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Shandong Luneng v Hangzhou Greentown

Shandong Luneng

5–0Full time

Hangzhou Greentown

Super League · SAT 17 OCT · Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Shandong Luneng 5–0 Hangzhou Greentown SHANDONG LUNENG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Shandong Luneng win~~54%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.319

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.289

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Shandong Luneng win at 54%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Shandong Luneng 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–20–26
1′KICK-OFF Shandong Luneng v Hangzhou Greentown
17′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Xu Junchi · Hangzhou Greentown
18′Hangzhou Greentown are down to ten from 17′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 51–23–26
18′🟥 RED CARD · 17' Xu Junchi · Hangzhou Greentown
20′Guilherme Madruga scores for Shandong Luneng on 21′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–15–11
20′⚽ GOAL · 21' Shandong Luneng 1–0 Hangzhou Greentown · Guilherme Madruga
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Shandong Luneng win: 54% at kick-off, 74% now
21′Guilherme Madruga scores for Shandong Luneng on 20′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–15–11
21′We said Shandong Luneng at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–15–11
23′SUBSTITUTION · 23' Hangzhou Greentown · On: Tong Lei · Off: M. Tolic
30′The goal count is tracking the 4.0 we expected. 1–0 · 74–16–10
34′33′: Y. Li on the scoresheet for Shandong Luneng, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 90–7–3
34′We said Shandong Luneng at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–0 · 90–7–3
34′⚽ GOAL · 33' Shandong Luneng 2–0 Hangzhou Greentown · Y. Li (assist Xie Wenneng)
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Shandong Luneng win: 54% at kick-off, 90% now
35′GOAL DISALLOWED · 33' Y. Li · Shandong Luneng
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Shandong Luneng win: 54% at kick-off, 74% now
38′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Mijit Mewlan · Shandong Luneng
41′40′: Xie Wenneng on the scoresheet for Shandong Luneng, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 91–6–2
41′⚽ GOAL · 40' Shandong Luneng 2–0 Hangzhou Greentown · Xie Wenneng
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Shandong Luneng win: 54% at kick-off, 91% now
45′HALF-TIME Shandong Luneng 3–0 Hangzhou Greentown
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Hangzhou Greentown · On: Cheng Jin · Off: Wu Wei
47′SECOND HALF Shandong Luneng 3–0 Hangzhou Greentown
50′Shandong Luneng ahead on 45′ through V. Qazaishvili. 3–0. 3–0 · 98–1–0
50′⚽ GOAL · 45+5' Shandong Luneng 3–0 Hangzhou Greentown · V. Qazaishvili
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+5' Shandong Luneng win: 54% at kick-off, 98% now
51′We said Shandong Luneng at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 3–0 · 98–1–0
54′Y. Wang scores for Hangzhou Greentown on 53′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 93–5–1
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Shandong Luneng 3–1 Hangzhou Greentown · Y. Wang
57′GOAL DISALLOWED · 53' Y. Wang · Hangzhou Greentown
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Shandong Luneng · On: Memet Imran · Off: Y. Li
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Shandong Luneng · On: Chen Pu · Off: Mijit Mewlan
65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Huang Zhengyu · Shandong Luneng
69′We said Shandong Luneng at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Hangzhou Greentown · On: Wang Shiqin · Off: Sun Guowen
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Shandong Luneng · On: Shi Songchen · Off: Xie Wenneng
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Shandong Luneng · On: Chen Zeshi · Off: Huang Zhengyu
79′V. Qazaishvili scores for Shandong Luneng on 79′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Shandong Luneng 4–0 Hangzhou Greentown · V. Qazaishvili
84′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Liu Haofan · Hangzhou Greentown
84′PENALTY MISSED · 83' Cryzan · Shandong Luneng
89′A second red card for Hangzhou Greentown on 88′ — they are down to nine. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 4–0 · 100–0–0
89′🟥 RED CARD · 88' Cheng Jin · Hangzhou Greentown
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Shandong Luneng · On: Yin Jiaxi · Off: Peng Xiao
92′90′: Cryzan on the scoresheet for Shandong Luneng, making it 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
92′5 goals already, more than the 4.0 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Shandong Luneng 5–0 Hangzhou Greentown · Cryzan
FTFULL TIME Shandong Luneng 5–0 Hangzhou Greentown
FTShandong Luneng 5–0 Hangzhou Greentown · Shandong Luneng win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Shandong Luneng are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Shandong Luneng 54%, draw 20%, Hangzhou Greentown 26%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 72%.

