Dalian Zhixing v Sichuan Jiuniu prediction · Super League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Dalian Zhixing 3–1 Sichuan Jiuniu DALIAN ZHIXING WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dalian Zhixing win~~52%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.341

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.277

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dalian Zhixing win at 52%.
1′Much as we predicted: Dalian Zhixing was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–25–23
1′KICK-OFF Dalian Zhixing v Sichuan Jiuniu
8′N. Stanciu scores for Dalian Zhixing on 8′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–15–9
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Dalian Zhixing 1–0 Sichuan Jiuniu · N. Stanciu
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Dalian Zhixing win: 52% at kick-off, 77% now
9′We published Dalian Zhixing at 52%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–15–9
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 77–16–7
33′SUBSTITUTION · 33' Dalian Zhixing · On: Song Yue · Off: Bi Jinhao
42′42′: Luo Jing on the scoresheet for Dalian Zhixing, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
42′We published Dalian Zhixing at 52%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Dalian Zhixing 2–0 Sichuan Jiuniu · Luo Jing
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Dalian Zhixing win: 52% at kick-off, 94% now
43′We published Dalian Zhixing at 52%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′HALF-TIME Dalian Zhixing 2–0 Sichuan Jiuniu
46′SECOND HALF Dalian Zhixing 2–0 Sichuan Jiuniu
53′Dalian Zhixing ahead on 52′ through F. Acheampong. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
53′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 99–1–0
53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Dalian Zhixing 3–0 Sichuan Jiuniu · F. Acheampong
57′We published Dalian Zhixing at 52%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Sichuan Jiuniu · On: Dai Wai-Tsun · Off: H. Shen
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Dalian Zhixing · On: Huang Shan · Off: Zhang Huachen
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Dalian Zhixing · On: Yang Mingrui · Off: P. Delgado
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Dalian Zhixing · On: Feng Jing · Off: Luo Jing
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Sichuan Jiuniu · On: Xia Dalong · Off: D. Owusu-Sekyere
90′Dai Wai-Tsun scores for Sichuan Jiuniu on 90′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
90′4 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Dalian Zhixing 3–1 Sichuan Jiuniu · Dai Wai-Tsun
FTFULL TIME Dalian Zhixing 3–1 Sichuan Jiuniu
FTDalian Zhixing 3–1 Sichuan Jiuniu · Dalian Zhixing win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dalian Zhixing are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dalian Zhixing 52%, draw 25%, Sichuan Jiuniu 23%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Dalian Zhixing v Sichuan JiuniuBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Dalian Zhixing win52%

Draw25%

Sichuan Jiuniu win23%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 28

VenueDalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium

Line-ups

Dalian Zhixing

4-2-3-1

Sichuan Jiuniu

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dalian Zhixing

Sichuan Jiuniu

6Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · the Chinese Super League

Last match: 9 Oct · the Chinese Super League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Dalian Zhixing	27	0	43
12	Sichuan Jiuniu	27	−11	29

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Dalian Zhixing

4-2-3-1

20 Liu Weiguo

38 Lu Zhuoyi

24 Bi Jinhao

2 M. Traore

12 Feng Boxuan

8 Zhang Huachen

4 I. Alimi

9 P. Delgado

10 N. Stanciu

7 Luo Jing

30 F. Acheampong

Coach · Guoxu Li

Substitutes

1 · Ge Peng

26 · Huang Zihao

33 · Cao Haiqing

15 · Wen Jiabao

28 · Sun Kangbo

5 · Peng Shunjie

21 · Lu Peng

23 · Huang Shan

6 · Song Yue

44 · Feng Jing

27 · Yang Mingrui

59 · L. Xiao

Sichuan Jiuniu

4-1-4-1

1 J. Ji

16 Tang Miao

3 Gabriel Xavier

46 H. Shen

14 Li Long

6 Yao Junsheng

31 D. Owusu-Sekyere

36 E. Kartsev

19 Zhang Yufeng

11 A. Ademi

7 Wesley Moraes

Coach · Robbie Neilson

Substitutes

35 · Wei Minzhe

49 · H. Zhang

2 · Tian Yifan

25 · Zhao Jianfei

56 · Wang Yuheng

10 · Dai Wai-Tsun

17 · Li Ning

39 · Yu Menghui

29 · Xia Dalong

54 · J. Yao

Our number · dalian zhixing winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:08 · locked at kick-off

52% The market57%

Us52%

~~Market~~57%

We make Dalian Zhixing a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dalian Zhixing v Sichuan Jiuniu~~1.78 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Super League this season · since 7 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 43 v 29~~2 v 12

~~The market · Dalian Zhixing win~~57% · ours 52%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dalian Zhixing win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dalian Zhixing win	52%	57%	−5
Draw	25%	23%	+2
Sichuan Jiuniu win	23%	20%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	54%	59%	−5
Both teams to score	55%	58%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	78%	79%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	33%	38%	−5
Dalian Zhixing or draw	77%	80%	−3
Dalian Zhixing clean sheet	34%	–	–
Sichuan Jiuniu clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.6 5.7 3.5 1 9.5 11.4 5.9 2.2 2 8.8 9.4 5.2 3 5.2 5.6 3.1 4 2.4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dalian Zhixing down, Sichuan Jiuniu across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,421 Super League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 217 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dalian Zhixing at home: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Sichuan Jiuniu away: 1.00 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.78 goals for Dalian Zhixing, 1.10 for Sichuan Jiuniu. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~SIC 1–1 DAL · DAL 2–1 SIC · SIC 1–1 DAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League this season · since 7 Aug

DALIAN ZHIXING

LDWDWW1–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 4–0

SICHUAN JIUNIU

LWDLDD0–4 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chengdu Better City	27	+20	52
2	Dalian Zhixing	27	0	43
3	Beijing Guoan	27	+19	41
4	Shandong Luneng	27	+3	38
5	Yunnan Yukun	27	−3	38
6	Qingdao Youth Island	27	−5	38
7	SHANGHAI SIPG	27	+9	36
8	Shanghai Shenhua	27	+12	34
9	Chongqing Tongliang Long	27	−5	32
10	Tianjin Teda	28	+6	31
11	Hangzhou Greentown	27	0	31
12	Sichuan Jiuniu	27	−11	29
13	Henan Jianye	28	−3	28
14	Shenyang Urban	27	−13	26
15	Wuhan Three Towns	27	−7	22
16	Qingdao Jonoon	27	−22	14