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Sichuan Jiuniu v Henan Jianye

Sichuan Jiuniu

2–2Full time

Henan Jianye

Super League · FRI 9 OCT · Shenzhen Stadium

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 15:20

Sichuan Jiuniu 2–2 Henan Jianye HENAN JIANYE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Henan Jianye win~~38%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.797

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.813

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Sichuan Jiuniu win35%

Draw27%

Henan Jianye win38%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 12:35

Venue · Shenzhen Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Sichuan Jiuniu

4-1-4-1

13 Peng Peng

16 Tang Miao

15 Yu Rui

3 Gabriel Xavier

20 Z. Xuan

6 Yao Junsheng

31 D. Owusu-Sekyere

8 T. Chow

36 E. Kartsev

11 A. Ademi

7 Wesley Moraes

Coach · Robbie Neilson

Substitutes

35 · Wei Minzhe

1 · J. Ji

2 · Tian Yifan

25 · Zhao Jianfei

46 · H. Shen

14 · Li Long

10 · Dai Wai-Tsun

17 · Li Ning

19 · Zhang Yufeng

39 · Yu Menghui

29 · Xia Dalong

54 · J. Yao

Henan Jianye

4-2-3-1

33 Shi Chenglong

4 Shinar Yeljan

2 Iago Maidana

23 Lucas Maia

11 N. Muhmet

15 Haliq Ablahan

6 Wang Shangyuan

29 Zheng Dalun

10 Bruno Nazario

8 Pedro Maranhao

9 Gustavo

Coach · Daniel Ramos

Substitutes

18 · Wang Guoming

17 · Wang Jinshuai

5 · Liu Jiahui

27 · Liu Yixin

3 · O. Gerbig

24 · Yin Congyao

25 · Yang Yilin

16 · Yang Kuo

13 · A. Abudulam

30 · Fan Xulin

28 · Du Changjie

7 · Zhong Yihao

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Sichuan Jiuniu

4-1-4-1

13 Peng Peng

16 Tang Miao

15 Yu Rui

3 Gabriel Xavier

20 Z. Xuan

6 Yao Junsheng

31 D. Owusu-Sekyere

8 T. Chow

36 E. Kartsev

11 A. Ademi

7 Wesley Moraes

Coach · Robbie Neilson

Substitutes

35 · Wei Minzhe

1 · J. Ji

2 · Tian Yifan

25 · Zhao Jianfei

46 · H. Shen

14 · Li Long

10 · Dai Wai-Tsun

17 · Li Ning

19 · Zhang Yufeng

39 · Yu Menghui

29 · Xia Dalong

54 · J. Yao

Henan Jianye

4-2-3-1

33 Shi Chenglong

4 Shinar Yeljan

2 Iago Maidana

23 Lucas Maia

11 N. Muhmet

15 Haliq Ablahan

6 Wang Shangyuan

29 Zheng Dalun

10 Bruno Nazario

8 Pedro Maranhao

9 Gustavo

Coach · Daniel Ramos

Substitutes

18 · Wang Guoming

17 · Wang Jinshuai

5 · Liu Jiahui

27 · Liu Yixin

3 · O. Gerbig

24 · Yin Congyao

25 · Yang Yilin

16 · Yang Kuo

13 · A. Abudulam

30 · Fan Xulin

28 · Du Changjie

7 · Zhong Yihao

Our number · henan jianye winPublished 9 Oct 12:32

38% The market40%

Us38%

~~Market~~40%

We make Henan Jianye a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · henan jianye win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 41% to 40% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sichuan Jiuniu win	35%	34%	+1
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Henan Jianye win	38%	40%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	50%	59%	−9
Both teams to score	54%	63%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	75%	80%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	29%	39%	−10
Sichuan Jiuniu or draw	62%	60%	+2
Sichuan Jiuniu clean sheet	26%	–	–
Henan Jianye clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 7.9 8.7 6.5 3.0 1 8.2 12.7 8.2 3.8 2 5.8 7.8 5.3 2.5 3 2.6 3.5 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sichuan Jiuniu down, Henan Jianye across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,412 Super League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.7% of games this season, across 208 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.40 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sichuan Jiuniu at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Henan Jianye away: 1.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Sichuan Jiuniu, 1.38 for Henan Jianye. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 12:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~HEN 1–0 SIC · HEN 4–1 SIC · SIC 1–3 HEN · SIC 0–0 HEN

Form · last six in Super League

SICHUAN JIUNIU

WLWDLD2–0 · 0–4 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1

HENAN JIANYE

DLDDDD0–0 · 1–4 · 4–4 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chengdu Better City	26	+21	52
2	Beijing Guoan	26	+16	43
3	Shandong Luneng	26	+3	43
4	Shanghai Shenhua	26	+6	41
5	Dalian Zhixing	26	−4	40
6	SHANGHAI SIPG	26	+7	38
7	Yunnan Yukun	26	+3	38
8	Qingdao Youth Island	26	−1	38
9	Hangzhou Greentown	26	+2	36
10	Tianjin Teda	26	+4	35
11	Henan Jianye	26	−2	33
12	Chongqing Tongliang Long	26	−5	31
13	Sichuan Jiuniu	26	−11	28
14	Wuhan Three Towns	26	−7	26
15	Shenyang Urban	26	−13	25
16	Qingdao Jonoon	26	−19	21