Tianjin Teda v SHANGHAI SIPG prediction · Super League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 11:02

Tianjin Teda 1–3 SHANGHAI SIPG SHANGHAI SIPG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SHANGHAI SIPG win~~40%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.551

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.594

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said SHANGHAI SIPG win at 40%.
1′KICK-OFF Tianjin Teda v SHANGHAI SIPG
2′Little has changed for our model: SHANGHAI SIPG 40% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 33–27–39
19′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Xie Weijun · Tianjin Teda
37′🟨 YELLOW · 36' C. Salvador · Tianjin Teda
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was SHANGHAI SIPG win 35%)
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' A. Yang · SHANGHAI SIPG
45′45′: P. O. Ampem on the scoresheet for SHANGHAI SIPG, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 8–20–72
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Tianjin Teda 0–1 SHANGHAI SIPG · P. O. Ampem
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' SHANGHAI SIPG win: 40% at kick-off, 72% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' SHANGHAI SIPG win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 40%)
45′HALF-TIME Tianjin Teda 0–1 SHANGHAI SIPG
46′We said SHANGHAI SIPG at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 0–1 · 8–20–72
46′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 8–20–72
46′SECOND HALF Tianjin Teda 0–1 SHANGHAI SIPG
53′SHANGHAI SIPG ahead on 53′ through Leonardo. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–94
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Tianjin Teda 0–2 SHANGHAI SIPG · Leonardo (penalty)
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' SHANGHAI SIPG win: 40% at kick-off, 94% now
54′We said SHANGHAI SIPG at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 0–2 · 1–5–94
55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Yue Xin · SHANGHAI SIPG
57′SHANGHAI SIPG are down to ten from 56′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–2 · 1–5–95
57′🟥 RED CARD · 56' Yue Xin · SHANGHAI SIPG
58′We said SHANGHAI SIPG at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Yu Genwei · Tianjin Teda
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Tianjin Teda · On: Ji Shengpan · Off: Huang Jiahui
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Liu Zhurun · SHANGHAI SIPG
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Tianjin Teda · On: Chen Zhexuan · Off: Xie Weijun
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Tianjin Teda · On: Wu Xinghan · Off: Ba Dun
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' SHANGHAI SIPG · On: Li Shuai · Off: P. O. Ampem
71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Wei Zhen · SHANGHAI SIPG
73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Leonardo · SHANGHAI SIPG
74′Chen Zhexuan scores for Tianjin Teda on 74′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 2–14–84
74′We said SHANGHAI SIPG at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–2 · 2–14–84
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Tianjin Teda 1–2 SHANGHAI SIPG · Chen Zhexuan
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' SHANGHAI SIPG win: 40% at kick-off, 84% now
75′Sun Ming-Him scores for Tianjin Teda on 73′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 2–14–84
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' SHANGHAI SIPG · On: Kuai Jiwen · Off: Liu Zhurun
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' SHANGHAI SIPG · On: Zhang Yuan · Off: O. Melendo
76′We said SHANGHAI SIPG at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 1–13–85
76′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 1–13–85
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Tianjin Teda · On: Wang Qiuming · Off: Guilherme Schettine
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Tianjin Teda · On: J. Liu · Off: C. Salvador
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' SHANGHAI SIPG win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
87′87′: Leonardo on the scoresheet for SHANGHAI SIPG, making it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Tianjin Teda 1–3 SHANGHAI SIPG · Leonardo
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' SHANGHAI SIPG win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
88′We said SHANGHAI SIPG at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
88′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–0–100
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' SHANGHAI SIPG · On: X. Li · Off: Leonardo
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' SHANGHAI SIPG · On: Wang Shenchao · Off: Mateus Vital
FTFULL TIME Tianjin Teda 1–3 SHANGHAI SIPG
FTTianjin Teda 1–3 SHANGHAI SIPG · SHANGHAI SIPG win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SHANGHAI SIPG are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tianjin Teda 34%, draw 27%, SHANGHAI SIPG 40%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Tianjin Teda v SHANGHAI SIPGBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Tianjin Teda win34%