The AI’s read on Shandong Luneng v Hangzhou GreentownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Shandong Luneng win54%

Draw20%

Hangzhou Greentown win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 28

VenueJinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium

Line-ups

Shandong Luneng

3-4-3

Hangzhou Greentown

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Shandong Luneng

Hangzhou Greentown

6Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · the Chinese Super League

Last match: 9 Oct · the Chinese Super League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Shandong Luneng	27	+3	38
11	Hangzhou Greentown	27	0	31

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Shandong Luneng

3-4-3

14 Wang Dalei

8 Guilherme Madruga

3 Peng Xiao

23 P. Alvaro

28 Mijit Mewlan

22 Y. Li

35 Huang Zhengyu

11 Liu Yang

7 Xie Wenneng

9 Cryzan

10 V. Qazaishvili

Coach · Tian Tang

Substitutes

32 · Sun Qihang

1 · Yu Jinyong

36 · Liu Qiwei

5 · Zheng Zheng

15 · Shi Songchen

29 · Chen Pu

37 · Chen Zeshi

38 · Memet Imran

34 · Yin Jiaxi

41 · J. Lu

Hangzhou Greentown

4-2-3-1

33 Zhao Bo

25 Xu Junchi

5 Liu Haofan

36 L. Possignolo

26 Sun Guowen

14 Wu Wei

4 Park Jin-Seob

7 Tao Qianglong

10 M. Tolic

28 A. Mitrita

11 Y. Wang

Coach · Ross Aloisi

Substitutes

1 · Dong Chunyu

3 · Wang Yang

16 · Tong Lei

17 · Wang Shiqin

38 · A. Zhang

8 · A. N'Doumbou

29 · Zhang Jiaqi

6 · Bao Shengxin

22 · Cheng Jin

9 · Gao Di

18 · Fang Hao

27 · Felippe Cardoso

Our number · shandong luneng winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:33 · locked at kick-off

54% The market56%

Us54%

~~Market~~56%

We make Shandong Luneng a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.4–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Shandong Luneng v Hangzhou Greentown~~2.40 – 1.64

~~Form · last six in Super League this season · since 9 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 38 v 31~~4 v 11

~~The market · Shandong Luneng win~~56% · ours 54%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Shandong Luneng win The market, margin stripped

Published at 55%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shandong Luneng win	54%	56%	−2
Draw	20%	20%	0
Hangzhou Greentown win	26%	23%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	76%	75%	+1
Both teams to score	72%	72%	0
Over 1.5 goals	91%	89%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	57%	57%	0
Shandong Luneng or draw	74%	77%	−3
Shandong Luneng clean sheet	20%	–	–
Hangzhou Greentown clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.1%

0123450 2.4 2.7 2.5 1 4.1 7.4 5.6 3.1 2 5.2 8.1 6.5 3.5 3 4.1 6.4 5.1 2.8 4 2.5 3.8 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Shandong Luneng down, Hangzhou Greentown across0–5 goals a side shown (95.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,421 Super League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 217 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.60 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Shandong Luneng at home: 2.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.40 goals for Shandong Luneng, 1.64 for Hangzhou Greentown. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.60

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HAN 4–1 SHA · HAN 2–2 SHA · SHA 4–2 HAN · HAN 3–3 SHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League this season · since 9 Aug

SHANDONG LUNENG

WWLWDD2–1 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

HANGZHOU GREENTOWN

LDWLWL2–3 · 1–1 · 6–0 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 2–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chengdu Better City	27	+20	52
2	Dalian Zhixing	27	0	43
3	Beijing Guoan	27	+19	41
4	Shandong Luneng	27	+3	38
5	Yunnan Yukun	27	−3	38
6	Qingdao Youth Island	27	−5	38
7	SHANGHAI SIPG	27	+9	36
8	Shanghai Shenhua	27	+12	34
9	Chongqing Tongliang Long	27	−5	32
10	Tianjin Teda	28	+6	31
11	Hangzhou Greentown	27	0	31
12	Sichuan Jiuniu	27	−11	29
13	Henan Jianye	28	−3	28
14	Shenyang Urban	27	−13	26
15	Wuhan Three Towns	27	−7	22
16	Qingdao Jonoon	27	−22	14