Shenyang Urban v Wuhan Three Towns prediction · Super League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:05

Shenyang Urban 1–1 Wuhan Three Towns SHENYANG URBAN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Shenyang Urban win~~45%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.879

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.854

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Shenyang Urban win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Shenyang Urban was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–23–31
1′KICK-OFF Shenyang Urban v Wuhan Three Towns
3′Much as we predicted: Shenyang Urban was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–23–31
21′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Li Haoran · Shenyang Urban
29′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Jeffinho · Shenyang Urban
30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Ming Tian · Wuhan Three Towns
39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' J. Cadiz · Wuhan Three Towns
43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' A. Kouame · Shenyang Urban
45′HALF-TIME Shenyang Urban 0–0 Wuhan Three Towns
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Shenyang Urban · On: H. Zhang · Off: Li Haoran Corrected
46′SECOND HALF Shenyang Urban 0–0 Wuhan Three Towns
62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' J. Xiong · Wuhan Three Towns
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Yuan Mincheng · Shenyang Urban
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Shenyang Urban · On: G. Mbenza · Off: Felipe Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Wuhan Three Towns · On: A. Leautey · Off: Wang Jinxian Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Wuhan Three Towns · On: Long Wei · Off: J. Xiong Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Wuhan Three Towns · On: Liao Chengjian · Off: Zhang Xiaobin Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Shenyang Urban · On: Gao Jiarun · Off: D. Mawlanniyaz Corrected
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Adriano Firmino · Wuhan Three Towns
86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Shenyang Urban 1–0 Wuhan Three Towns · Chen Binbin
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Shenyang Urban 1–1 Wuhan Three Towns · A. Leautey
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Wuhan Three Towns · On: Li Shenyuan · Off: Ming Tian Corrected
FTFULL TIME Shenyang Urban 1–1 Wuhan Three Towns
FTShenyang Urban 1–1 Wuhan Three Towns · Shenyang Urban win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Shenyang Urban win45%

Draw24%

Wuhan Three Towns win31%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:35

VenueOlympic Sports Centre Stadium

Line-ups

Shenyang Urban

3-1-4-2

Wuhan Three Towns

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Shenyang Urban

Wuhan Three Towns

29Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Wuhan Three Towns	26	−7	26
15	Shenyang Urban	26	−13	25

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Shenyang Urban

3-1-4-2

29 Zhang Yan

3 Pan Ximing

26 Yuan Mincheng

35 Li Haoran

18 Li Tixiang

5 D. Mawlanniyaz

10 T. Kunimoto

15 Felipe

11 Chen Binbin

7 A. Kouame

47 Jeffinho

Coach · Sasa Kolic

Substitutes

16 · T. Wang

28 · Xu Dong

27 · Gao Jiarun

33 · Tian Yinong

36 · Tian Deao

30 · Pang Shenghan

34 · H. Zhang

19 · Wu Mingyu

8 · Yan Dinghao

17 · Tian Yuda

9 · G. Mbenza

Wuhan Three Towns

4-4-2

31 Guo Jiayu

23 Ming Tian

2 He Guan

13 Zheng Kaimu

4 Xu Haofeng

8 Wang Jinxian

18 Zhang Xiaobin

20 Adriano Firmino

10 K. Bevis

21 J. Xiong

29 J. Cadiz

Coach · Ricardo Soares

Substitutes

22 · Fang Jingqi

28 · Wang Denny

19 · Liu Yiming

5 · Li Shenyuan

33 · Liu Binbin

12 · Liao Chengjian

30 · Zhong Jinbao

15 · Chen Zhechao

16 · Min Zixi

6 · Long Wei

50 · A. Leautey

9 · Zheng Haoqian

Our number · shenyang urban winPublished 11 Oct 12:33

45% The market42%

Us45%

~~Market~~42%

We make Shenyang Urban a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · shenyang urban win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 40% to 42% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shenyang Urban win	45%	42%	+3
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Wuhan Three Towns win	31%	33%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	62%	63%	−2
Both teams to score	63%	65%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	83%	83%	0
Over 3.5 goals	40%	43%	−3
Shenyang Urban or draw	69%	67%	+2
Shenyang Urban clean sheet	25%	–	–
Wuhan Three Towns clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 4.9 5.3 4.2 2.0 1 6.8 10.6 7.1 3.4 2 6.4 8.8 6.2 3.0 3 3.8 5.3 3.7 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Shenyang Urban down, Wuhan Three Towns across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,417 Super League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.2% of games this season, across 213 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Shenyang Urban at home: 2.00 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Wuhan Three Towns away: 2.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.78 goals for Shenyang Urban, 1.43 for Wuhan Three Towns. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 12:29. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~WUH 2–2 SHE

Form · last six in Super League

SHENYANG URBAN

LLDLLL0–1 · 1–2 · 4–4 · 1–2 · 0–5 · 0–1

WUHAN THREE TOWNS

LDWDDL2–3 · 0–0 · 5–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chengdu Better City	27	+20	52
2	Beijing Guoan	27	+19	46
3	Shanghai Shenhua	27	+12	44
4	Shandong Luneng	26	+3	43
5	SHANGHAI SIPG	27	+9	41
6	Dalian Zhixing	26	−4	40
7	Tianjin Teda	27	+5	38
8	Qingdao Youth Island	26	−1	38
9	Yunnan Yukun	27	−3	38
10	Hangzhou Greentown	27	0	36
11	Henan Jianye	27	−2	34
12	Chongqing Tongliang Long	26	−5	31
13	Sichuan Jiuniu	27	−11	29
14	Wuhan Three Towns	26	−7	26
15	Shenyang Urban	26	−13	25
16	Qingdao Jonoon	27	−22	21