao
- 74′We published Yunnan Yukun at 50%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
- 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Chongqing Tongliang Long · On: Zhang Yingkai · Off: Wei Suowei
- 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Chongqing Tongliang Long · On: Du Yuezheng · Off: Xiang Yuwang
- 81′We published Yunnan Yukun at 50%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
- 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Yunnan Yukun win: 50% at kick-off, 90% now
- 83′G. Cimpanu scores for Chongqing Tongliang Long on 82′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 12–80–8
- 83′We said Yunnan Yukun at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 1–1 · 12–80–8
- 83′Yunnan Yukun have had 16 attempts to 4 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 12–80–8
- 83′⚽ GOAL · 82' Yunnan Yukun 1–1 Chongqing Tongliang Long · G. Cimpanu (penalty)
- 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Yunnan Yukun win: 50% at kick-off, 12% now
- 83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Draw is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Yunnan Yukun win 12%)
- 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Chongqing Tongliang Long · On: Ruan Qilong · Off: L. Dimata
- 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Yunnan Yukun win: 50% at kick-off, 10% now
- 86′We said Yunnan Yukun at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–85–6
- 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Yunnan Yukun · On: J. Saeter · Off: Abdusalam Bunyamin
- 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Yunnan Yukun · On: Han Zilong · Off: Xu Xin
- FTFULL TIME Yunnan Yukun 1–1 Chongqing Tongliang Long
- FTYunnan Yukun 1–1 Chongqing Tongliang Long · Yunnan Yukun win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassYunnan Yukun are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Yunnan Yukun 50%, draw 24%, Chongqing Tongliang Long 26%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 60%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Yunnan Yukun win50%
Chongqing Tongliang Long win26%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:35
RoundMatchday 28
VenueYuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium
Match timeline
All events
Yunnan YukunMIN
Chongqing Tongliang LongEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Yunnan Yukun
4-1-4-1
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Yunnan Yukun
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Last match: 10 Oct · the Chinese Super League
Last match: 11 Oct · the Chinese Super League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Yunnan Yukun
4-1-4-1
23 Wang Zhifeng
3 Tsui Wang-Kit
33 A. Burca
2 Hu Ruibao
21 Yang Zihao
8 Xu Xin
39 Abdusalam Bunyamin
10 A. Ionita II
34 Caio Vinicius
11 O. Taty Maritu
9 Cleber
Coach · Jordi Vinyals
Substitutes
1 · Bao Yaxiong
24 · Yu Jianxian
5 · Shi Ke
27 · Han Zilong
26 · Zhang Chenliang
16 · Zhang Xiangshuo
6 · Zhao Yuhao
30 · J. Saeter
17 · Sun Xuelong
22 · Duan Liuyu
7 · Ye Chugui
36 · Fei Ernanduo
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Formation not confirmed
1 Yao Haoyang
37 Wei Suowei
4 Yue Ruijie
33 Lucao
26 He Xiaoqiang
9 G. Cimpanu
10 I. Amadou
16 Zhang Zhixiong
18 Liang Weipeng
11 L. Dimata
7 Xiang Yuwang
Coach · –
Substitutes
25 · Yerzat Yerjet
31 · Wu Zitong
6 · Jin Pengxiang
38 · Ruan Qilong
3 · Zhang Yingkai
24 · Liu Mingshi
27 · Wu Yongqiang
21 · Liu Jiale
19 · Du Yuezheng
17 · Ng Yu-Hei
15 · Chen Chunxin
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Yunnan Yukun
4-1-4-1
23 Wang Zhifeng
3 Tsui Wang-Kit
33 A. Burca
2 Hu Ruibao
21 Yang Zihao
8 Xu Xin
39 Abdusalam Bunyamin
10 A. Ionita II
34 Caio Vinicius
11 O. Taty Maritu
9 Cleber
Coach · Jordi Vinyals
Substitutes
1 · Bao Yaxiong
24 · Yu Jianxian
5 · Shi Ke
27 · Han Zilong
26 · Zhang Chenliang
16 · Zhang Xiangshuo
6 · Zhao Yuhao
30 · J. Saeter
17 · Sun Xuelong
22 · Duan Liuyu
7 · Ye Chugui
36 · Fei Ernanduo
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Formation not confirmed
1 Yao Haoyang
37 Wei Suowei
4 Yue Ruijie
33 Lucao
26 He Xiaoqiang
9 G. Cimpanu
10 I. Amadou
16 Zhang Zhixiong
18 Liang Weipeng
11 L. Dimata
7 Xiang Yuwang
Coach · –
Substitutes
25 · Yerzat Yerjet
31 · Wu Zitong
6 · Jin Pengxiang
38 · Ruan Qilong
3 · Zhang Yingkai
24 · Liu Mingshi
27 · Wu Yongqiang
21 · Liu Jiale
19 · Du Yuezheng
17 · Ng Yu-Hei
15 · Chen Chunxin
We make Yunnan Yukun a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yunnan Yukun win | 50% | 55% | −5 |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | +1 |
| Chongqing Tongliang Long win | 26% | 22% | +4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 39% | −1 |
| Yunnan Yukun or draw | 74% | 78% | −4 |
| Yunnan Yukun clean sheet | 28% | – | – |
| Chongqing Tongliang Long clean sheet | 17% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
6 meetings since 2023Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Super League this season · since 8 Aug
YUNNAN YUKUN
CHONGQING TONGLIANG LONG
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chengdu Better City | 27 | +20 | 52 |
| 2 | Dalian Zhixing | 27 | 0 | 43 |
| 3 | Beijing Guoan | 27 | +19 | 41 |
| 4 | Shandong Luneng | 27 | +3 | 38 |
| 5 | Yunnan Yukun | 27 | −3 | 38 |
| 6 | Qingdao Youth Island | 27 | −5 | 38 |
| 7 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 27 | +9 | 36 |
| 8 | Shanghai Shenhua | 27 | +12 | 34 |
| 9 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 27 | −5 | 32 |
| 10 | Tianjin Teda | 28 | +6 | 31 |
| 11 | Hangzhou Greentown | 27 | 0 | 31 |
| 12 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 27 | −11 | 29 |
| 13 | Henan Jianye | 28 | −3 | 28 |
| 14 | Shenyang Urban | 27 | −13 | 26 |
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 27 | −7 | 22 |
| 16 | Qingdao Jonoon | 27 | −22 | 14 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Chengdu Better City
Dalian Zhixing
Beijing Guoan
Shandong Luneng
Qingdao Youth Island
SHANGHAI SIPG
Shanghai Shenhua
Tianjin Teda
Hangzhou Greentown
Sichuan Jiuniu
Henan Jianye
Shenyang Urban
Wuhan Three Towns
Qingdao Jonoon