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Shanghai Shenhua v Yunnan Yukun

Shanghai Shenhua
7–1Full time
Yunnan Yukun

Super League · SAT 10 OCT · Shanghai Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:10
Shanghai Shenhua 7–1 Yunnan Yukun SHANGHAI SHENHUA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Shanghai Shenhua win59%
The market said60%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.248
The market’s Brier score0.242

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 35 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Shanghai Shenhua win at 59%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Shanghai Shenhua was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–18–22
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Shanghai Shenhua v Yunnan Yukun
  4. 11′⚽ GOAL · 12' Shanghai Shenhua 0–0 Yunnan Yukun · Rafael Ratao
  5. 12′Rafael Ratao scores for Shanghai Shenhua on 12′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–13–10
  6. 12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Shanghai Shenhua 1–0 Yunnan Yukun · Rafael Ratao
  7. 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Shanghai Shenhua win: 59% at kick-off, 77% now
  8. 16′We published Shanghai Shenhua at 59%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–13–9
  9. 30′⚽ GOAL · 31' Shanghai Shenhua 1–0 Yunnan Yukun · Cleber (assist O. Taty Maritu)
  10. 32′31′ and it is 1–1: Cleber on the scoresheet for Yunnan Yukun. 1–1 · 53–24–23
  11. 32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Shanghai Shenhua 1–1 Yunnan Yukun · Cleber
  12. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Shanghai Shenhua win: 59% at kick-off, 53% now
  13. 34′Goals are coming at about the 4.3 we expected. 1–1 · 53–24–23
  14. 36′⚽ GOAL · 38' Shanghai Shenhua 1–1 Yunnan Yukun · Rafael Ratao
  15. 39′13.0 shots for Shanghai Shenhua, 5.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 51–26–23
  16. 42′⚽ GOAL · 43' Shanghai Shenhua 1–1 Yunnan Yukun · Xie Pengfei
  17. 43′Shanghai Shenhua ahead on 43′ through Xie Pengfei. 2–1. 2–1 · 77–15–7
  18. 43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Shanghai Shenhua 2–1 Yunnan Yukun · Xie Pengfei
  19. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Shanghai Shenhua win: 59% at kick-off, 77% now
  20. 45′SECOND HALF Shanghai Shenhua 2–1 Yunnan Yukun
  21. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Yunnan Yukun · On: Abdusalam Bunyamin · Off: Duan Liuyu
  22. 52′⚽ GOAL · 53' Shanghai Shenhua 2–1 Yunnan Yukun · Jin Shunkai
  23. 53′Jin Shunkai scores for Shanghai Shenhua on 53′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 94–5–1
  24. 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Shanghai Shenhua 3–1 Yunnan Yukun · Jin Shunkai
  25. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Shanghai Shenhua win: 59% at kick-off, 94% now
  26. 56′We published Shanghai Shenhua at 59%. Our model now makes it 94%. 3–1 · 94–5–1
  27. 56′⚽ GOAL · 57' Shanghai Shenhua 3–1 Yunnan Yukun · Rafael Ratao
  28. 57′57′ and it is 4–1: Rafael Ratao on the scoresheet for Shanghai Shenhua. 4–1 · 99–1–0
  29. 57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Shanghai Shenhua 4–1 Yunnan Yukun · Rafael Ratao
  30. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Shanghai Shenhua win: 59% at kick-off, 99% now
  31. 58′We published Shanghai Shenhua at 59%. Our model now makes it 99%. 4–1 · 99–1–0
  32. 59′That is 5, and we only asked for 4.3 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 99–1–0
  33. 60′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Tsui Wang-Kit · Yunnan Yukun
  34. 61′Shanghai Shenhua ahead on 62′ through Wang Haijian. 4–1. 4–1 · 99–1–0
  35. 61′⚽ GOAL · 62' Shanghai Shenhua 4–1 Yunnan Yukun · Wang Haijian
  36. 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Shanghai Shenhua 5–1 Yunnan Yukun · Wang Haijian
  37. 63′We published Shanghai Shenhua at 59%. Our model now makes it 100%. 5–1 · 100–0–0
  38. 69′6 goals already, more than the 4.3 we expected for the whole match. 5–1 · 100–0–0
  39. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Yunnan Yukun · On: Huang Zichang · Off: Deng Hanwen
  40. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Shanghai Shenhua · On: Gao Tianyi · Off: J. Teixeira
  41. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Shanghai Shenhua · On: Xu Haoyang · Off: Xie Pengfei
  42. 74′Rafael Ratao scores for Shanghai Shenhua on 75′ — 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
  43. 74′⚽ GOAL · 76' Shanghai Shenhua 5–1 Yunnan Yukun · Rafael Ratao
  44. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Yunnan Yukun · On: Zhao Yuhao · Off: O. Taty Maritu
  45. 76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Shanghai Shenhua 6–1 Yunnan Yukun · Rafael Ratao
  46. 77′That is 7, and we only asked for 4.3 across ninety minutes. 6–1 · 100–0–0
  47. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Yunnan Yukun · On: Ye Chugui · Off: A. Ionita II Corrected
  48. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Yunnan Yukun · On: Zhao Yuhao · Off: O. Taty Maritu
  49. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Shanghai Shenhua · On: Han Jiawen · Off: Rafael Ratao
  50. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Shanghai Shenhua · On: Liu Chengyu · Off: L. Asue
  51. 81′81′ and it is 7–1: Liu Chengyu on the scoresheet for Shanghai Shenhua. 7–1 · 100–0–0
  52. 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Shanghai Shenhua 7–1 Yunnan Yukun · Liu Chengyu (assist Xu Haoyang)
  53. 83′8 goals already, more than the 4.3 we expected for the whole match. 7–1 · 100–0–0
  54. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Shanghai Shenhua · On: Yang Zexiang · Off: Wu Xi
  55. FTFULL TIME Shanghai Shenhua 7–1 Yunnan Yukun
  56. FTShanghai Shenhua 7–1 Yunnan Yukun · Shanghai Shenhua win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Shanghai Shenhua win59%
Draw18%
Yunnan Yukun win22%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:35

