Home › Football › Super League › Qingdao Jonoon v Beijing Guoan

Qingdao Jonoon v Beijing Guoan

Qingdao Jonoon

0–3Full time

Beijing Guoan

Super League · FRI 9 OCT · Qingdao Youth Football Stadium

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 15:20

Qingdao Jonoon 0–3 Beijing Guoan BEIJING GUOAN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Beijing Guoan win~~56%

~~The market said~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.295

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.158

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Qingdao Jonoon win23%

Draw22%

Beijing Guoan win56%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 12:35

Venue · Qingdao Youth Football Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Qingdao Jonoon

4-4-2

28 Mu Pengfei

37 Wei Zixian

4 Jin Yangyang

23 Song Long

29 Li Suda

7 Y. Yeboah

20 Gong Ruicong

6 M. Edjouma

34 Jin Yonghao

9 Liu Xinyu

32 L. Tufegdzic

Coach · Milan Ristic

Substitutes

1 · Liu Jun

43 · M. Jappar

14 · Sun Zheng'ao

33 · Liu Jiashen

16 · Li Hailong

17 · Wang Qiao

52 · Yi Xinyang

30 · Che Shiwei

47 · Zheng Cuanhui

22 · Yang Cong

10 · C. Strandberg

21 · Liu Guobao

Beijing Guoan

4-4-2

34 Hou Sen

21 Yue Tze-Nam

25 U. Spajic

5 G. Ramos

26 Bai Yang

37 Cao Yongjing

8 A. Konte

7 Serginho

11 Lin Liangming

29 F. Abreu

9 Zhang Yuning

Coach · Nick Montgomery

Substitutes

31 · S. Liu

22 · Han Jiaqi

4 · Li Lei

27 · Wang Gang

30 · Fan Shuangjie

47 · Deng Jiefu

10 · Zhang Xizhe

6 · Chi Zhongguo

36 · Jia Feifan

24 · Abdugheni Abduhamit

41 · Cheng Xi

17 · Yang Liyu

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Qingdao Jonoon

4-4-2

28 Mu Pengfei

37 Wei Zixian

4 Jin Yangyang

23 Song Long

29 Li Suda

7 Y. Yeboah

20 Gong Ruicong

6 M. Edjouma

34 Jin Yonghao

9 Liu Xinyu

32 L. Tufegdzic

Coach · Milan Ristic

Substitutes

1 · Liu Jun

43 · M. Jappar

14 · Sun Zheng'ao

33 · Liu Jiashen

16 · Li Hailong

17 · Wang Qiao

52 · Yi Xinyang

30 · Che Shiwei

47 · Zheng Cuanhui

22 · Yang Cong

10 · C. Strandberg

21 · Liu Guobao

Beijing Guoan

4-4-2

34 Hou Sen

21 Yue Tze-Nam

25 U. Spajic

5 G. Ramos

26 Bai Yang

37 Cao Yongjing

8 A. Konte

7 Serginho

11 Lin Liangming

29 F. Abreu

9 Zhang Yuning

Coach · Nick Montgomery

Substitutes

31 · S. Liu

22 · Han Jiaqi

4 · Li Lei

27 · Wang Gang

30 · Fan Shuangjie

47 · Deng Jiefu

10 · Zhang Xizhe

6 · Chi Zhongguo

36 · Jia Feifan

24 · Abdugheni Abduhamit

41 · Cheng Xi

17 · Yang Liyu

Our number · beijing guoan winPublished 9 Oct 12:32

56% The market66%

Us56%

~~Market~~66%

We make Beijing Guoan a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–2.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · beijing guoan win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 68% to 66% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Qingdao Jonoon win	23%	16%	+7
Draw	22%	19%	+3
Beijing Guoan win	56%	66%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	65%	69%	−4
Both teams to score	63%	62%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	85%	86%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	44%	49%	−5
Qingdao Jonoon or draw	44%	34%	+10
Qingdao Jonoon clean sheet	13%	–	–
Beijing Guoan clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 4.3 6.8 7.5 5.2 2.8 1 4.0 9.6 9.2 6.4 3.5 2 2.9 5.7 5.8 4.1 2.2 3 2.5 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Qingdao Jonoon down, Beijing Guoan across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,412 Super League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.7% of games this season, across 208 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Beijing Guoan away: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Qingdao Jonoon, 2.11 for Beijing Guoan. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 12:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~BEI 4–2 QIN · BEI 2–4 QIN · QIN 1–1 BEI · BEI 6–0 QIN

Form · last six in Super League

QINGDAO JONOON

LLLLLL0–2 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 1–5 · 1–2

BEIJING GUOAN

WWWDDD4–0 · 4–2 · 3–0 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chengdu Better City	26	+21	52
2	Beijing Guoan	26	+16	43
3	Shandong Luneng	26	+3	43
4	Shanghai Shenhua	26	+6	41
5	Dalian Zhixing	26	−4	40
6	SHANGHAI SIPG	26	+7	38
7	Yunnan Yukun	26	+3	38
8	Qingdao Youth Island	26	−1	38
9	Hangzhou Greentown	26	+2	36
10	Tianjin Teda	26	+4	35
11	Henan Jianye	26	−2	33
12	Chongqing Tongliang Long	26	−5	31
13	Sichuan Jiuniu	26	−11	28
14	Wuhan Three Towns	26	−7	26
15	Shenyang Urban	26	−13	25
16	Qingdao Jonoon	26	−19	21