SHANGHAI SIPG v Chengdu Better City prediction · Super League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

SHANGHAI SIPG 3–0 Chengdu Better City SHANGHAI SIPG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SHANGHAI SIPG win~~44%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.471

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.429

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said SHANGHAI SIPG win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: SHANGHAI SIPG was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–25–31
1′KICK-OFF SHANGHAI SIPG v Chengdu Better City
13′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Zhang Linpeng · SHANGHAI SIPG
45′HALF-TIME SHANGHAI SIPG 0–0 Chengdu Better City
46′SECOND HALF SHANGHAI SIPG 0–0 Chengdu Better City
49′9 shots for SHANGHAI SIPG, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 35–39–26
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' SHANGHAI SIPG win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was SHANGHAI SIPG win 34%)
54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' O. Melendo · SHANGHAI SIPG
55′We said SHANGHAI SIPG at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 32–43–25
55′We expected about 3.0 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 32–43–25
56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Browning Tyias · SHANGHAI SIPG
58′An own goal by Chengdu Better City's Wang Dongsheng on 57′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–19–5
58′We published SHANGHAI SIPG at 44%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–19–5
58′⚽ GOAL · 57' SHANGHAI SIPG 1–0 Chengdu Better City · Wang Dongsheng (own goal)
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' SHANGHAI SIPG win: 44% at kick-off, 76% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' SHANGHAI SIPG win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 19%)
60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Matheus Jussa · Chengdu Better City
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Chengdu Better City · On: Romulo · Off: Wang Dongsheng
67′We published SHANGHAI SIPG at 44%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' SHANGHAI SIPG win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
76′We published SHANGHAI SIPG at 44%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Chengdu Better City · On: Liao Rongxiang · Off: Y. Dong
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Chengdu Better City · On: Wellington Silva · Off: Abduweli Behram
82′We published SHANGHAI SIPG at 44%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Chengdu Better City · On: Liao Lisheng · Off: Matheus Jussa
83′83′: Leonardo on the scoresheet for SHANGHAI SIPG, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Chengdu Better City · On: Shuai Weihao · Off: Felipe Silva
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' SHANGHAI SIPG 2–0 Chengdu Better City · Leonardo
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' SHANGHAI SIPG win: 44% at kick-off, over 99% now
84′We published SHANGHAI SIPG at 44%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' SHANGHAI SIPG · On: X. Li · Off: Liu Zhurun
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' SHANGHAI SIPG · On: Wu Lei · Off: Leonardo
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Yan Junling · SHANGHAI SIPG
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' SHANGHAI SIPG · On: Wang Shenchao · Off: Browning Tyias
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' SHANGHAI SIPG · On: Yue Xin · Off: Li Shuai
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' SHANGHAI SIPG · On: Zhang Yuan · Off: O. Melendo
94′SHANGHAI SIPG ahead on 90′ through Wu Lei. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' X. Li · SHANGHAI SIPG
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' SHANGHAI SIPG 3–0 Chengdu Better City · Wu Lei
95′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME SHANGHAI SIPG 3–0 Chengdu Better City
FTSHANGHAI SIPG 3–0 Chengdu Better City · SHANGHAI SIPG win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SHANGHAI SIPG are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SHANGHAI SIPG 44%, draw 25%, Chengdu Better City 31%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on SHANGHAI SIPG v Chengdu Better CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

SHANGHAI SIPG win44%

Draw25%

Chengdu Better City win31%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 28

VenuePudong Football Stadium

Line-ups

SHANGHAI SIPG

3-4-3

Chengdu Better City

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SHANGHAI SIPG

Chengdu Better City

5Days since last match8

Last match: 13 Oct · AFC Champions League Elite

Last match: 10 Oct · the Chinese Super League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

SHANGHAI SIPG

3-4-3

1 Yan Junling

13 Wei Zhen

3 Browning Tyias

40 Yusup Umidjan

8 Jean Claude

21 O. Melendo

10 Mateus Vital

32 Li Shuai

33 Liu Zhurun

45 Leonardo

17 P. O. Ampem

Coach · Kevin Muscat

Substitutes

12 · Chen Wei

4 · Wang Shenchao

28 · Yue Xin

31 · Bao Shimeng

5 · Zhang Linpeng

6 · Zhang Yuan

20 · Yang Shiyuan

47 · Kuai Jiwen

7 · Wu Lei

14 · M. Orr

49 · X. Li

38 · Lu Yongtao

Chengdu Better City

4-4-2

32 Liu Dianzuo

17 Wang Dongsheng

19 Y. Dong

28 E. Sorokin

4 He Yiran

27 Abduweli Behram

16 Yang Ming-Yang

5 Matheus Jussa

2 H. Hu

9 Felipe Silva

20 Wang Ziming

Coach · John Aloisi

Substitutes

1 · Jian Tao

15 · Ran Weifeng

22 · Y. Li

25 · Muzepper Murahmetjan

23 · Liao Lisheng

6 · Feng Zhuoyi

10 · Romulo

39 · Gan Chao

29 · M. Iminqari

11 · Wellington Silva

58 · Liao Rongxiang

52 · Shuai Weihao

Our number · shanghai sipg winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market47%

Us44%

~~Market~~47%

We make SHANGHAI SIPG a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SHANGHAI SIPG v Chengdu Better City~~1.66 – 1.36

~~Form · last six in Super League this season · since 8 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 36 v 52~~7 v 1

~~The market · SHANGHAI SIPG win~~47% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · SHANGHAI SIPG win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SHANGHAI SIPG win	44%	47%	−3
Draw	25%	24%	+1
Chengdu Better City win	31%	29%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	58%	64%	−6
Both teams to score	60%	65%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	80%	83%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	36%	43%	−7
SHANGHAI SIPG or draw	69%	71%	−2
SHANGHAI SIPG clean sheet	26%	–	–
Chengdu Better City clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 5.9 6.1 4.6 2.1 1 7.6 11.4 7.3 3.3 2 6.7 8.8 5.9 2.7 3 3.8 4.9 3.3 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SHANGHAI SIPG down, Chengdu Better City across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,425 Super League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.9% of games this season, across 221 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Chengdu Better City away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for SHANGHAI SIPG, 1.36 for Chengdu Better City. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 12:35. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CHE 0–1 SHA · CHE 4–1 SHA · SHA 1–3 CHE · CHE 3–1 SHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League this season · since 8 Aug

SHANGHAI SIPG

WDWWDW3–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 4–2

CHENGDU BETTER CITY

LWLWDL0–1 · 3–2 · 4–5 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chengdu Better City	27	+20	52
2	Dalian Zhixing	28	+2	46
3	Beijing Guoan	27	+19	41
4	Shandong Luneng	28	+8	41
5	Yunnan Yukun	28	−3	39
6	Qingdao Youth Island	27	−5	38
7	SHANGHAI SIPG	27	+9	36
8	Shanghai Shenhua	27	+12	34
9	Chongqing Tongliang Long	28	−5	33
10	Tianjin Teda	28	+6	31
11	Hangzhou Greentown	28	−5	31
12	Sichuan Jiuniu	28	−13	29
13	Shenyang Urban	28	−9	29
14	Henan Jianye	28	−3	28
15	Wuhan Three Towns	27	−7	22
16	Qingdao Jonoon	28	−26	14