Venue · Shanghai Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Shanghai Shenhua

4-4-2

1 Xue Qinghao

13 W. Manafa

3 Jin Shunkai

5 Zhu Chenjie

27 Chan Shinichi

19 L. Asue

33 Wang Haijian

15 Wu Xi

30 Xie Pengfei

10 J. Teixeira

9 Rafael Ratao

Coach · Vladan Milojevic

Substitutes

24 · Ma Zhen

40 · J. Wang

16 · Yang Zexiang

26 · Yang Shuai

25 · Zhu Yue

2 · Wang Shilong

38 · Wu Qipeng

17 · Gao Tianyi

21 · Xu Haoyang

45 · Han Jiawen

43 · Yang Haoyu

18 · Liu Chengyu

Yunnan Yukun

4-3-3

23 Wang Zhifeng

25 Deng Hanwen

33 A. Burca

2 Hu Ruibao

3 Tsui Wang-Kit

22 Duan Liuyu

8 Xu Xin

34 Caio Vinicius

10 A. Ionita II

9 Cleber

11 O. Taty Maritu

Coach · Jordi Vinyals

Substitutes

1 · Bao Yaxiong

14 · Wang Xinghao

5 · Shi Ke

27 · Han Zilong

16 · Zhang Xiangshuo

21 · Yang Zihao

6 · Zhao Yuhao

30 · J. Saeter

39 · Abdusalam Bunyamin

7 · Ye Chugui

19 · Huang Zichang

36 · Fei Ernanduo

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Shanghai Shenhua

4-4-2

1 Xue Qinghao

13 W. Manafa

3 Jin Shunkai

5 Zhu Chenjie

27 Chan Shinichi

19 L. Asue

33 Wang Haijian

15 Wu Xi

30 Xie Pengfei

10 J. Teixeira

9 Rafael Ratao

Coach · Vladan Milojevic

Substitutes

24 · Ma Zhen

40 · J. Wang

16 · Yang Zexiang

26 · Yang Shuai

25 · Zhu Yue

2 · Wang Shilong

38 · Wu Qipeng

17 · Gao Tianyi

21 · Xu Haoyang

45 · Han Jiawen

43 · Yang Haoyu

18 · Liu Chengyu

Yunnan Yukun

4-3-3

23 Wang Zhifeng

25 Deng Hanwen

33 A. Burca

2 Hu Ruibao

3 Tsui Wang-Kit

22 Duan Liuyu

8 Xu Xin

34 Caio Vinicius

10 A. Ionita II

9 Cleber

11 O. Taty Maritu

Coach · Jordi Vinyals

Substitutes

1 · Bao Yaxiong

14 · Wang Xinghao

5 · Shi Ke

27 · Han Zilong

16 · Zhang Xiangshuo

21 · Yang Zihao

6 · Zhao Yuhao

30 · J. Saeter

39 · Abdusalam Bunyamin

7 · Ye Chugui

19 · Huang Zichang

36 · Fei Ernanduo

Our number · shanghai shenhua winPublished 10 Oct 12:19
59% The market60%
Us59%
Market60%

We make Shanghai Shenhua a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 2.7–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65% 9 OCT 06:1810 OCT 10:12
Our probability · shanghai shenhua win The market, margin stripped

Published at 60%, 59% now. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Shanghai Shenhua win59%60%0
Draw18%19%−1
Yunnan Yukun win22%21%+1
Over 2.5 goals79%78%0
Both teams to score73%73%0
Over 1.5 goals92%91%+1
Over 3.5 goals61%61%0
Shanghai Shenhua or draw78%79%−1
Shanghai Shenhua clean sheet21%––
Yunnan Yukun clean sheet8%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.7%
0123450 2.1 2.1 1 3.7 6.5 4.7 2.5 2 5.2 7.7 6.0 3.2 3 4.4 6.7 5.2 2.8 4 2.9 4.4 3.5 5 2.4
under 2% 5% 12%+Shanghai Shenhua down, Yunnan Yukun across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025
Goals a meeting4.33
Over 2.52 of 3
Both scored2 of 3
Last meetingsYUN 1–0 SHA · YUN 4–4 SHA · SHA 3–1 YUN

Form · last six in Super League

SHANGHAI SHENHUA

WWLWLW1–0 · 4–1 · 0–3 · 5–4 · 2–3 · 3–1

YUNNAN YUKUN

LWWDLW2–3 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 3–3 · 0–6 · 5–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Chengdu Better City26+2152
2Beijing Guoan27+1946
3Shandong Luneng26+343
4SHANGHAI SIPG27+941
5Shanghai Shenhua26+641
6Dalian Zhixing26−440
7Yunnan Yukun26+338
8Qingdao Youth Island26−138
9Hangzhou Greentown27036
10Tianjin Teda26+435
11Henan Jianye27−234
12Chongqing Tongliang Long26−531
13Sichuan Jiuniu27−1129
14Wuhan Three Towns26−726
15Shenyang Urban26−1325
16Qingdao Jonoon27−2221

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.