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Model 1.1

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Qingdao Youth Island v Dalian Zhixing

Qingdao Youth Island
0–4Full time
Dalian Zhixing

Super League · SUN 11 OCT · Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41
Qingdao Youth Island 0–4 Dalian Zhixing QINGDAO YOUTH ISLAND WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Qingdao Youth Island win46%
The market said36%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.826
The market’s Brier score0.628

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 24 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Qingdao Youth Island win at 46%.
  2. 2′Much as we predicted: Qingdao Youth Island was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–27–27
  3. 3′Much as we predicted: Qingdao Youth Island was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–27–27
  4. 7′Dalian Zhixing ahead on 7′ through F. Acheampong. 0–1. 0–1 · 21–24–55
  5. 8′We said Qingdao Youth Island at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–24–55
  6. 10′Dalian Zhixing ahead on 7′ through F. Acheampong. 0–1. 0–1 · 21–24–55
  7. 11′We said Qingdao Youth Island at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 20%. 0–1 · 20–24–55
  8. 16′We said Qingdao Youth Island at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–25–56
  9. 20′We said Qingdao Youth Island at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–25–57
  10. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Qingdao Youth Island win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
  11. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Qingdao Youth Island win: 46% at kick-off, 17% now
  12. 32′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 15–25–60
  13. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Qingdao Youth Island win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
  14. 33′We said Qingdao Youth Island at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–60
  15. 33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Bruno Viana · Qingdao Youth Island
  16. 41′We said Qingdao Youth Island at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–25–63
  17. 42′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 12–25–63
  18. 45′HALF-TIME Qingdao Youth Island 0–1 Dalian Zhixing
  19. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Qingdao Youth Island win: 46% at kick-off, 11% now
  20. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Dalian Zhixing win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Qingdao Youth Island win 11%)
  21. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Qingdao Youth Island · On: He Longhai · Off: Lohman Elnizar Corrected
  22. 46′SECOND HALF Qingdao Youth Island 0–1 Dalian Zhixing
  23. 55′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Dalian Zhixing · On: Yang Mingrui · Off: Luo Jing
  24. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Qingdao Youth Island · On: Yang Zhanpeng · Off: Meng Jingchao Corrected
  25. 69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' S. Memisevic · Qingdao Youth Island
  26. 70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Qingdao Youth Island 0–2 Dalian Zhixing · F. Acheampong
  27. 76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Qingdao Youth Island 0–3 Dalian Zhixing · F. Acheampong
  28. 77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Qingdao Youth Island 0–3 Dalian Zhixing · F. Acheampong
  29. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Qingdao Youth Island · On: Jia Weiwei · Off: X. Zhang Corrected
  30. 80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Yang Zhanpeng · Qingdao Youth Island
  31. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Dalian Zhixing · On: Zhang Huachen · Off: Liao Jintao Corrected
  32. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Dalian Zhixing · On: Huang Shan · Off: N. Stanciu Corrected
  33. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Dalian Zhixing · On: Feng Jing · Off: P. Delgado Corrected
  34. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Qingdao Youth Island · On: Xie Alexander · Off: N. Da Luz Corrected
  35. 88′⚽ GOAL · 87' Qingdao Youth Island 0–4 Dalian Zhixing · F. Acheampong
  36. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Dalian Zhixing · On: Sun Kangbo · Off: Lu Zhuoyi Corrected
  37. FTFULL TIME Qingdao Youth Island 0–4 Dalian Zhixing
  38. FTQingdao Youth Island 0–4 Dalian Zhixing · Qingdao Youth Island win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Qingdao Youth Island win46%
Draw28%
Dalian Zhixing win27%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

VenueQingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center

Line-ups

Qingdao Youth Island

4-2-3-1

Dalian Zhixing

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Qingdao Youth Island

Dalian Zhixing

36Days since last match36
0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Dalian Zhixing26−440
8Qingdao Youth Island26−138

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Qingdao Youth Island

4-2-3-1

16 H. Li

4 Lohman Elnizar

5 S. Memisevic

2 Bruno Viana

22 Wang Gengrui

8 X. Zhang

28 Zhang Chengdong

10 N. Da Luz

21 Meng Jingchao

11 Davidson

9 A. Yakubu

Coach · Bowen Huang

Substitutes

26 · Liu Shibo

36 · Sun Jie

3 · Zhao Honglue

32 · Ding Haifeng

15 · Wang Peng

20 · He Longhai

35 · Nan Song

18 · B. Braunshtain

6 · S. Jin

31 · Xie Alexander

29 · Jia Weiwei

30 · Yang Zhanpeng

Dalian Zhixing

4-2-3-1

20 Liu Weiguo

38 Lu Zhuoyi

2 M. Traore

6 Song Yue

12 Feng Boxuan

40 Liao Jintao

4 I. Alimi

9 P. Delgado

10 N. Stanciu

7 Luo Jing

30 F. Acheampong

Coach · Guoxu Li

Substitutes

1 · Ge Peng

26 · Huang Zihao

33 · Cao Haiqing

15 · Wen Jiabao

28 · Sun Kangbo

21 · Lu Peng

8 · Zhang Huachen

23 · Huang Shan

44 · Feng Jing

27 · Yang Mingrui

24 · Bi Jinhao

59 · L. Xiao

Our number · qingdao youth island winPublished 11 Oct 11:02
46% The market42%
Us46%
Market42%

We make Qingdao Youth Island a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45%50% 9 OCT 06:1811 OCT 11:06
Our probability · qingdao youth island win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 36% to 42% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Qingdao Youth Island win46%42%+4
Draw28%27%+1
Dalian Zhixing win27%32%−5
Over 2.5 goals45%55%−10
Both teams to score49%59%−10
Over 1.5 goals71%77%−7
Over 3.5 goals24%35%−11
Qingdao Youth Island or draw73%68%+5
Qingdao Youth Island clean sheet36%––
Dalian Zhixing clean sheet24%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%
0123450 9.5 8.1 4.5 1 11.5 12.9 6.3 2.2 2 8.7 8.7 4.5 3 4.2 4.3 2.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Qingdao Youth Island down, Dalian Zhixing across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.51 of 3
Both scored1 of 3
Last meetingsDAL 2–3 QIN · DAL 0–2 QIN · QIN 2–0 DAL

Form · last six in Super League

QINGDAO YOUTH ISLAND

WDDWDD2–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–2

DALIAN ZHIXING

WLDWDW1–0 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Chengdu Better City27+2052
2Beijing Guoan27+1946
3Shanghai Shenhua27+1244
4Shandong Luneng26+343
5SHANGHAI SIPG27+941
6Dalian Zhixing26−440
7Tianjin Teda27+538
8Qingdao Youth Island26−138
9Yunnan Yukun27−338
10Hangzhou Greentown27036
11Henan Jianye27−234
12Chongqing Tongliang Long26−531
13Sichuan Jiuniu27−1129
14Wuhan Three Towns26−726
15Shenyang Urban26−1325
16Qingdao Jonoon27−2221

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.