Qingdao Youth Island v Yunnan Yukun prediction · Super League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 11:02

Qingdao Youth Island 1–1 Yunnan Yukun QINGDAO YOUTH ISLAND WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Qingdao Youth Island win~~44%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.875

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.822

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Qingdao Youth Island win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Qingdao Youth Island 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–24–32
1′KICK-OFF Qingdao Youth Island v Yunnan Yukun
18′Qingdao Youth Island ahead on 17′ through A. Yakubu. 1–0. 1–0 · 69–18–13
18′⚽ GOAL · 17' Qingdao Youth Island 1–0 Yunnan Yukun · A. Yakubu
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Qingdao Youth Island win: 44% at kick-off, 69% now
19′We said Qingdao Youth Island at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 1–0 · 69–18–13
26′We said Qingdao Youth Island at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–19–12
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 70–19–11
38′37′: N. Da Luz on the scoresheet for Qingdao Youth Island. 1–0 · 71–19–10
39′GOAL DISALLOWED · 37' N. Da Luz · Qingdao Youth Island
45′HALF-TIME Qingdao Youth Island 1–0 Yunnan Yukun
45′SECOND HALF Qingdao Youth Island 1–0 Yunnan Yukun
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Qingdao Youth Island win: 44% at kick-off, 74% now
57′We said Qingdao Youth Island at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
69′We said Qingdao Youth Island at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Yunnan Yukun · On: Duan Liuyu · Off: Xu Xin
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Yunnan Yukun · On: J. Saeter · Off: A. Ionita II
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Yunnan Yukun · On: Zhao Yuhao · Off: Hu Ruibao
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' X. Zhang · Qingdao Youth Island
73′72′: O. Taty Maritu on the scoresheet for Yunnan Yukun. 1–0 · 82–16–2
73′We said Qingdao Youth Island at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 1–1 · 22–60–18
73′⚽ GOAL · 72' Qingdao Youth Island 1–1 Yunnan Yukun · O. Taty Maritu (assist Abdusalam Bunyamin)
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Qingdao Youth Island win: 44% at kick-off, 22% now
73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Draw is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Qingdao Youth Island win 82%)
77′We said Qingdao Youth Island at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–66–15
79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' S. Memisevic · Qingdao Youth Island
81′We said Qingdao Youth Island at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–74–12
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Qingdao Youth Island win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Qingdao Youth Island · On: Xie Alexander · Off: X. Zhang
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Qingdao Youth Island · On: Liu Zhicheng · Off: Dong Yu
85′We said Qingdao Youth Island at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–83–8
90′1–1 at the end. Our 44% on Qingdao Youth Island misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Yunnan Yukun · On: Fei Ernanduo · Off: Abdusalam Bunyamin
92′We said Qingdao Youth Island at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
92′PENALTY MISSED · 90+1' A. Yakubu · Qingdao Youth Island
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Qingdao Youth Island win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
FTFULL TIME Qingdao Youth Island 1–1 Yunnan Yukun
FTQingdao Youth Island 1–1 Yunnan Yukun · Qingdao Youth Island win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Qingdao Youth Island are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Qingdao Youth Island 44%, draw 24%, Yunnan Yukun 32%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Qingdao Youth Island v Yunnan YukunBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Qingdao Youth Island win44%

Draw24%

Yunnan Yukun win32%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 08:30

RoundMatchday 29

VenueQingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center

Line-ups

Qingdao Youth Island

4-2-3-1

Yunnan Yukun

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Qingdao Youth Island

Yunnan Yukun

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · the Chinese Super League

Last match: 17 Oct · the Chinese Super League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Yunnan Yukun	28	−3	39
7	Qingdao Youth Island	28	−6	38

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Qingdao Youth Island

4-2-3-1

16 Hao Li

19 Yu Dong

5 Samir Memisevic

15 Peng Wang

22 Gengrui Wang

8 Xiuwei Zhang

28 Chengdong Zhang

10 Nelson Luz

2 Bruno Viana

11 Davidson

9 Aziz

Coach · –

Substitutes

26 · Shibo Liu

33 · Zhicheng Liu

4 · Elnizar Lohman

20 · Longhai He

32 · Haifeng Ding

3 · Honglüe Zhao

30 · Yang Zhanpeng

31 · Xie Chujun

18 · Barak Braunshtain

35 · Song Nan

29 · Jia Weiwei

27 · Aifeierding Aisikaer

Yunnan Yukun

4-3-3

23 Zhifeng Wang

3 Wang-Kit Tsui

33 Andrei Burcă

2 Ruibao Hu

21 Zihao Yang

10 Alexandru Ioniță

8 Xin Xu

34 Caio Vinícius

39 Bunyamin Abdusalam

9 Cléber

11 Oscar Taty Maritu

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · Shengjun Qiu

14 · Xinghao Wang

1 · Yaxiong Bao

26 · Chenliang Zhang

16 · Zhang Xiangshuo

17 · Sun Xuelong

22 · Liuyu Duan

30 · John Hou Sæter

6 · Yuhao Zhao

28 · Jiahui Rong

36 · Ernanduo Fei

Our number · qingdao youth island winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

44% The market38%

Us44%

~~Market~~38%

We make Qingdao Youth Island a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Qingdao Youth Island v Yunnan Yukun~~1.77 – 1.47

~~Form · last six in Super League this season · since 14 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 38 v 39~~7 v 6

~~The market · Qingdao Youth Island win~~38% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Qingdao Youth Island win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Qingdao Youth Island win	44%	38%	+6
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Yunnan Yukun win	32%	36%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	62%	62%	0
Both teams to score	63%	65%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	83%	82%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	40%	42%	−2
Qingdao Youth Island or draw	68%	64%	+4
Qingdao Youth Island clean sheet	24%	–	–
Yunnan Yukun clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 4.8 5.4 4.3 2.1 1 6.6 10.6 7.3 3.6 2 6.2 8.7 6.3 3.1 3 3.6 5.2 3.7 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Qingdao Youth Island down, Yunnan Yukun across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,428 Super League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.0% of games this season, across 224 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Qingdao Youth Island at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Yunnan Yukun away: 1.83 scored, 4.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.77 goals for Qingdao Youth Island, 1.47 for Yunnan Yukun. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 08:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~YUN 2–3 QIN · YUN 1–0 QIN · QIN 0–0 YUN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League this season · since 14 Aug

QINGDAO YOUTH ISLAND

DWDDLL0–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 0–1

YUNNAN YUKUN

WDLWLD3–1 · 3–3 · 0–6 · 5–0 · 1–7 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chengdu Better City	28	+17	52
2	Dalian Zhixing	28	+2	46
3	Beijing Guoan	28	+20	44
4	Shandong Luneng	28	+8	41
5	SHANGHAI SIPG	28	+12	39
6	Yunnan Yukun	28	−3	39
7	Qingdao Youth Island	28	−6	38
8	Shanghai Shenhua	28	+14	37
9	Chongqing Tongliang Long	28	−5	33
10	Tianjin Teda	28	+6	31
11	Hangzhou Greentown	28	−5	31
12	Sichuan Jiuniu	28	−13	29
13	Shenyang Urban	28	−9	29
14	Henan Jianye	28	−3	28
15	Wuhan Three Towns	28	−9	22
16	Qingdao Jonoon	28	−26	14