Qingdao Jonoon v Shenyang Urban prediction · Super League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Qingdao Jonoon 0–4 Shenyang Urban QINGDAO JONOON WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Qingdao Jonoon win~~39%

~~The market said~~10%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.634

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.095

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Qingdao Jonoon win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Qingdao Jonoon 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–25–35
1′KICK-OFF Qingdao Jonoon v Shenyang Urban
8′7′: G. Mbenza on the scoresheet for Shenyang Urban, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 19–20–61
8′We said Qingdao Jonoon at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–20–61
8′⚽ GOAL · 7' Qingdao Jonoon 0–1 Shenyang Urban · G. Mbenza
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Qingdao Jonoon win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' Shenyang Urban win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Qingdao Jonoon win 19%)
12′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Li Suda · Qingdao Jonoon
30′We said Qingdao Jonoon at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–22–64
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 14–22–64
31′SUBSTITUTION · 30' Shenyang Urban · On: A. Kouame · Off: G. Mbenza
42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Pan Ximing · Shenyang Urban
45′HALF-TIME Qingdao Jonoon 0–1 Shenyang Urban
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Jin Yangyang · Qingdao Jonoon
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Qingdao Jonoon · On: Sun Zheng'ao · Off: Li Suda
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Qingdao Jonoon · On: Kuang Zhaolei · Off: Liu Guobao
46′SECOND HALF Qingdao Jonoon 0–1 Shenyang Urban
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' M. Ristic · Qingdao Jonoon
50′We said Qingdao Jonoon at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–68
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Qingdao Jonoon win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
51′SUBSTITUTION · 51' Shenyang Urban · On: Felipe · Off: H. Zhang
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Qingdao Jonoon · On: Liu Xinyu · Off: Che Shiwei
58′Shenyang Urban ahead on 57′ through Jeffinho. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–6–93
58′We said Qingdao Jonoon at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–6–93
58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Qingdao Jonoon 0–2 Shenyang Urban · Jeffinho
67′Qingdao Jonoon are down to ten from 67′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–2 · 1–4–95
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Jin Yangyang · Qingdao Jonoon
67′🟥 RED CARD · 67' Jin Yangyang · Qingdao Jonoon
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Qingdao Jonoon · On: Yi Xinyang · Off: C. Strandberg
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Qingdao Jonoon · On: Ngan Cheuk-Pan · Off: M. Edjouma
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Shenyang Urban · On: Yan Dinghao · Off: Tian Deao
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Shenyang Urban · On: Gao Jiarun · Off: D. Mawlanniyaz
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Shenyang Urban · On: Tian Yinong · Off: Li Tixiang
86′A. Kouame scores for Shenyang Urban on 85′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Qingdao Jonoon 0–3 Shenyang Urban · A. Kouame
90′90′: A. Kouame on the scoresheet for Shenyang Urban, making it 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
90′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 0–4 · 0–0–100
90′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Qingdao Jonoon 0–4 Shenyang Urban · A. Kouame
FTFULL TIME Qingdao Jonoon 0–4 Shenyang Urban
FTQingdao Jonoon 0–4 Shenyang Urban · Qingdao Jonoon win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Qingdao Jonoon just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Qingdao Jonoon 39%, draw 25%, Shenyang Urban 36%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Qingdao Jonoon v Shenyang UrbanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Qingdao Jonoon win39%

Draw25%

Shenyang Urban win36%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:35

RoundMatchday 28

VenueQingdao Youth Football Stadium

Line-ups

Qingdao Jonoon

4-2-3-1

Shenyang Urban

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Qingdao Jonoon

Shenyang Urban

8Days since last match6

Last match: 9 Oct · the Chinese Super League

Last match: 11 Oct · the Chinese Super League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Shenyang Urban	27	−13	26
16	Qingdao Jonoon	27	−22	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Qingdao Jonoon

4-2-3-1

28 Mu Pengfei

37 Wei Zixian

4 Jin Yangyang

23 Song Long

29 Li Suda

20 Gong Ruicong

6 M. Edjouma

21 Liu Guobao

30 Che Shiwei

34 Jin Yonghao

10 C. Strandberg

Coach · Milan Ristic

Substitutes

1 · Liu Jun

43 · M. Jappar

14 · Sun Zheng'ao

16 · Li Hailong

17 · Wang Qiao

52 · Yi Xinyang

24 · Ngan Cheuk-Pan

47 · Zheng Cuanhui

51 · Hu Ziyu

53 · Cui Jingyao

9 · Liu Xinyu

27 · Kuang Zhaolei

Shenyang Urban

3-4-3

29 Zhang Yan

34 H. Zhang

26 Yuan Mincheng

3 Pan Ximing

5 D. Mawlanniyaz

18 Li Tixiang

36 Tian Deao

11 Chen Binbin

10 T. Kunimoto

9 G. Mbenza

47 Jeffinho

Coach · Sasa Kolic

Substitutes

16 · T. Wang

28 · Xu Dong

27 · Gao Jiarun

33 · Tian Yinong

35 · Li Haoran

30 · Pang Shenghan

8 · Yan Dinghao

15 · Felipe

22 · G. Liu

7 · A. Kouame

17 · Tian Yuda

Our number · qingdao jonoon winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 05:21 · locked at kick-off

39% The market10%

Us39%

~~Market~~10%

We make Qingdao Jonoon a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 10%. We are 29 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Qingdao Jonoon v Shenyang Urban~~1.58 – 1.49

~~Form · last six in Super League this season · since 8 Aug~~W0 D0 L6 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 14 v 26~~16 v 14

~~The market · Qingdao Jonoon win~~10% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Qingdao Jonoon win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 10% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Qingdao Jonoon win	39%	10%	+29
Draw	25%	15%	+10
Shenyang Urban win	36%	75%	−39
Over 2.5 goals	59%	68%	−9
Both teams to score	61%	54%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	81%	85%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	37%	48%	−11
Qingdao Jonoon or draw	64%	25%	+39
Qingdao Jonoon clean sheet	23%	–	–
Shenyang Urban clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 5.6 6.5 5.2 2.6 1 6.9 11.4 7.9 3.9 2 5.8 8.4 6.1 3.1 3 3.1 4.4 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Qingdao Jonoon down, Shenyang Urban across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,421 Super League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 217 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Shenyang Urban away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Qingdao Jonoon, 1.49 for Shenyang Urban. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SHE 2–1 QIN · SHE 0–0 QIN · QIN 2–0 SHE · SHE 0–3 QIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League this season · since 8 Aug

QINGDAO JONOON

LLLLLL0–1 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 1–5 · 1–2 · 0–3

SHENYANG URBAN

LDLLLD1–2 · 4–4 · 1–2 · 0–5 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chengdu Better City	27	+20	52
2	Dalian Zhixing	27	0	43
3	Beijing Guoan	27	+19	41
4	Shandong Luneng	27	+3	38
5	Yunnan Yukun	27	−3	38
6	Qingdao Youth Island	27	−5	38
7	SHANGHAI SIPG	27	+9	36
8	Shanghai Shenhua	27	+12	34
9	Chongqing Tongliang Long	27	−5	32
10	Tianjin Teda	28	+6	31
11	Hangzhou Greentown	27	0	31
12	Sichuan Jiuniu	27	−11	29
13	Henan Jianye	28	−3	28
14	Shenyang Urban	27	−13	26
15	Wuhan Three Towns	27	−7	22
16	Qingdao Jonoon	27	−22	14