Draw27%

SHANGHAI SIPG win40%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 08:30

RoundMatchday 29

VenueOlympic Sports Center Stadium

Line-ups

Tianjin Teda

5-3-2

SHANGHAI SIPG

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tianjin Teda

SHANGHAI SIPG

8Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · the Chinese Super League

Last match: 18 Oct · the Chinese Super League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	SHANGHAI SIPG	28	+12	39
10	Tianjin Teda	28	+6	31

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Tianjin Teda

5-3-2

25 Yan Bingliang

29 Dun Ba

11 Xie Weijun

18 Aitor Córdoba

6 Xianjun Wang

31 Ming-Him Sun

10 Cristian Salvador

14 Jiahui Huang

8 Bruno Xadas

7 Guilherme Schettine

9 Alberto Quiles

Coach · –

Substitutes

21 · Qi Yuxi

16 · Shuai Liu

38 · Shuaiqi Li

3 · Zhenghao Wang

17 · Xinghan Wu

24 · Chen Zhexuan

22 · Li Yongjia

40 · Shi Yan

30 · Qiuming Wang

28 · Hao Guo

20 · Shengpan Ji

19 · Junxian Liu

SHANGHAI SIPG

4-4-2

1 Yan Junling

22 Xi Yang

40 Yusup Umidjan

13 Zhen Wei

28 Yue Xin

21 Óscar Melendo

10 Mateus Vital

8 Jean Claude Aziangbe

33 Liu Zhurun

17 Prince Ampem

45 Leonardo

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · Chen Wei

19 · Wang Zhenao

32 · Shuai Li

23 · Fu Huan

4 · Wang Shenchao

3 · Guangtai Jiang

6 · Yuan Zhang

38 · Lu Yongtao

47 · Kuai Jiwen

20 · Yang Shiyuan

49 · Xinxiang Li

7 · Wu Lei

Our number · shanghai sipg winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 07:37 · locked at kick-off

40% The market37%

Us40%

~~Market~~37%

We make SHANGHAI SIPG a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tianjin Teda v SHANGHAI SIPG~~1.28 – 1.42

~~Form · last six in Super League this season · since 19 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 31 v 39~~10 v 5

~~The market · SHANGHAI SIPG win~~37% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · SHANGHAI SIPG win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tianjin Teda win	34%	35%	−1
Draw	27%	27%	0
SHANGHAI SIPG win	40%	37%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	50%	54%	−4
Both teams to score	54%	58%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	75%	77%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	29%	34%	−5
Tianjin Teda or draw	60%	63%	−3
Tianjin Teda clean sheet	25%	–	–
SHANGHAI SIPG clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 7.8 9.0 6.7 3.2 1 8.1 12.6 8.4 4.0 2 5.6 7.6 5.3 2.6 3 2.4 3.3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tianjin Teda down, SHANGHAI SIPG across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,428 Super League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.0% of games this season, across 224 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tianjin Teda at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). SHANGHAI SIPG away: 2.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Tianjin Teda, 1.42 for SHANGHAI SIPG. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 08:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SHA 1–1 TIA · SHA 1–1 TIA · TIA 1–4 SHA · SHA 5–0 TIA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League this season · since 19 Aug

TIANJIN TEDA

DDWWWW0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

SHANGHAI SIPG

DWWDWW1–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 4–2 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chengdu Better City	28	+17	52
2	Dalian Zhixing	28	+2	46
3	Beijing Guoan	28	+20	44
4	Shandong Luneng	28	+8	41
5	SHANGHAI SIPG	28	+12	39
6	Yunnan Yukun	28	−3	39
7	Qingdao Youth Island	28	−6	38
8	Shanghai Shenhua	28	+14	37
9	Chongqing Tongliang Long	28	−5	33
10	Tianjin Teda	28	+6	31
11	Hangzhou Greentown	28	−5	31
12	Sichuan Jiuniu	28	−13	29
13	Shenyang Urban	28	−9	29
14	Henan Jianye	28	−3	28
15	Wuhan Three Towns	28	−9	22
16	Qingdao Jonoon	28	−26	14