Wuhan Three Towns v Shanghai Shenhua

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Shanghai Shenhua win at 50%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Shanghai Shenhua was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 28–22–50
3. 1′KICK-OFF Wuhan Three Towns v Shanghai Shenhua
4. 2′We published Shanghai Shenhua at 50%. Our model now makes it 72%. 0–1 · 13–15–72
5. 2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Wuhan Three Towns 0–1 Shanghai Shenhua
6. 2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Shanghai Shenhua win: 50% at kick-off, 72% now
7. 3′2′: L. Asue on the scoresheet for Shanghai Shenhua, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 13–15–72
8. 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.7 we expected. 0–1 · 11–17–72
9. 43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' L. Asue · Shanghai Shenhua
10. 45′HALF-TIME Wuhan Three Towns 0–1 Shanghai Shenhua
11. 45′SECOND HALF Wuhan Three Towns 0–1 Shanghai Shenhua
12. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Zhu Chenjie · Shanghai Shenhua
13. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Wuhan Three Towns · On: A. Leautey · Off: Wang Jinxian Corrected
14. 51′We published Shanghai Shenhua at 50%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 7–18–75
15. 60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Li Shenyuan · Wuhan Three Towns
16. 62′Wuhan Three Towns level it on 62′ through J. Cadiz. 1–1. 1–1 · 23–43–34
17. 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Wuhan Three Towns 1–1 Shanghai Shenhua · J. Cadiz
18. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Shanghai Shenhua win: 50% at kick-off, 34% now
19. 62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Shanghai Shenhua win 34%)
20. 63′We said Shanghai Shenhua at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 22–44–33
21. 68′Rafael Ratao scores for Shanghai Shenhua on 67′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 4–17–80
22. 68′We published Shanghai Shenhua at 50%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–2 · 4–17–80
23. 68′⚽ GOAL · 67' Wuhan Three Towns 1–2 Shanghai Shenhua · Rafael Ratao (penalty)
24. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Shanghai Shenhua win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
25. 68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Shanghai Shenhua win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 17%)
26. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Shanghai Shenhua · On: Xu Haoyang · Off: Xie Pengfei Corrected
27. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Shanghai Shenhua · On: Chan Shinichi · Off: Yang Zexiang Corrected
28. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Wuhan Three Towns · On: J. Xiong · Off: Li Shenyuan Corrected
29. 77′We published Shanghai Shenhua at 50%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
30. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Shanghai Shenhua · On: Wang Haijian · Off: Gao Tianyi Corrected
31. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Wuhan Three Towns · On: Liu Binbin · Off: Gustavo Sauer Corrected
32. 83′We published Shanghai Shenhua at 50%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
33. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Shanghai Shenhua win: 50% at kick-off, 90% now
34. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Shanghai Shenhua · On: Jiang Shenglong · Off: J. Teixeira Corrected
35. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Wuhan Three Towns · On: Zheng Haoqian · Off: Zhang Xiaobin Corrected
36. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Shanghai Shenhua · On: Han Jiawen · Off: L. Asue Corrected
37. 88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Xu Haofeng · Wuhan Three Towns
38. 89′We published Shanghai Shenhua at 50%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
39. 90′Full time, 1–3. We called Shanghai Shenhua at 50% — that one lands. 1–3 · 0–0–100
40. 91′Han Jiawen scores for Shanghai Shenhua on 90′. 1–2 · 0–4–96 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
41. 92′We published Shanghai Shenhua at 50%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
42. 92′4 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–0–100
43. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Wuhan Three Towns 1–3 Shanghai Shenhua · Han Jiawen (assist Wu Xi)
44. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Shanghai Shenhua win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
45. FTFULL TIME Wuhan Three Towns 1–3 Shanghai Shenhua
46. FTWuhan Three Towns 1–3 Shanghai Shenhua · Shanghai Shenhua win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.