Henan Jianye v Tianjin Teda prediction · Super League

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 15:31

Henan Jianye 0–1 Tianjin Teda HENAN JIANYE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Henan Jianye win~~42%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.752

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.813

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Henan Jianye win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Henan Jianye 42% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–27–30
1′KICK-OFF Henan Jianye v Tianjin Teda
16′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Haliq Ablahan · Henan Jianye
28′Tianjin Teda ahead on 27′ through Guilherme Schettine. 0–1. 0–1 · 14–24–62
28′⚽ GOAL · 27' Henan Jianye 0–1 Tianjin Teda · Guilherme Schettine
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Henan Jianye win: 42% at kick-off, 14% now
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Tianjin Teda win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Henan Jianye win 14%)
29′We said Henan Jianye at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 14–24–62
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Henan Jianye win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Xadas · Tianjin Teda
45′HALF-TIME Henan Jianye 0–1 Tianjin Teda
46′We said Henan Jianye at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
46′SECOND HALF Henan Jianye 0–1 Tianjin Teda
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Henan Jianye · On: Yin Congyao · Off: Haliq Ablahan Corrected
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Henan Jianye · On: O. Gerbig · Off: Lucas Maia Corrected
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Tianjin Teda · On: Ba Dun · Off: Wang Zhenghao Corrected
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Tianjin Teda · On: Wang Qiuming · Off: Xadas Corrected
65′We said Henan Jianye at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Henan Jianye · On: A. Abudulam · Off: Pedro Maranhao Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Henan Jianye · On: Zheng Dalun · Off: Zhong Yihao Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Tianjin Teda · On: Ji Shengpan · Off: Guilherme Schettine Corrected
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Henan Jianye win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
83′Henan Jianye have had 11 attempts to 5 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 0–9–91
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Yin Congyao · Henan Jianye
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Yan Bingliang · Tianjin Teda
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Henan Jianye · On: Yang Yilin · Off: Shinar Yeljan Corrected
96′Henan Jianye have had 13 attempts to 5 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 0–1–99
FTFULL TIME Henan Jianye 0–1 Tianjin Teda
FTHenan Jianye 0–1 Tianjin Teda · Henan Jianye win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Henan Jianye are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Henan Jianye 42%, draw 28%, Tianjin Teda 30%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Henan Jianye v Tianjin TedaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Henan Jianye win42%

Draw28%

Tianjin Teda win30%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 12:35

RoundMatchday 28

VenueZhengzhou Hanghai Stadium

Line-ups

Henan Jianye

4-2-3-1

Tianjin Teda

5-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Henan Jianye

Tianjin Teda

7Days since last match6

Last match: 9 Oct · the Chinese Super League

Last match: 10 Oct · the Chinese Super League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Tianjin Teda	27	+5	28
13	Henan Jianye	27	−2	28

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Henan Jianye

4-2-3-1

33 Shi Chenglong

4 Shinar Yeljan

2 Iago Maidana

23 Lucas Maia

11 N. Muhmet

15 Haliq Ablahan

6 Wang Shangyuan

8 Pedro Maranhao

10 Bruno Nazario

7 Zhong Yihao

9 Gustavo

Coach · Daniel Ramos

Substitutes

18 · Wang Guoming

17 · Wang Jinshuai

5 · Liu Jiahui

27 · Liu Yixin

3 · O. Gerbig

24 · Yin Congyao

25 · Yang Yilin

16 · Yang Kuo

13 · A. Abudulam

30 · Fan Xulin

39 · Osman Ekber

29 · Zheng Dalun

Tianjin Teda

5-3-2

25 Yan Bingliang

3 Wang Zhenghao

11 Xie Weijun

18 A. Cordoba

6 Wang Xianjun

31 Sun Ming-Him

10 C. Salvador

14 Huang Jiahui

8 Xadas

9 A. Quiles

7 Guilherme Schettine

Coach · Genwei Yu

Substitutes

21 · Qi Yuxi

30 · Wang Qiuming

38 · S. Li

20 · Ji Shengpan

17 · Wu Xinghan

28 · Guo Hao

29 · Ba Dun

24 · Chen Zhexuan

22 · Li Yongjia

16 · Liu Shuai

40 · Shi Yan

Our number · henan jianye winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:01 · locked at kick-off

42% The market45%

Us42%

~~Market~~45%

We make Henan Jianye a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Henan Jianye v Tianjin Teda~~1.37 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Super League this season · since 15 Aug~~W0 D5 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 28 v 28~~13 v 12

~~The market · Henan Jianye win~~45% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Henan Jianye win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Henan Jianye win	42%	45%	−3
Draw	28%	28%	0
Tianjin Teda win	30%	27%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	45%	49%	−4
Both teams to score	50%	53%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	71%	72%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	24%	29%	−5
Henan Jianye or draw	70%	73%	−3
Henan Jianye clean sheet	34%	–	–
Tianjin Teda clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 9.6 8.7 5.2 1 10.9 13.2 6.8 2.6 2 7.9 8.4 4.6 3 3.6 3.9 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Henan Jianye down, Tianjin Teda across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,420 Super League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.9% of games this season, across 216 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Henan Jianye at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Tianjin Teda away: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Henan Jianye, 1.10 for Tianjin Teda. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 16 Oct 12:17. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~TIA 1–2 HEN · TIA 1–0 HEN · HEN 3–4 TIA · TIA 1–0 HEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League this season · since 15 Aug

HENAN JIANYE

LDDDDD1–4 · 4–4 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–2

TIANJIN TEDA

LDDWWW2–4 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chengdu Better City	27	+20	52
2	Dalian Zhixing	27	0	43
3	Beijing Guoan	27	+19	41
4	Shandong Luneng	27	+3	38
5	Yunnan Yukun	27	−3	38
6	Qingdao Youth Island	27	−5	38
7	SHANGHAI SIPG	27	+9	36
8	Shanghai Shenhua	27	+12	34
9	Chongqing Tongliang Long	27	−5	32
10	Hangzhou Greentown	27	0	31
11	Sichuan Jiuniu	27	−11	29
12	Tianjin Teda	27	+5	28
13	Henan Jianye	27	−2	28
14	Shenyang Urban	27	−13	26
15	Wuhan Three Towns	27	−7	22
16	Qingdao Jonoon	27	−22	14