Henan Jianye v Beijing Guoan

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Beijing Guoan win at 43%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Beijing Guoan 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 32–26–43
3. 1′KICK-OFF Henan Jianye v Beijing Guoan
4. 21′Bruno Nazario scores for Henan Jianye on 20′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 60–22–18
5. 21′⚽ GOAL · 20' Henan Jianye 1–0 Beijing Guoan · Bruno Nazario
6. 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Beijing Guoan win: 43% at kick-off, 18% now
7. 21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Henan Jianye win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Beijing Guoan win 40%)
8. 22′We said Beijing Guoan at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–0 · 60–22–18
9. 27′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Pedro Maranhao · Henan Jianye
10. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 61–23–16
11. 30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Chi Zhongguo · Beijing Guoan
12. 35′We said Beijing Guoan at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 62–23–14
13. 35′34′: Gustavo on the scoresheet for Henan Jianye, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 86–10–4
14. 35′⚽ GOAL · 34' Henan Jianye 2–0 Beijing Guoan · Gustavo
15. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Beijing Guoan win: 43% at kick-off, 4% now
16. 36′We said Beijing Guoan at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–0 · 86–10–4
17. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Beijing Guoan win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
18. 42′Henan Jianye ahead on 42′ through Gustavo. 3–0. 3–0 · 97–3–1
19. 42′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 97–3–1
20. 42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Henan Jianye 3–0 Beijing Guoan · Gustavo
21. 45′HALF-TIME Henan Jianye 3–0 Beijing Guoan
22. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Abdugheni Abduhamit · Beijing Guoan
23. 46′SECOND HALF Henan Jianye 3–0 Beijing Guoan
24. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Beijing Guoan · On: Zhang Xizhe · Off: Chi Zhongguo
25. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Beijing Guoan · On: U. Spajic · Off: Abdugheni Abduhamit
26. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Beijing Guoan · On: Wang Gang · Off: Yue Tze-Nam
27. 66′Zhang Xizhe scores for Beijing Guoan on 65′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 95–4–1
28. 66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Henan Jianye 3–1 Beijing Guoan · Zhang Xizhe
29. 67′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 95–4–1
30. 70′69′: Deng Jiefu on the scoresheet for Beijing Guoan, making it 3–2. 3–2 · 77–19–4
31. 70′⚽ GOAL · 69' Henan Jianye 3–2 Beijing Guoan · Deng Jiefu
32. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Beijing Guoan · On: Z. Jiang · Off: Bai Yang
33. 71′5 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 78–19–4
34. 74′Beijing Guoan level it on 73′ through Lin Liangming. 3–3. 3–3 · 16–63–20
35. 74′We said Beijing Guoan at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 3–3 · 16–63–20
36. 74′⚽ GOAL · 73' Henan Jianye 3–3 Beijing Guoan · Lin Liangming
37. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Beijing Guoan win: 43% at kick-off, 20% now
38. 74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Henan Jianye win 79%)
39. 75′14 shots for Henan Jianye, 5 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 3–3 · 16–65–19
40. 76′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 3–3 · 15–67–18
41. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Henan Jianye · On: Zheng Dalun · Off: Liu Jiahui
42. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Henan Jianye · On: He Chao · Off: Zhong Yihao
43. 81′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Shi Chenglong · Henan Jianye
44. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Beijing Guoan win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
45. 82′Zhang Yuning scores for Beijing Guoan on 82′ — 3–4. 3–4 · 1–9–90
46. 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Henan Jianye 3–4 Beijing Guoan · Zhang Yuning
47. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Beijing Guoan win: 43% at kick-off, 90% now
48. 82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Beijing Guoan win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 78%)
49. 83′Zhang Yuning scores for Beijing Guoan on 81′ — 3–4. 3–4 · 0–8–91
50. 83′We said Beijing Guoan at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 3–4 · 0–8–91
51. 84′7 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–4 · 0–7–92
52. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Beijing Guoan win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
53. 88′We said Beijing Guoan at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 3–4 · 0–5–95
54. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Henan Jianye · On: Fan Xulin · Off: Liu Yixin
55. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Beijing Guoan · On: Cheng Xi · Off: Serginho
56. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' U. Spajic · Beijing Guoan
57. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Bruno Nazario · Henan Jianye
58. 102′SUBSTITUTION · 90+12' Henan Jianye · On: Yin Congyao · Off: Bruno Nazario
59. FTFULL TIME Henan Jianye 3–4 Beijing Guoan
60. FTHenan Jianye 3–4 Beijing Guoan · Beijing Guoan win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.