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Hangzhou Greentown v SHANGHAI SIPG

Hangzhou Greentown

2–4Full time

SHANGHAI SIPG

Super League · FRI 9 OCT · Huizhou Olympic Stadium

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 15:49

Hangzhou Greentown 2–4 SHANGHAI SIPG HANGZHOU GREENTOWN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hangzhou Greentown win~~39%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.581

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.586

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Hangzhou Greentown win39%

Draw23%

SHANGHAI SIPG win38%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 13:00

Venue · Huizhou Olympic Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Hangzhou Greentown

4-2-3-1

33 Zhao Bo

25 Xu Junchi

5 Liu Haofan

36 L. Possignolo

26 Sun Guowen

22 Cheng Jin

4 Park Jin-Seob

7 Tao Qianglong

10 M. Tolic

28 A. Mitrita

18 Fang Hao

Coach · Ross Aloisi

Substitutes

1 · Dong Chunyu

24 · P. Zhao

3 · Wang Yang

16 · Tong Lei

17 · Wang Shiqin

38 · A. Zhang

8 · A. N'Doumbou

29 · Zhang Jiaqi

14 · Wu Wei

6 · Bao Shengxin

9 · Gao Di

11 · Y. Wang

SHANGHAI SIPG

3-4-2-1

1 Yan Junling

8 Jean Claude

13 Wei Zhen

40 Yusup Umidjan

22 A. Yang

21 O. Melendo

10 Mateus Vital

32 Li Shuai

33 Liu Zhurun

17 P. O. Ampem

45 Leonardo

Coach · Kevin Muscat

Substitutes

12 · Chen Wei

4 · Wang Shenchao

28 · Yue Xin

19 · Wang Zhenao

5 · Zhang Linpeng

23 · Fu Huan

6 · Zhang Yuan

20 · Yang Shiyuan

47 · Kuai Jiwen

7 · Wu Lei

49 · X. Li

38 · Lu Yongtao

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Hangzhou Greentown

4-2-3-1

33 Zhao Bo

25 Xu Junchi

5 Liu Haofan

36 L. Possignolo

26 Sun Guowen

22 Cheng Jin

4 Park Jin-Seob

7 Tao Qianglong

10 M. Tolic

28 A. Mitrita

18 Fang Hao

Coach · Ross Aloisi

Substitutes

1 · Dong Chunyu

24 · P. Zhao

3 · Wang Yang

16 · Tong Lei

17 · Wang Shiqin

38 · A. Zhang

8 · A. N'Doumbou

29 · Zhang Jiaqi

14 · Wu Wei

6 · Bao Shengxin

9 · Gao Di

11 · Y. Wang

SHANGHAI SIPG

3-4-2-1

1 Yan Junling

8 Jean Claude

13 Wei Zhen

40 Yusup Umidjan

22 A. Yang

21 O. Melendo

10 Mateus Vital

32 Li Shuai

33 Liu Zhurun

17 P. O. Ampem

45 Leonardo

Coach · Kevin Muscat

Substitutes

12 · Chen Wei

4 · Wang Shenchao

28 · Yue Xin

19 · Wang Zhenao

5 · Zhang Linpeng

23 · Fu Huan

6 · Zhang Yuan

20 · Yang Shiyuan

47 · Kuai Jiwen

7 · Wu Lei

49 · X. Li

38 · Lu Yongtao

Our number · hangzhou greentown winPublished 9 Oct 13:02

39% The market38%

Us39%

~~Market~~38%

We make Hangzhou Greentown a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.8.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hangzhou Greentown win	39%	38%	+1
Draw	23%	24%	−1
SHANGHAI SIPG win	38%	38%	0
Over 2.5 goals	69%	71%	−2
Both teams to score	69%	71%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	87%	87%	0
Over 3.5 goals	48%	51%	−3
Hangzhou Greentown or draw	62%	62%	0
Hangzhou Greentown clean sheet	17%	–	–
SHANGHAI SIPG clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.5 4.6 4.5 2.7 1 4.6 9.3 7.7 4.6 2.1 2 4.5 7.8 6.8 4.1 3 2.7 4.7 4.1 2.5 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hangzhou Greentown down, SHANGHAI SIPG across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,412 Super League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.7% of games this season, across 208 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 3.33 goals a meeting; 7 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hangzhou Greentown at home: 3.00 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). SHANGHAI SIPG away: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for Hangzhou Greentown, 1.79 for SHANGHAI SIPG. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 12:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 9

~~Both scored~~7 of 9

~~Last meetings~~SHA 2–2 HAN · SHA 3–0 HAN · HAN 2–2 SHA · SHA 3–1 HAN

Form · last six in Super League

HANGZHOU GREENTOWN

LLDWLW1–2 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 6–0 · 1–2 · 4–1

SHANGHAI SIPG

WWDWWD3–2 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chengdu Better City	26	+21	52
2	Beijing Guoan	26	+16	43
3	Shandong Luneng	26	+3	43
4	Shanghai Shenhua	26	+6	41
5	Dalian Zhixing	26	−4	40
6	SHANGHAI SIPG	26	+7	38
7	Yunnan Yukun	26	+3	38
8	Qingdao Youth Island	26	−1	38
9	Hangzhou Greentown	26	+2	36
10	Tianjin Teda	26	+4	35
11	Henan Jianye	26	−2	33
12	Chongqing Tongliang Long	26	−5	31
13	Sichuan Jiuniu	26	−11	28
14	Wuhan Three Towns	26	−7	26
15	Shenyang Urban	26	−13	25
16	Qingdao Jonoon	26	−19	21